The fantasy football big board is starting to round into its final form entering the 2024 NFL season, which means we have a reasonable idea of where these players are going to be selected when your fantasy draft begins.
Here are some bust candidates who I believe could perform below their expectations this upcoming season.
Fantasy Football Busts for the 2024 NFL Season
For those of you who are a bit unfamiliar with the term “bust” in the realm of fantasy football, it can simply be described as a player who failed to meet expectations in a given season.
For example, Jonathan Taylor finished as RB33 overall in full-PPR formats, while Devin Singletary finished as the RB32 in 2023. So, why was Taylor considered a bust last year while Singletary wasn’t?
Much of this has to do with the expectations fantasy managers had for Taylor heading into last year, as he was selected as a top-10 running back in many fantasy drafts.
Taylor’s RB33 finish means his production came in far lower than expected, making him a bust. Singletary, on the other hand, had fairly low expectations heading into the season, which makes his RB32 finish far more in line with his projections.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott’s 4,516 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes to go with 242 rushing yards and another two scores — which led to a QB3 overall finish — may have felt like a surprise considering the lack of elite options outside of CeeDee Lamb. However, the Cowboys quarterback’s exceptional play was the main reason behind Dallas leading the league in scoring in 2023.
Prescott orchestrated an offense that generated a league-leading 71 trips to the red zone last year, proving he can still be an elite fantasy QB without an elite collection of playmakers at his disposal.
Sure, Jake Ferguson had a really nice year, and Brandin Cooks proved he still has something left in the tank, but I would argue this group of pass catchers outside of Lamb probably falls in the middle of the pack talent-wise across the NFL.
That fact, coupled with the loss of multiple offensive linemen and Tony Pollard’s departure from the backfield, makes me a bit skeptical of an encore performance in 2024.
Tyler Biadasz was a solid interior offensive lineman, and Tyron Smith was, at times, in the conversation for the league’s best offensive tackle. These losses could create protection issues and drop the efficiency of the Cowboys’ running game.
In theory, this could make Dallas a bit more reliant on Prescott, which could boost his passing-production ceiling.
But the loss of talent up front, coupled with a lack of playmakers outside of Lamb, has me a bit lower on Prescott entering 2024 than current consensus rankings.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Allow me to start by saying I loved what I saw from Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud in his rookie year. Numbers don’t tell the entire story of his success last year, but they do paint a pretty nice picture of how effective he was from the moment he stepped onto an NFL field.
Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns with just five interceptions were outstanding when you consider the situation he was stepping into with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz as his top options.
Not to mention, the addition of Stefon Diggs to the WR room certainly lends itself to a plausible jump in fantasy production from Stroud’s QB11 finish last year to a top-10 option in 2024.
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Yet, Stroud is currently being drafted as QB5 overall in fantasy drafts. As encouraging as his rookie season was and as noteworthy as the team’s offseason additions are, Stroud still has only one year of production under his belt.
Additionally, he doesn’t possess the type of elite dual-threat capabilities we see from other top fantasy quarterbacks, which makes Stroud’s fantasy production strictly tied to his passing.
The fantasy ceiling is certainly there for the second-year QB, but I’m just feeling like these statistical expectations may be a bit too high. That makes Stroud a potential bust candidate in relation to his aggressive ranking at this time.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Those fantasy managers who were skeptical that the Buffalo Bills would ever truly feature a running back with Josh Allen around got their answer.
James Cook had a great season last year, posting 1,122 rushing yards with an additional 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions and six total TDs. Those numbers were good for an RB12 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats.
Cook’s rushing and receiving yardage at the RB position both ranked inside the top 10, and he was among the top backs in the league with 5.6 yards per touch, which is impressive considering his above-average volume last season.
Yet, Cook’s usage in the red zone — and particularly inside the 5-yard line — is worth mentioning when trying to determine if he can repeat his fantasy production from a season ago. He actually saw seven fewer carries from inside the 5-yard line than Latavius Murray. Additionally, Allen had 14 carries of his own from this range last year.
This is the part where I mention the addition of rookie running back Ray Davis this year — a very physical runner with great contact balance and burst.
Will Cook be the leading ball carrier again for the Bills in 2024? Yes, I believe so. Still, Allen’s presence and a potential upgrade at the RB2 spot on the roster could limit Cook’s fantasy upside this season.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
When your carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry all drop from your rookie to sophomore campaign, it can be hard to believe a breakout season is on the horizon in Year 3. Now, combine those downward trends with the presence of a talented backup tailback, and we could have the recipe for a fantasy disaster.
Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Production
- 2023: 905 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 259 yards, and 9 TDs (RB19 overall)
- 2022: 1,050 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 yards, and 9 TDs (RB18 overall)
Kenneth Walker III has finished as a top-20 fantasy back in full-PPR formats in both years of his young career, but the fact that he lost 141 total touches to Zach Charbonnet last season should be a bit worrisome to fantasy managers.
There is no denying Walker’s physical talent and flashes of big-play potential built into a three-down frame, but the fact that the Michigan State product failed to significantly outplay Charbonnet in 2023 does bring some concern.
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This is especially true with a new coaching staff that didn’t draft either of these players since they could simply choose to utilize the most effective back on a weekly basis.
Unfortunately, Walker feels like he is currently being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor. Carrying a No. 45 overall ADP as RB17 off the board has me wanting to pass on Walker this year.
WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Price point is everything regarding whether a player can even be considered a bust if he produces a poor amount of fantasy production in a given season.
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams’ ADP at No. 19 overall in the second round as WR10 off the board means he will need to produce low-end WR1 numbers to meet the expectations tied to his current stock.
If you simply look at Adams’ résumé of fantasy production over the last eight seasons, it becomes pretty clear why fantasy managers feel comfortable selecting him in the second round.
Davante Adams Fantasy Positional Ranks Since 2016
- 2023: WR10
- 2022: WR3
- 2021: WR2
- 2020: WR1
- 2019: WR23 (WR6 on a points per-game basis)
- 2018: WR3
- 2017: WR14
- 2016: WR10
This type of sustained greatness likely means Adams will be making a trip to Canton, Ohio, somewhere in the very near future.
Yet, Adams’ current draft price would require you to pass on Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Jaylen Waddle, who I would argue are all in better fantasy situations approaching the 2024 season.
Something that can’t be denied is the elite target share Adams has seen during his days with the Raiders. Last year, Adams saw an absurd 33.1% of the team’s targets (175 total targets), which ranked second amongst wide receivers. Additionally, he managed to catch 100 passes for a fourth straight year, which includes his first two seasons with the Raiders.
Adams’ production of 103 receptions for 1,144 receiving yards and eight touchdowns was still a solid season from an overall production standpoint. But upon a closer look, there may be some cause for concern that Father Time is starting to tap him on the shoulder.
Yards Per Route Run With Positional Rank
2023: 2.03 (No. 30)
2022: 2.59 (No. 8)
Yards After Catch With Positional Rank
2023: 336 (No. 25)
2022: 493 (No. 6)
Are these all signs suggesting that Adams is nearing the end? Absolutely not. Adams is still amongst the best route-runners in the league, and the context of his quarterback situation certainly speaks to some of the drop in target efficiency last year.
However, that elite target share could realistically take a hit with the arrival of a generational TE prospect like Brock Bowers entering the mix this upcoming season.
Adams will turn 32 years old before the end of the 2024 season. Even if the decline in play is minimal, it may be enough to drastically impact his fantasy numbers if the quarterback play continues to subpar and he loses some of his elite volume to Bowers and other Raiders pass catchers.
Adams isn’t cratering down my rankings, but I do have him just outside of my top 20 at the position heading into 2024.
WR Hollywood Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
I understand Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the current final boss of the NFL. He is an outstanding player who has mastered the art of winning football games.
Yet, I will need to hear a more compelling argument from Hollywood Brown truthers than, “He’s catching passes from Mahomes,” before I believe in a career year from a player who has mostly been a fantasy disappointment throughout his first five years in the NFL.
Brown is coming off of a two-year run with the Cardinals where he failed to produce a single top-40 fantasy WR season with his former college quarterback. Brown finished 2023 as the overall WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four TDs.
Sure, he dealt with some injuries last year, but Brown’s average of 9.6 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats over 14 games played is nothing to write home about.
If you closer at his 2023 season, the numbers don’t get much more flattering. Brown’s 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception all ranked outside of the top 65 at the WR position and feel like a major disappointment for a player who ranked inside the top 30 in target share and air yards.
I am fully aware that the Chiefs’ passing offense had well-documented issues with drops and overall production last year. Yet, this pass-catching group still has the best fantasy TE to ever step on the field, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice’s role as an underneath RAC threat feels very secure.
This leaves a vertical playmaking threat potentially available in this offense, which would be far more exciting if the Chiefs didn’t trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who posted a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, the fastest mark posted by any player in the event’s history.
Without knowing Rice’s potential suspension situation at the moment, one can realistically see him and Kelce earning north of 100 targets this season. Worthy was utilized very often in the screen and manufactured touch game during his days at the University of Texas, which really isn’t Brown’s calling card.
Brown will certainly have his spike weeks and big performances, yet this is by far the best target competition he’s ever had in his career. This makes me nervous that he could fail to see 100 targets for the first time since his rookie year.
If the volume is a concern, then Brown’s long injury history, which includes issues with his right foot, sprains, bruises, an ankle injury, and a Lisfranc fracture over his playing career, is also a concern.
Brown is already dealing with a sternoclavicular injury that will sideline him for up to 4-6 weeks — which just confirms some of my durability concerns before he has even played his first game with Kansas City.
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Brown has one season where he has finished as a top 35 fantasy WR. That means his ADP price tag in the fifth round as the WR32 is way too high for a player entering the year with an injury.
Brown falls into the “better in real life than fantasy” category because of his exceptional top speed to vertically threaten opposing defenses. But I feel more comfortable projecting Kelce, Rice, and even Worthy as having larger roles in the passing game than Brown in 2024. This makes him a strong fade at his current price for me.
TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has the type of elite catch radius, excellent hands, and productive YAC ability that have led fantasy managers to believe the South Dakota State prospect is on the cusp of a breakout season for years now. Unfortunately, Goedert is entering his seventh season and still doesn’t have a 60-reception campaign on his résumé.
Goedert finished the 2023 season as the TE14 in full-PPR formats with 59 receptions for 592 yards and three scores. This marks the fourth straight year where he has finished outside of the top 10 at the TE position.
Perhaps Goedert’s zero receptions in the season opener was foreshadowing another weird year for the veteran tight end. Goedert failed to score 10 fantasy points in 10 of his 14 games in 2023 but scored seven or more fantasy points in 11 of his 14 games.
The regression of Jalen Hurts’ passing production, the Tush Push gobbling up red zone scoring opportunities, and the presence of two great receivers — A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith — certainly didn’t do Goedert any favors last year. Yet, those are all factors that will be present again this upcoming year. Goedert has never topped five receiving touchdowns in a season.
If Goedert could stay healthy, he probably wouldn’t be on this list. Yet, he has missed 14 games over the last four seasons, which has to be taken into consideration as to why his injury profile presents more risk than some of the other options ranked above him at the TE position.
TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku was outstanding over the last 12 games of the season last year, finishing as the TE1 in PPR formats with 62 receptions for 720 yards and six scores on 101 targets. It goes without saying, but that is outstanding production for the TE position.
Njoku’s fantasy-friendly role as a dynamic YAC threat with an abundance of manufactured touches in the screen game — finishing second at the TE position with 16 receptions in 2023 — helped accentuate what he does at a very high level.
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Yet, the return of Deshaun Watson under center, the addition of Jerry Jeudy at receiver, and the looming presence of Nick Chubb getting back into the fold do create some questions about whether or not Njoku’s role in 2024 will mirror what we saw from him over the final three months of his breakout season.
The upside is undeniable with Njoku from what we saw last year. He has the talent to prove me completely wrong with this suggestion, but he has finished outside of the top 20 at his position in two of the last four years.
Perhaps this is more of a bet against Watson than it is against Njoku, but his ADP as a top-10 TE comes with more risk than we may like to admit.