Drafting a fantasy football team can be boiled down to two simple tenets — identify breakouts and avoid busts. Today, we are looking at NFC South fantasy football busts as such players can quickly derail your season.
NFC South fantasy football busts for 2021
Let’s go team by team through the NFC South division and pinpoint some potential busts that fantasy managers may want to avoid for the 2021 NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons
Not every team has a player that screams “fantasy football bust.” For the Falcons, it feels like every player is properly priced. As such, we’re just going to identify the player most likely to disappoint.
Mike Davis, Running Back | ADP: 71
The Falcons’ new starting running back is coming off a season where he filled in admirably for an injured Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. Mike Davis averaged 14.9 PPR ppg and posted five RB1 finishes in the 2020 season. The Falcons were impressed enough to make Davis their clear primary back entering 2021.
The issue with Davis is he’s a 28-year-old former fourth-round pick that never really produced until last year. This is his first feature role in his entire career. By all accounts, he’s a replacement-level talent. With Davis, we’re banking solely on his situation and opportunity. There is nothing about Davis’ talent that tethers him to his role. At any moment, the Falcons could sign someone else or decide a different back has earned more work.
If Davis maintains his health and role for 17 games, he’s going to be worth his draft position. However, history suggests Davis’ production won’t be sustainable for a full season and this will devolve into a committee.
Kyle Pitts, Tight End | ADP: 41
There is a legitimate chance Kyle Pitts posts the greatest rookie tight end season of all time. It’s just really difficult to pay his current price to find out. Pitts already has the highest ADP of a rookie tight end in fantasy football history.
There are reasons to believe in him. He’s an incredible athlete and a tremendous talent. Matt Ryan has an opening at WR2 after Julio Jones’ departure to Tennessee. Pitts is a glorified wide receiver playing tight end. The problem is Pitts could have a fantastic rookie season and still be a fantasy football bust relative to his ADP.
In order for Pitts to justify his price, he has to not just be a top-five tight end, but also give you a decisive edge at the position. That means averaging around 13-14 PPR points per game. A good example of what that looks like is 2019 Darren Waller. That year, Waller caught 90 passes for 1,145 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 13.9 ppg. That would give Pitts par value for his cost. Doesn’t that feel like his ceiling?
The problem for Pitts as a rookie is his ballooning ADP takes away his upward mobility. His ceiling is baked into his price. As a result, it’s more likely he is one of the top NFC South fantasy football busts than the greatest rookie tight end of all time.
Carolina Panthers
With a new quarterback and an abundance of fantasy options, the Panthers have multiple players with fantasy football bust potential. With that being said, similar to the Falcons, their guys do seem to be properly priced. Let’s see who is most likely to bust.
Robby Anderson, Wide Receiver | ADP: 85
I don’t necessarily think Robby Anderson is going to be a bust. He was the clear WR1 on the Panthers last season, and his ADP is three rounds after D.J. Moore. Still, Moore is the more talented player. Moore’s possible ascension, combined with the quarterback downgrade from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold, could leave Anderson in WR4 territory.
Anderson averaged 14 PPR ppg last season, just 0.1 ppg less than Moore. The only thing standing between Moore and a WR1 season is touchdowns. With Curtis Samuel gone and Moore with another year of experience, that could change this season. Fantasy managers don’t necessarily need to avoid Anderson, but he is the Panther most likely to be a fantasy football bust.
New Orleans Saints
The most obvious fantasy football bust in the NFC South comes from the Saints.
Michael Thomas, Wide Receiver | ADP: 84
A quick note on Michael Thomas’ ADP — it’s constantly in flux as fantasy managers are unsure how to handle his injury. Nevertheless, Thomas finds himself on this list because I really don’t care where he’s going — don’t draft him.
Thomas underwent ankle surgery in June and is set to miss at least the first several weeks of the season. I don’t expect him to be cleared to play until at least Week 7 or 8. At that point, the Saints could be in the midst of a lost season in the post Drew Brees’ era. Things may be much worse with Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill under center. Thomas also seems to have some sort of animosity towards the Saints.
I’m sure we all remember 2019 A.J. Green. He was expected to miss 4-6 weeks due to an ankle injury in July. Instead, he didn’t play a snap all season. That is what I expect from Thomas; he’s not going to play this season. At the end of the day, players are going to get hurt. But you don’t need to walk out of your fantasy draft with players that are already on the sideline.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have a ton of fantasy-relevant players. It seems likely that at least one of them will be a fantasy football bust. Let’s see if we can identify that player.
Mike Evans, Wide Receiver | ADP: 37
Don’t mistake Mike Evans’ presence here as a knock on his talent — I love Evans. My issue is his cost relative to the other players on his team.
Evans is going in the late-third/early-fourth rounds of fantasy drafts. His ADP is about seven spots higher than Chris Godwin’s. The biggest issue I have is that Evans is going about 75 spots ahead of Tom Brady’s BFF, Antonio Brown. That just doesn’t make any sense.
Evans saw a career-low 109 targets in 16 games last season. His 70 receptions are his lowest total since his rookie campaign where he only played 15 games. Yet, Evans caught a career-high 13 touchdowns. Simply put, his touchdown rate is unsustainable.
Evans averaged 15.5 PPR ppg last season. If he only caught 8 touchdowns, which is still a bit high given his total receptions, he would’ve averaged 13.6 ppg. That would’ve put Evans as a mid-WR3. Meanwhile, Brown averaged 14.6 ppg last year. The reality is Evans, Godwin, and Brown are all very similar fantasy assets. The one most likely to bust is the most expensive one, which is Evans.
Jason Katz is a Fantasy Analyst at Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter @jasonkatz13 and find more of his work here.