Every fantasy football season, players who let us down in past years emerge as league-winners. The critical question: Which names are the ones to highlight on your draft prep sheet as training camp rolls closer?
Did you get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure what to do? Make championship-winning decisions with PFN’s FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator!
What Classifies a Player as a Bounce-Back Candidate?
So let’s be clear about something: in order to “bounce back” in fantasy football, you need to check a few boxes.
- Be on the same team you were last season
- Have proven that you are capable of producing
- You are coming off of a season with reasonable health
Yes, like the rest of the world, I think Aaron Rodgers will be better this season than last. But everything around him has changed, and thus, he isn’t bouncing back as much as he is attempting to produce in a new environment. It’s different.
“Bouncing back” to me means you are avenging a down season without the aid of (significant) change. You might have even made our bust list last season. One of the great philosophers of our time, Drake, said it best when it comes to the mindset of these players who I’m buying the dip on: “I had someone tell me I fell off ooh I needed that”
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (QB17, 16.5 PPG)
We may have been a little quick to crown Herbert as the next big thing, but his 2022 season is not symbolic of what you should be expecting this season. Yes, his TD rate fell off a cliff (3.6%, down from 5.4% in his career prior), but what would suggest that it is likely to continue in 2023?
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined to miss 11 games, which is definitely on the high side of expectations, and the team added WR firepower in the form of 6’3” rookie Quentin Johnston. Also factoring into that decline was a weird and unsustainable red zone season. Herbert completed a career-best 58.2% of his red zone passes, but his red zone TD rate was easily the worst of his career (20.4%).
That defies logic. That 20.4% ranked 25th of 33 qualifiers and is downright terrible, but I’d be more intrigued by him ranking third in red zone pass attempts and completions than I would be worried about that rate being sticky.
We also saw the rushing regression monster take a bite out of Herbert’s 2022 value, as he failed to score on any of his 54 carries. Through two seasons, he was scoring once every 14.8 rush attempts. Even if that number proves to be a touch high, 0-for-54 isn’t likely to happen again, giving Herbert another path to bounce back and regain his strong fantasy football ranking.
Deshaun Watson (QB25, 14.3 PPG)
To a certain degree, Watson is the quarterback version of Calvin Ridley. That is, his elite form is far enough removed from our conscience that we are now underrating his potential. Let me reintroduce you to this guy.
From 2018-20, he posted three straight seasons with at least 3,800 passing yards and 400 rushing yards … or, you know, the only QB to have done that at that time (Josh Allen has done it since).
Skeptics will point to his limited success post-suspension last season (58.2% completion rate with seven touchdown passes in six games), but those people are overlooking a learning curve that takes place with a new team and treacherous weather conditions that greatly impacted play calling in a few of those games.
Even if the overall counting numbers weren’t impressive last season, he did have a 12-plus yard rush in each of his final four games and saw five of his final 47 pass attempts result in scores.
The soon-to-be 28-year-old showed some flashes of upside, and Cleveland has a quartet of viable options to help him succeed. A bounce-back season lands him in the second tier of fantasy signal-callers, and that would make him a bargain at his current seventh-to-eighth-round ADP.
Oh, and he faces the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans when plenty of fantasy football leagues are being decided (Weeks 15-16). That doesn’t hurt. Not one bit.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor (RB19, 12.7 PPG)
I can’t believe I have to include Jonathan Taylor on this list, but there have been enough whispers in the community that he needs to be addressed. He’s great. It really is that simple. In an offense that lacked creativity last season, he scored on just 21.4% of his goal-to-go carries, a significant dip from his 34.5% career rate prior.
Taylor shifting closer to his career mean is statistically likely on a spreadsheet, and it’s “football likely” when you consider the offensive options that present themselves with Anthony Richardson now under center.
Let’s talk more about that because discussing Taylor’s talent level just seems silly. Here are a few of the top rushing quarterbacks and their impact on running back efficiency:
- Jalen Hurts: second in QB rush yards per game
- Philadelphia Eagles: seventh in RB yards/carry
- Josh Allen: third in QB rush yards per game
- Buffalo Bills: second in RB yards/carry
- Marcus Mariota: fifth in QB rush yards per game
- Atlanta Falcons: third in RB yards/carry
- Geno Smith: sixth in QB rush yards per game
- Seattle Seahawks: sixth in RB yards/carry
We are all projecting Richardson to be in this range of rusher from the get-go, and it stands to reason that his threatening defenses will open up things for this backfield which will be almost exclusively Taylor. On top of improved rushing numbers, you have the fact that Taylor has seen his routes per game tick up every season of his career (23.3 last season, sixth at the position).
Don’t hold 2022 against him. Don’t drop him down your draft board. Taylor deserves first-round consideration and figures to remind you of that early and often in 2023.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson (WR49, 9.4 PPG)
I dove into the curious case of Diontae Johnson in my Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: 9 WRs/RBs To Target in 2023 piece, and he’s as good a fit for this sort of column as he is for that one.
Failing to score a single time on 147 targets (86 catches) is beyond unlikely or unlucky, it’s just goofy. We’ve never seen a player with a stat line like that, and I’d guess we don’t see it again anytime soon.
What has changed, other than having a weirdo season on his resume? Just 12 months ago, Johnson was a consensus fourth-round pick, consistently being drafted ahead of Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Sheesh.
I’m not arguing that Johnson deserves to be drafted in that tier this summer, but three-plus rounds behind all of them? Through three seasons, Johnson was scoring once every 12.7 catches. If we carry that rate over to his 2022 stat line, we are talking about 6-7 touchdowns and a WR29 finish instead of WR49.
Darius Slayton (WR67, 7.3 PPG)
I’m old enough to remember when Slayton scored eight times in 14 games as a rookie. The following season, he was drafted in nearly 68% of leagues, and we were ready for him to ascend in a big way. It didn’t happen. And it hasn’t happened.
Slayton has just seven touchdown catches over the past three seasons and doesn’t have a 100-yard game since October … of 2020. That’s the bad, and that explains why he is an afterthought in drafts right now. But in an offense devoid of a WR1, he deserves at least some consideration to be on your sleepers list for 2023.
Slayton stands 6’1” and owns a career average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.4 yards, a combination that should have him on your DFS radar in the right matchup. The upside is no secret, and the gradual development of Daniel Jones is why I believe he is worth your while at the end of your draft.
For his career, Danny Dimes has seen his completion percentage on balls thrown more than 10 yards downfield increase each season (55% in 2022, third in the NFL).
That’s a positive development, and this current roster is built for him to continue trending in that direction in terms of stretching the field. Think about it. Saquon Barkley stretches defenses horizontally (both by way of rush and reception), and so does Jones himself. Sterling Shepard figures to be back in the mix to soak up those underneath targets, and the newly acquired Darren Waller is going to handle the middle of the field.
The point here is that defenses are going to be concerned with the line of scrimmage, something that should put Slayton in single coverage situations, and if that’s the case, he’s going to be more than simply worth a roster spot!
Tight End
Kyle Pitts (TE22, 6.9 PPG)
Here we go again. Pitts totaled 1,026 yards as a rookie, but in his sophomore season, he was held to 356 yards in 10 games prior to an MCL injury that prematurely ended his season.
The lack of touchdowns (three in 27 games) has been his undoing from a fantasy standpoint, but it is important to take a step back and look at the entire picture. The tight end position has traditionally been tough in terms of progression, so it’s critical to not let past disappointment completely sour you on Pitts. Through two NFL seasons, here are Pitts’ numbers and some comparable figures:
- Target Rate: 23.5% of routes (George Kittle: 23.4%)
- Yards Per Target: 8.2 yards (T.J. Hockenson: 6.8)
- Catch Count: 96 in 27 games (Mark Andrews: 98 in 31 games)
I think you get the idea. Some of the underlying numbers aren’t as damning as his fantasy results, so yea, I’m going to preach patience for the positional leader in yards per catch during those two seasons. Of course, that’s easier said than done, so what if I told you that I had an ace in my hand? What if I told you I had a unique angle that could help you overlook the past?
Last season, the Falcons had the fourth-highest rush rate of the decade (55.3%) and then proceeded to draft Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick. Can we agree that running the rock is going to continue to be a focal point?
The more run-heavy an offense is, the more likely they are to go play-action when throwing, if for no other reason than they’ve groomed the defense to expect run and react otherwise. Well, for Pitts’ career, his situational half-PPR fantasy points per target are:
- Play-action: 1.59
- Otherwise: 0.97
Hmmm … natural touchdown scoring correction, quarterback development, and a trend like this? If you’re not sold on Pitts as a bounce-back option poised to pay off his sixth-to-seventh-round ADP, there’s not much else I can do.