Fantasy football bold predictions are meant to be aggressive. Every player comes with a range of outcomes, and while most players settle within one standard deviation of expectation, there are plenty that live on the tails.
My job today is to highlight the path for the rare outcomes and convince you on a few that help dictate how you approach your drafts this summer.
Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football 2024
Arizona Cardinals
They are not only a top-10 scoring offense, they clear 26 PPG for just the fifth time this millennium.
This team fell just shy of these marks during Kyler Murray’s big 2020 season due to running out of gas down the stretch (27.9 PPG and 10th in scoring through 15 weeks). Murray had a star WR1 with Round 1 pedigree at his disposal (DeAndre Hopkins) and he now has that in Marvin Harrison Jr.
What has changed is his passer profile. In 2020, Murray was running all over the place and difficult to contain, but a blitz removed the threat of him beating you from the equation — that’s not true anymore.
When Blitzed:
- 2020: 61% complete, 6.7 yards per attempt, 85.7 Passer Rating
- 2021-23: 65.5% complete, 8.1 yards per attempt, 109.2 Passer Rating
Of the top-10 scoring offenses, five of them ranked outside the top 15 in yards per play defense, and that has to be factored into this math. Offensive numbers can be as much a product of necessity as talent.
Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson becomes the third player in NFL history with 2,400 scrimmage yards in a season (Marshall Faulk in 1999 and Chris Johnson in 2009).
Robinson had 11 games last season with 5+ targets, a feat only three other rookie backs have accomplished over the past decade – Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara. Two of those three have a 2,000-yard season to their name, and all three showed signs of growth in Year 2:
- McCaffrey: Yards per carry up 35.1% in Year 2
- Barkley: Rush success and carry count both increased in Year 2
- Kamara: Opportunities per game up 44.9% in Year 2
Given all of the preseason discussion around how the Falcons would like to deploy their RB1 (Robinson on his usage: “having access to do creative things out of the backfield, more so like how they use Christian down there in San Francisco”), it stands to reason that he will be featured in a significant way from the jump.
If the sheer volume of opportunities carries us early, I like our chances. Following the Week 12 bye, the Falcons don’t face a defense that ranked top-12 in EPA last season for the remainder of the regular season.
The expectation is for Atlanta to be playing meaningful games into January, thus keeping them motivated and feeding their most reliable offensive option.
Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers has as many catches this season as he had targets as a rookie (108).
The absence of Mark Andrews at points last season allowed Todd Monken and this Ravens team to learn where Flowers was most comfortable. As a rookie, his average depth of target was 37.1% lower when the All-Pro tight end was off the field, something I suspect we see more of to open this season.
Lamar Jackson averaged a career-best 6.3 yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards last season, and the presence of Derrick Henry figures to only provide larger windows for those quick hitters.
Flowers’ goal-line fumble against Kansas City is what most remember about Baltimore’s final game of last season, but let’s not forget that, on the biggest stage, he earned 23.5% of the targets and accounted for 42.3% of Raven’s receiving yards.
Buffalo Bills
Ray Davis leads this team in rush TDs.
James Cook showed us plenty last season, but the Bills showed us even more when it came to his role.
There were 47 players who finished 2023 with more touches inside the 5-yard line than Cook (a list that includes Andrew Beck and Elijah Mitchell) — damning stats given the potency of this offense.
Of course, the reason this is a bold call is the presence of Josh Allen. He’s undoubtedly the favorite as he comes off of a career 15 scores on the ground.
But hear me out. Six of those touchdowns came in scramble situations — one more than he had in the two seasons combined and the most by a quarterback this millennium.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of town, this offense could embrace a more quick-hitting passing attack, a style of play-calling that would reduce the scramble count.
This article would be titled differently if I thought this was a likely outcome, but this is a win-now team, and Davis has the size to make an impact in close – not to mention that keeping Allen in one piece for the postseason is always going to be a priority.
Carolina Panthers
Diontae Johnson records a career-high in receiving yards (1,162+).
Dave Canales has been creative, and his WR1 has benefited as a result.
In 2022, DK Metcalf notched a career-high in receptions, thanks in large part to a shift in his usage (career low in aDOT). Last season, 30-year-old Mike Evans recorded his most yards per route run rate since 2018 in an offense that had little in the way of expectations.
Inspired by @LizLoza_FF's Diontae Johnson optimism
He's 28 and joining Bryce Young (1.01 in 2022)
Since 2004: 13x has a 27-29 year old WR joined a 1st round pick in the QBs Year 2 … 14.5 PPG (WR18 last season)
Even better? 8 of those 13 WRs exceeded 14.5 PPG pic.twitter.com/rF8mysj7aA
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 8, 2024
Veteran receivers have a way of helping Year 2 QBs, and that is a role Johnson fills in this developing offense, especially if we are to assume that Adam Thielen’s career is on its last legs.
Johnson was pigeonholed as more of a short-yardage option early in his career, but he is coming off of a season in which he showcased versatility by posting a career-high aDOT in addition to running his highest percentage of routes in the slot to date.
Look for the short-yardage role to be profitable (Canales’ QBs completed over 74% of sub-10-air-yard throws in consecutive seasons), with the longer targets to give him the potential to bounce back in a significant way after a disappointing final season in Pittsburgh.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams passes Justin Fields on the Bears all-time touchdown pass list (41+ TD).
This is a fun headline and would be a rookie record by at least 10, but there’s a path given the pedigree and the supporting cast.
Justin Herbert (2020) currently holds the top mark for a first-year QB, and it’s easy to note that his leading receiver could also be Williams’ (Keenan Allen).
Herbert guided 51.6% of his targets to a three-headed core, another trait I expect Williams to match, if not exceed, and Williams has more talent supporting him. Herbert also missed a game that year and had seven contests with one or fewer touchdown passes.
Williams needs to average just under 2.5 TD tosses per game, which is obviously a high expectation. But it is worth noting that the schedule runs out nicely for a historic season like this – 12 games fall into one of these three boxes, all of which project favorably (rankings do not include the Bears, as that is a matchup Williams cannot have):
- Bottom-5 in pressure rate (four matchups)
- Bottom-5 in opponent touchdown pass rate (four)
- Top-10 fantasy QB (four)
Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Gesicki catches more passes this season than the last two combined (62+).
Over the past two seasons, Joe Burrow has completed 517 of his 665 passes thrown less than 10 yards. He’s seen 46.6% of those completions go to Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, or Samaje Perine – all of who have taken their talents elsewhere.
Gesicki has been asked to block on just 28.8% of his career snaps and should have a consistent role in the chain-moving version of this passing game. Rookie receiver Jermaine Burton is an exciting rookie, but I expect his work to come more downfield (20.5 yards per catch at Alabama last season).
Boyd averaged 64 catches per season over his final three with the Bengals. As long as Burrow is healthy, Gesicki’s PPR floor might be one that we as an industry are overlooking.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards from Weeks 11-18 (Week 10 bye).
There’s some minor cheating going on here – I’m picking a volume stat and citing a range in which half the league will have their bye during – but I’m also picking a running back whose career was in jeopardy less than 12 months ago.
During this stretch, the first four games for Cleveland come against a defense that ranked worse than league average in yards per carry surrendered to running backs while the last four come against an elite offense in which the Browns will certainly look to control tempo.
Since entering the league in 2018, Chubb leads all 68 qualified players in yards per carry after contact. The only thing more terrifying than facing a physical runner like this down the stretch is facing a physical runner like this down the stretch when his reps in September-November were managed.
The endzone view of Nick Chubb's TD is 🔥@Browns pic.twitter.com/Id5IzjuCGc
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) January 3, 2021
Chubb’s four best qualified games (14+ carries) during his career in terms of yards per carry after contact have all come in the second half of the season.
Fantasy is a marathon, not a sprint.
Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson finishes the season as fantasy’s top-scoring tight end.
In 13 of 17 games last season, Ferguson either saw an end zone target or cleared 30 routes run. That’s a profile that can do some serious fantasy damage, especially if you’re as unsold as other secondary options in this offense that led the league in scoring and posted the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation.
Brandin Cooks stumbled into eight TD catches in 2023, but a career-low in yards per route has me believing that Father Time is lurking. The Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle tandem will soak up some usage, but likely less than the backfield did in Big D last season, and the battle for WR3 duties is underwhelming (Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks being the primary threats).
An NFC team with an alpha WR1, a pocket-passing QB, and limited secondary options – am I talking about 2023 Detroit or 2024 Dallas?
Sam LaPorta was a league winner for the Lions last season, a title Ferguson could hold when all is said and done this season.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix has the single highest-scoring game by a rookie QB this season.
Since 2011, a rookie quarterback has cleared 30 fantasy points 24 times, with 11 different signal-callers appearing on that list. What interests me about that sample is that the majority saw over two-thirds of their points in their big game(s) come through the air.
Nix is a capable athlete, but in a Sean Payton offense, his arm is likely to be prioritized. I’m not here to sell you on Nix as anything close to roster-worthy in redraft leagues, but he has a backfield that is capable in the horizontal pass game, a pair of big-play young receivers (including one that he just lit up the college ranks with), a stable pro in Courtland Sutton, and a defense that is going to put them in pass-heavy game scripts.
I don’t need to call my exact shot, but if I was going to, the Falcons (fourth-highest opponent aDOT last season) coming to altitude in a four cities in four weeks stretch the week before their late (Week 12) bye makes for an interesting spot.
Yep, I’m starting my Week 11 GPP DFS lineup with a Nix stack – it’s been decided three months ahead of time!
Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs scores more touchdowns than David Montgomery in 2024 … and every other running back in the NFL.
This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of inciting.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000.
Green Bay Packers
The 50-ish pick difference between Josh Jacobs and Jayden Reed will be an obvious mistake by Halloween and swing the fate of those teams coming playoff time.
Matt LaFleur has told anyone who will listen that a committee is the plan when it comes to this backfield. And given that Jacobs has only one efficient season on his NFL leger, are we sure he is the one who gets the plurality of carries in this offense as the season progresses?
Lloyd averaged 8.2 yards per touch last season at USC and was brought in by this win-now franchise for a reason. I think there’s more risk involved in Jacobs’ profile than most are giving credit to, and the inverse, in my eyes, is true for Reed.
The narrative about the Packers is that they have a receiver room full of talent but lack an alpha. That’s just not how I see it.
Reed earned over 25% of the targets six times as a rookie (including the playoffs), and five of them came in Week 12 or later. We always detail how first-year receivers grow with reps — so why are we not extending that development into his second year with a QB who is also trying to hit his stride?
Yes, the talent behind Reed is impressive, but they are far from proven and don’t offer quite the projectable upside, in my opinion.
I don’t yet view Jordan Love as the type of quarterback who will simply take what the defense gives him (ala Patrick Mahomes). If he is going to feature a weapon, I’m more than comfortable betting on Reed.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins makes the receiving core in Houston a Big 1 + 2 as opposed to a Big 3.
Years 4-6 Anquan Boldin: WR4 (17.5 PPG)
Years 4-8 Brandon Marshall: WR4 (17.6 PPG)
Years 4-5 Dez Bryant: WR4 (19 PPG)
Year 4 Michael Thomas: WR1 (23.4 PPG)
Years 4-8 Tyreek Hill: WR1 (20 PPG)Nico Collins enters Year 4 with a QB top-3 on betting boards for yards and TDs … pic.twitter.com/LJvhAMxUFV
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 7, 2024
I don’t think anything we saw last season from Collins was a fluke. We saw the downfield separation fade from Stefon Diggs’ game down the stretch of last season, and while Tank Dell impressed last year, I maintain that his 6-inch height difference from Collins is going to be tough for him to overcome in terms of a high target rate.
We know the quality of targets is there, and as Collins grows with C.J. Stroud, the league is going to have to prove they have a way to stop them. I’m not sure they will in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson produces the first 260-85-2 single-game stat line in NFL history (passing yards – rushing yards – rushing TDs).
Much like Victor Wembanyama in the NBA, we are at risk of Richardson making us rethink how we score our fantasy game. He played the majority of two games last season – he ran 10 times and threw for 200+ yards in both of those contests.
The Colts have enough talent at the receiver position for chunk plays, and Richardson’s raw physical tools can take care of the rest.
I don’t doubt that there will be valleys in his sophomore season, but Richardson’s ceiling performances certainly have the potential to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. gives us a replica of the 2023 Calvin Ridley stat line (76-1,016-8), but with more consistency and far less draft capital spent to acquire it.
Is it possible that Thomas is a late 10th round pick in fantasy drafts because of the talent in this rookie class?
The fact that we view Marvin Harrison Jr. as a generational talent and two others in this class ahead of BTJ creates an inherent bias. We naturally see him as WR4 in this class as opposed to the potential top target-earning receiver in an offense led by a high-pedigree QB.
2017 Matt Ryan: 4,095 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 91.4 Passer Rating
2023 Trevor Lawrence: 4,016 passing yards, 21 passing TDs, 88.5 Passer Rating
As a rookie, Ridley joined Ryan after a so-so season and scored 10 times despite finishing third on that team in targets (shout out to Mohamed Sanu).
Thomas has a similar build and pairs up with a top-three pick at QB who has yet to reach his prime.
This bold take may not be bold enough.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco is a first-round pick in way-too-early drafts for 2025 by the time we get to Thanksgiving.
Steam has come in on Pacheco the closer we have gotten to redraft season, but I’m still not sure it’s enough. This is the most stable offense in the NFL, and he is proving capable of doing it all.
The memes of him running angry are funny – and accurate. His 4.7 yards per carry career average only tells part of the story when it comes to his upside as a runner. Including the postseason, Pacheco owns a 91.5% catch rate.
It’s never fun to take a long-term bet on a running back – but a 25-year-old in the best offense of this generation with a developing skill set is exactly the profile I’d wager on.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jakobi Meyers again returns value, even more so when Aidan O’Connell takes over.
I don’t think Gardner Minshew is a bad player, but I do think this franchise is curious about what they have in their 2023 fourth-round pick, and that should allow those who draft Meyers to profit in a nice way – eventually.
Passes Thrown By O’Connell
- Adams: 19% below fantasy expectations, four touchdowns on 108 targets
- Meyers: 12.2% over fantasy expectations, four touchdowns on 55 targets
Would it not stand to reason that the target rates for a young quarterback shift towards where he found the most consistent success?
I’m not making the case for Meyers over Adams. I’m making the case for Meyers over 10-15 middling receivers that are coming off the board before he does at WR55.
Los Angeles Chargers
The rare single crown: Joshua Palmer leads this team in receiving yards, Ladd McConkey in receptions, and DJ Chark in touchdown catches.
This is just a creative way of saying I’ll fade this group of pass catchers.
Palmer and McConkey both pique my interest as fliers, but I’m not operating with a ton of confidence that a rookie or a sub-1.40 yards per route option burst their way into weekly fantasy conversations in anything but the deepest of leagues.
I don’t really expect Chark to matter, but in a low-volume passing attack, a big-bodied veteran who has scored on 10.8% of his career receptions is noteworthy.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua is slow out of the gate (knee) and can’t get on track enough midseason prior to a brutal end to the year to return anything close to top-15 overall value.
I was lower than the field on Nacua prior to what is being labeled as a “non-threat” knee injury in terms of his Week 1 status. But this is enough of an excuse for me to be out on him after a historic rookie campaign.
- WR56
- WR5
- WR61
- WR54
- WR62
- WR19
- WR36
- WR12
Those are Nacua’s weekly finishes (in chronological order) in weeks in which he failed to score in a game in which Cooper Kupp played.
That may seem like an awfully specific split, but the veteran enters this season healthy, and last season’s red-zone usage was interesting.
Of 55 players that saw 90+ targets last season, Kupp ranked eighth in red-zone target share (ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Nico Collins), while Nacua ranked 32nd (behind Cole Kmet and Romeo Doubs).
With Kupp on the field, Nacua saw a 42.2% increase in percentage of targets that came deep down field.
That puts his week-over-week consistency at risk when you consider that an aging Matthew Stafford has seen his deep passer rating check in 20.2 points lower in his three seasons with the Rams than his final three years with the Lions. And if the scoring opportunities are hit-and-miss, this is a risky profile that is being considered in Round 1.
Miami Dolphins
Regression in the success of the ground game results in Jaylen Waddle rediscovering his chain-moving-type of the role he had his rookie season. He and Tyreek Hill combine for over 200 catches, but the distribution is much closer to 50/50 than it was in 2023.
Did you know that, despite playing two fewer games last season (and seeing 28 fewer targets), Waddle (410) had more receiving yards on passes thrown fewer than 10 yards downfield than Hill (408)?
If we are of the belief that more teams play zone this year to try to take away Hill over the top, Waddle’s catch count could really take off.
Against zone, Waddle saw only 21.3% of his targets come deep downfield (Hill: 38%), putting him in a position to win significantly if we see this Dolphins offense defended like past Chiefs teams, where the opponent’s goal is to encourage death by 1,000 papercuts over the big swing.
Hill will still get his – I just don’t think we are getting the 2.3 catch-per-game separation that we saw in 2023.
Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler is the only Viking that surpasses his statistical projections and he is a common name on fantasy teams that qualify for the postseason.
Five of the past seven instances in which a Round 1 rookie QB took over, his top pass catcher failed to reach five touchdown receptions.
Maybe that is the product of some recent swing-and-misses at the quarterback position, but the fact that we don’t know what J.J. McCarthy is and have rumors around him being unable to separate from Sam Darnold. Now, McCarthy is injured and could miss considerable time.
Jefferson’s talent is enough to elevate above QB limitations. There just isn’t much room for profit, given his ADP (he’d essentially have to be Nico Collins with C.J. Stroud last season). And given the talent at the receiver position, a slight slip in production could result in a season in which he doesn’t rank as a WR1 when all is said and done.
Tying in with my low expectations for this offense as a whole is Aaron Jones’ diminished scoring rates. With his explosive carry rate down in back-to-back-to-back seasons, if the touchdown count isn’t there to buoy his value, the risk of him finishing outside of the top-25 at the position is, in my opinion, greater than him posting a top-15 season – that’s a problem at his RB18 ADP.
Chandler is coming off the board outside the top 150 and ranked seventh among qualifiers (ahead of that Christian McCaffrey guy) last season in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
The upside is capped, but I expect Chandler to have a role that has low-end standalone value on a regular basis with reasonable contingent value behind a 29-year-old starter.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye has a Will Levis-like rookie season – a huge introduction to the NFL before struggling to the finish line and not providing consistent value after lighting up your bench (or the waiver wire) for one game.
Over the past decade, four of the top five rookie QB fantasy performances have featured over 23% of passing fantasy points coming deep downfield and over 32% of total fantasy production coming on the ground.
That’s essentially the Maye profile, and inconsistencies are part of the deal when it comes to a rookie signal-caller, no matter what you think of him long-term.
- Even during a historic first season, C.J. Stroud had a five-week stretch that saw him post these points totals: 13-42-19-15-31
- Move way down the hierarchy of fantasy QBs and we see more of the same. In Daniel Jones’ rookie season, he went 5-10-28-12-30 over a five-week run.
Maye’s physical gifts are interesting, and I don’t doubt that whenever New England rolls him out there for the first time, it’ll be a favorable spot with a locked-in game plan. These high-end talents can succeed in a controlled environment, but after putting play on tape, the sledding gets tough.
You can try to land the plane on the big week in DFS, but other than that, he’s just a dynasty option – I’m not getting sucked in following this projected big singular performance.
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr throws for 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2015 and has more 25-fantasy point games this season than the previous five combined (3+).
I understand the narrative around Carr, but you haven’t been paying enough attention if you think what he brings to the table is a limiting factor.
Over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field:
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
At his disposal are a trio of young, big-play receivers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and AT Perry, and a veteran running back in Alvin Kamara who is still plenty viable as a pass catcher but has shown signs of decline on the ground. Add all that together, and you’ve got yourself an enticing fantasy cocktail.
Carr ended last season with five straight multi-TD pass games — momentum I think he could very well carry over into 2024. His September opponents? The Panthers, Cowboys, Eagles, and Falcons.
New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. provides the best chance for fantasy draft day value of the rookie skill position players on this team — if he’s healthy.
With Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s injury, the Giants may be without a rookie who returns profit on their ADP.
What if Devin Singletary is nothing more than ordinary? He has spent all five of his seasons in offenses with a franchise QB under center (four with Josh Allen and last year with C.J. Stroud) with considerable amounts of upside. It’s safe to say that the Giants do not check those boxes.
Despite the positive surrounding environment, Singletary averaged a career-low 0.19 PPR fantasy points per opportunity (targets + rush attempts), ranking him 31st of 35 qualifiers at the position.
Tracy was in a position to produce above expectations, but those dreams may now be dashed. Maybe Eric Gray steps into a viable role with time, but he’s not someone you need to draft.
As for Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones is entering his sixth NFL season, and just twice has a receiver averaged 9.0 PPR points during his tenure.
Now, I’m willing to admit that Nabers has as much talent as any New York Giants receiver in recent memory. But that 9.0 PPG number is an awfully low bar (Josh Downs was WR51 last season and averaged 9.2 points).
The best WR season that has come under Jones’ was Sterling Shepard in 2020, a season in which he averaged 13.5 PPG, a number that would have been good for WR27 in 2023.
I have Tracy exceeding an ADP that sits outside of the top-50 at the position if he’s healthy, meaning Nabers will have to punch above his weight to keep pace. He’s coming off the board as WR24 – that was Jakobi Meyers and his 13.7 PPR PPG last season.
New York Jets
Mike Williams has more touchdowns than games missed for the first time in three seasons and is considered a legitimate flex option as the fantasy playoffs begin.
In our Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024 piece, I addressed the specifics as to why Williams has a chance to offer value in a similar ilk of 2023 Jakobi Meyers, and at cost, that would be remarkable value.
The size profile obviously inspires hope if this offense is going to be in scoring position as often as we are projecting. We know Rodgers will give his athletes a chance to make plays once they earn his trust.
If this duo can get on the same page, top-30 per game numbers are attainable. For his career, Williams averages 16.8 PPR PPG when seeing more than five targets.
If he can get within three PPG, we are profiting from this investment (ADP: WR54, 12th-round pick).
Philadelphia Eagles
Will Shipley is the Saquon Barkley insurance policy and gives us starting value when thrust into a greater role.
Barkley is phenomenal, and I’ll have my shares (The Perfect Fantasy Football Draft from the 12 Spot), but there is no denying his fragility. He hasn’t played a full season since he was a rookie in 2018, and if his usage is at the level I hope, I don’t think that trend stops.
Shipley is a dual threat who averaged over 5.0 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per catch during his three seasons at Clemson. Kenneth Gainwell remains on this roster, but he’s trusted in his niche role.
After D’Andre Swift took over last season, Gainwell didn’t have a 10-touch game. He’d see his usage increase if Barkley were to miss time, but this team spent a fourth-round pick on Shipley with the hope that he has a higher ceiling.
Shipley’s vision and allusiveness are interesting traits that could play well in this offense, giving them a poor man’s version of what Barkley brings to the table. Shipley taking over the lead role would require less shifting of pieces for the Eagles, something I think they’d try to give a run if pressed into duty.
Shipley is a fine late-round stash. At the very least, earmark him as a player to track as September progresses. He is a good bet to at least have his moment to shine at some point in the middle of the season and help you through a tough spot (injuries, byes, etc.).
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens stumbles out of the gates and never recovers.
I like the talent here — actually, I might love it. But I worry about how this season projects, especially with an expensive ADP (late fifth round — in the Tee Higgins and Tank Dell range) at a deep position.
Three Falcons came over with Arthur Smith (Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, and Cordarrelle Patterson) and is it not at least worth considering that the early season playbook is skewed toward the players the OC trusts?
Natural growing pains could impact the early season, not to mention the lack of a clear picture as to the approach under center. Pickens could round into form in the middle third of the season, but even if that’s the case, he could have some difficult individual matchups in Week 5 against the Cowboys and Week 7 against the Jets.
If you’re the patient type, you’re probably a good fantasy manager. But I’m not sure patience is rewarded in this instance.
From Weeks 11-17, both Cleveland and Baltimore games pop up, a tough Kansas City matchup is there, three games come on short rest, and every game has the potential to be impacted by weather.
That’s not a great run for a team with limited upside. And for leagues that conclude before Week 18, you’re losing out on the favorable home Bengals game.
If Brandon Aiyuk is dealt to this team and Pickens remains, he’ll actually move up my rankings and I’ll post a thread (@KyleSoppePFN) as to the math behind that.
Assuming that doesn’t occur, there’s more risk than reward in Pickens’ profile.
San Francisco 49ers
No receiver drafted in the top 20 at the position hurts fantasy managers the way Deebo Samuel does.
This is operating under the assumption that Aiyuk remains a 49er. If not, we can circle back to Samuel’s adjusted ADP. But all we have right now is a base cost with Aiyuk in town.
Over the past two seasons from Brock Purdy, Aiyuk has earned targets at a near identical rate to Samuel despite an aDOT that is essentially double. For me, that’s illuminating – he’s running the routes that require more things to go right, and yet, Purdy is still looking his way as often as he checks down to the versatile Samuel.
From Purdy
- Aiyuk: 13.3% more fantasy points per target than Samuel
- Aiyuk: 20.7% more yards per route than Samuel
Only four times last season did Samuel catch more than five balls in a game, a usage floor that is worrisome. Naturally, he can make up for it on the ground, but that’s a dangerous way to live, especially in an offense that has a generation running back to feed.
Why would the volatility of rushing numbers stabilize in Samuel’s age-28 season?
In 2021, Samuel averaged 1.43 points per rushing attempt, a rate that sits at 1.14 (down 20.3%) since. Even if you think the annual rushing numbers will be there in the end, the path to getting there can be irritating and cost you a handful of weeks, something I have no interest in at this cost.
Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III posts the best season of his career — by 100+ PPR points.
Let’s call Walker what he is — a home run hitter. He is capable of breaking any game open on a single carry, but he’s just as likely to set your drive back with consecutive stuffed runs. Last season, among 35 running backs that carried the ball 150+ times, Walker ranked 29th in percentage of carries that gained yardage, and 10th in percentage of carries that gained 10+ yards.
Given the positive reviews coming out of Seattle this summer, I’m tempted to think that they toy with the idea of giving Walker the one thing we need: consistent opportunities.
For his career, when Walker has played at least 47% of the offensive snaps, he’s given us 16.2 PPR PPG. That would have ranked as RB8 a season ago and is the type of breakout that I view as possible.
Even if you like the Seahawks’ offense to bounce back, they are going to need to control tempo if they want to compete. It’s possible that the majority of their games this season come against a top-12 offense (two each against the 49ers and Cardinals, in addition to games against the Dolphins, Lions, Falcons, Bills, Jets, Packers, and Bears). Shootouts are not how this team is going to compete.
The splash plays will come, and his near 6.0 yards per target average across his two seasons is another path for him to reach 300 PPR points in 2024.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For just the second time in his career, Mike Evans doesn’t reach 1,100 yards or 10 touchdowns.
How much different is Evans’ situation this season than last?
Sure, he has a year of reps with Baker Mayfield, but he’s a year older, and the orchestrator of what made this offense reasonably potent last year is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers.
Dave Canales sprinkled pixie dust on Geno Smith in 2022 and did the same to Mayfield in 2023. Now, he’s out of town.
Why is Evans’ ADP 53 picks higher than 12 months ago? We, as an industry, probably underestimate his raw talent to some degree, but four-plus rounds?
Mayfield punched above his weight last season (career highs in passing yards and touchdowns), but even in a good season, he was spotty when throwing to the end zone. Mayfield ranked below league average in touchdown rate, passer rating, and completion percentage when inside the 20-yard line – and yet, Evans thrived.
Last 15 Seasons: Most Red Zone PPG, Season 10 Or Later
- 2023 Evans: 5.34 PPG
- 2015 Brandon Marshall: 4.79 PPG
- 2009 Randy Moss: 4.17 PPG
Evans’ rate from last season is 11.5% ahead of the field, and those are the only three to average even 3.5 PPG over that stretch. What Evans accomplished in 2023 would have been amazing if you had him, but I think you’re making a mistake in chasing it in Round 3 this season.
Don’t pay now for a past pure runout.
Tennessee Titans
Will Levis has multiple 30-fantasy point games, something only four QBs (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and C.J. Stroud) accomplished last season.
The Titans made it clear this offseason that they want to see what Levis has to offer – for better or worse. I love it, and I don’t know why more teams don’t do this.
In changing their backfield dynamic to one of versatility and adding a playmaker in Calvin Ridley, the Titans have put Levis in position to produce spike games.
Tennessee was a bottom-three defense in both opponent scoring rate and opponent turnover rate. The offense is going to have to produce for them to be competitive, and a big arm profile is going to stumble into a few upside spots for savvy DFS players.
If you’re looking for insight as to when those games might come, Levis averaged 11.4% more fantasy points per pass when not blitzed last season, the opposite of what the league norm is (league average: +13% when blitzed). His games against bottom-six blitz-rate teams from 2023:
- Week 2 vs. New York Jets
- Week 4 at Miami Dolphins
- Week 6 vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 7 at Buffalo Bills
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson doubles his career touchdown count (12+).
Am I missing something here? In Year 2, Robinson improved across the board. After a disrupted rookie season, his yards per carry increased, his touchdown rate spiked, and his involvement in the passing game flipped from non-existent to a legitimate asset.
He’s on the right side of the age curve. Eight of the top 14 running backs last season were aged 25 or younger — Robinson turned 25 in March — and he checked all of the growth boxes last season. And we are dragging his ADP down into the late eighth round because Austin Ekeler is now in the mix?
Forget the “age curve” when it comes to the former Charger, we saw a cliff last season.
Ekeler, Fantasy Points Compared to Expectation
- 2017-22: 17.7% above
- 2023: 21.1% under
I trust Jayden Daniels to add upside to this offense, but with a build more akin to Lamar Jackson than the pounding goal-line QBs in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, I’m not too worried about his rushing TD count (Allen and Hurts average more rushing TDs per season than Jackson has ever had in a year).
The Commanders had 14 TDs on the ground last season. Robinson had five, and seven are no longer on the team (Chris Rodriguez returns, and he scored twice in 2023).
I think Washington has a bell cow, and in assuming as much, a dozen rushing scores is very much within the range of outcomes for Robinson.