The start of the NFL season is a time for fantasy football managers to be bold about what they believe will happen in the coming months. But it’s not always easy to put together bold predictions, and that’s where this article is here to help.
Pro Football Network’s fantasy analysts gave their top three bold predictions for the 2024 season, which could help you make decisions on draft day.
Derrick Henry Reminds Everyone He’s Not Done Just Yet and Scores 20+ Touchdowns
Derrick Henry is 30 years old, and after playing exclusively for the Tennessee Titans, he’s now on a new team for the first time in his career. Henry is playing alongside one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history, who will inevitably steal some touchdowns. Most notably, Henry has never scored 20 times in a single season in his career.
Sportsbooks have Henry’s rushing total set at 10.5, so he has to seriously outperform expectations to essentially double his projection. How does he get there?
The Baltimore Ravens possess, by far, the best offense Henry has ever been a part of. He operates best in positive game scripts, and Baltimore wants to run the ball near the goal line. Still, they don’t want to overexpose Lamar Jackson to hits.
Henry might just have one more epic season in him, leaving us kneeling before him in January, proclaiming, “All hail his grace, the King.”
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jahmyr Gibbs Scores More Touchdowns Than David Montgomery in 2024 … and Every Other Running Back in the NFL
The Detroit Lions’ backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be Detroit’s top option close to the end zone is nothing short of inciting. And in this era of goal-line vulture quarterbacks, that’s not a concern for the Lions.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rushing touchdowns and 50 receptions since 2000.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Malik Nabers Produces a Top-10 Season
The best way I can describe New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is that he is a WR1 stuck in a WR2 situation due to his level of quarterback play.
From a sheer talent perspective, I believe Nabers could be a top-10 fantasy option at the position from the moment he steps on an NFL football field. Yet, the biggest question mark surrounds the level of play we are going to see from his quarterback, Daniel Jones.
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Nabers’ elite separation skills, dynamic playmaking ability after the catch, route-running nuance, and excellent ball skills make him the betting favorite to be the featured player in this offense.
Understandably, the Giants’ passing offense doesn’t get many people excited. However, I’m projecting Nabers for a monster target share in 2024, which gives him a path to be an instant fantasy impact player — even with the potential efficiency concerns.
If you want to bet on a middle-round player, do it on somebody who has an elite ceiling and could see an elite target share. If Jones can provide even middle-of-the-road QB play, then sky’s the limit for Nabers.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
James Conner Fends Off Trey Benson All Season and Finishes as an RB1
I’m pretty sure James Conner has outperformed his average draft position (ADP) every year of his career. What does this guy have to do to get some respect?
Last season, Conner was written off as injury-prone. He was playing on a bad team that we knew would be without its starting quarterback for at least half of the season.
Although five dismal games were mixed in, Conner finished as an RB1 six times, including each week of the fantasy playoffs.
Yes, the Cardinals drafted Trey Benson in the third round. But let’s not pretend like that’s elite draft capital. Everything we’ve heard from Arizona’s camp suggests Conner will have the same role he had last season.
He may get hurt, see Benson ball out, and watch the Cardinals decide to turn the page and hand the keys to the rookie. But what if Conner stays healthy?
He’ll now have a full season with Kyler Murray. Last season, Conner averaged 18.26 fantasy points per game with Murray against 11.88 without him.
Conner is going as the RB19 in fantasy drafts, but his ceiling outcome is top six. If Murray is as good as I think he will be, Conner just might get there.
– Katz
Zay Flowers Has as Many Catches This Season as Targets as a Rookie (108)
The absence of Mark Andrews at points last season allowed Todd Monken and this Ravens team to learn where Zay Flowers was most comfortable. As a rookie, his average depth of target (aDOT) was 37.1% lower when the All-Pro tight end was off the field — something I suspect we see more of to open this season.
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Jackson averaged a career-best 6.3 yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards last season, and Henry’s presence figures to only provide larger windows for those quick hitters.
Flowers’ goal-line fumble against Kansas City is what most remember about Baltimore’s final game last season. However, let’s not forget that, on the biggest stage, he earned 23.5% of the targets and accounted for 42.3% of the Ravens’ receiving yards.
– Soppe
Jaylen Warren Finishes the Season as a Top-10 Fantasy RB
Considering just how much of a mess the Pittsburgh Steelers offense was in 2023, Jaylen Warren managing to finish as RB22 overall in full-PPR formats on just 210 total touches should be viewed as a very encouraging sign.
Warren’s 5.5 yards per touch blew Najee Harris’ 4.2 mark out of the water by a wide margin as well, making him the most efficient back with the more valuable fantasy role in full-PPR formats. Yet, the receiving production is what fantasy managers are trusting to justify selecting Warren this year.
Warren’s Receiving Production in 2023 (Positional Rank)
- Targets: 74 (tied for fifth)
- Receptions: 61 (fifth)
- Receiving Yards: 370 (13th)
In an offensive scheme that wants to run the ball often behind a potentially improved offensive line and an upgrade at quarterback, it’s entirely plausible Warren will take another big step up the fantasy rankings board.
– Tate
Taysom Hill Finishes the Year as a Top-10 Fantasy TE
Taysom Hill continues to be one of the most fascinating studies in fantasy football over his NFL career. His impact in PPR formats has been somewhat limited because he caught just nine passes last season.
But despite this lack of involvement as a pass catcher, Hill still finished as TE12 (2023) and TE9 (2022) in the last two years in full-PPR formats.
How did this happen?
Well, when you run the ball 81 times, catch 33 passes, and throw the ball 11 times, your path to generating fantasy points is drastically more versatile than any other tight end in the league.
Hill has thrown for a touchdown, run for a touchdown, and caught one in back-to-back years. His versatility is truly like a Swiss Army Knife, but it makes his year-to-year production feel like a mystery.
Oddly enough, Hill actually posted career highs in both receptions (33) and receiving yards (291) last season.
Seeing that the New Orleans Saints didn’t bring in any noteworthy free agents or spend high draft capital at the wide receiver position, it’s certainly within the range of outcomes for Hill to be utilized in this fashion again.
– Tate
Blake Corum Is a Top-5 RB Over the Second Half of the Season
Last year, Kyren Williams came out of nowhere to finish as the overall RB2. He was a true three-down back and was able to turn his massive volume into elite production.
However, Williams is not a special player. He’s good enough to win and is in a great situation with elite opportunity.
But what if instead of Williams in that role, it was Blake Corum?
I think Corum can produce close to the same numbers. All it would take is for Williams to get hurt and miss extended time.
If that happens, Williams may not return to his previous role, and Corum would be off to the races as an elite RB1.
– Katz
Jake Ferguson Finishes the Season as Fantasy’s Top-Scoring Tight End
In 13 of 17 games last season, Jake Ferguson either saw an end-zone target or cleared 30 routes run. That’s a profile that can do some serious fantasy damage, especially if you’re as unsold as other secondary options in a Dallas offense that led the league in scoring and posted the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation.
Brandin Cooks stumbled into eight TD catches in 2023, but a career low in yards per route has me believing that Father Time is lurking. The Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle tandem will soak up some usage, but likely less than the backfield did in Big D last season. Additionally, the battle for WR3 duties is underwhelming (Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks being the primary threats).
An NFC team with an alpha WR1, a pocket-passing QB, and limited secondary options — am I talking about 2023 Detroit or 2024 Dallas?
Sam LaPorta was a league winner for the Lions last season, a title Ferguson could hold when all is said and done this season.
– Soppe