Do you like reading about fantasy football bold predictions? If the answer is yes, you’re in the right place. The intent is to present predictions that aren’t too outlandish and could actually come to fruition based on personnel changes, statistics, and other information. With this in mind, here are 15 bold predictions for the 2021 season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire finishes as the top fantasy running back in 2021
Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 18.2 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets), 85 total yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game while only playing 59% of the offensive snaps last season. CEH also only had 18 opportunities inside the 10-yard line.
Other notable running backs such as Derrick Henry (37), Dalvin Cook (36), Josh Jacobs (36), Alvin Kamara (31), and Jonathan Taylor (26) had many more.
This was not the rookie season fantasy managers expected from Edwards-Helaire as part of the Chiefs’ explosive offense. In 2020, Kansas City ranked first in total yards (415) and sixth in points scored (28.5).
Edwards-Helaire enters the 2021 season with limited competition for touches, a retooled offensive line, and a chance to be used more as a receiver out of the backfield. He has a legitimate chance to finish as the top fantasy running back in 2021.
Antonio Gibson outperforms his ADP and finishes as a top-four fantasy running back
Gibson averaged 0.94 fantasy points per opportunity, led all rookies with 11 rushing touchdowns, and finished fifth in rushing yards with 795. He also averaged 4.7 rushing yards per attempt.
Gibson is expected to be used more as a receiver this season. He accumulated 44 receptions for 834 yards and 10 touchdowns in two seasons at Memphis. In fact, Gibson recorded more receptions than rushing attempts (33) in 19 collegiate games.
Washington’s offensive line could be even better in 2021 now that they’ve adjusted the left side. Furthermore, the team will boast a competent quarterback under center this season due to the arrival of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Gibson is in a position to see a Christian McCaffrey-like opportunity share in Washington this season.
Jamaal Williams finishes the season with more fantasy points than D’Andre Swift
The perception is that Swift will dominate the opportunity share in Detroit this season. He finished 2020 fourth in fantasy points per opportunity (1.11). Yet, Swift only averaged 13.2 opportunities per game.
Williams is no slouch. His addition to Detroit’s backfield lowers Swift’s ceiling. Williams is actually the first player in Packers history to rattle off 450 or more rushing yards and 200 or more receiving yards in each of his first four seasons. Williams finished as an RB3 or better in 69% of his career games in PPR formats, including 11 RB1 finishes. With this in mind, he’ll have a higher opportunity share with the Lions than many realize.
New Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn schemed 26% of passes and 41% of touches to running backs during his four years with the Los Angeles Chargers. Williams is an inexpensive way to get exposure to the Detroit backfield this summer.
J.K. Dobbins underperforms relative to his ADP
Dobbins closed out the season on a positive note. From Weeks 11 to 17, he averaged 13 rushing attempts, 82.5 rushing yards, and 17 PPR fantasy points per game.
The departure of veteran running back Mark Ingram opens the door for Dobbins to see more opportunities this year. The issue for his truthers is that Gus Edwards is still on the roster.
The Ravens and Edwards agreed on a two-year contract extension that keeps him under contract through 2023. He’s only accumulated 23 targets over 43 games, but Edwards has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt in his career. He’ll have a role in the Ravens’ backfield in 2021.
Julio Jones finishes as a WR1 and scores more fantasy points than A.J. Brown
Julio Jones has averaged 9.8 targets, 121 air yards, and 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game in his career. The Titans have 224 vacated targets and 2,143 air yards (indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught) available entering the 2021 season.
Both Jones and A.J. Brown will be provided a similar amount of targets. This dynamic duo will give defensive coordinators headaches all season. Jones is 32 years old and coming off of an injured-riddled campaign. That doesn’t mean he can’t be productive in 2021.
Several notable receivers in NFL history have put together monster fantasy seasons at 31 or older. One that immediately comes to mind is Marvin Harrison. His age-31 season was back in 2003, averaging 8.5 targets, 5.7 receptions, 77 receiving yards, and 18.2 PPR fantasy points per game from 2003 to 2005. He finished as a WR1 in 41% of contests in PPR formats.
The rumors of Jones’ demise are greatly exaggerated. He’s a better ADP value than Brown in drafts right now.
Javonte Williams finishes as an RB1
Javonte Williams finished his final collegiate season at the University of North Carolina with 157 rushing attempts, 1,140 rushing yards, and 19 rushing touchdowns. His rushing yards were the 13th-most in school history, sixth-most in the country, and third-best in the ACC.
Williams joins a Broncos backfield with 127 unaccounted rushing attempts heading into 2021 due to the departure of Phillip Lindsay. The rookie and veteran RB Melvin Gordon have a similar skill set.
Both will see nearly the same workload early in the season. This could change as the year progresses, with Williams being provided more touches due to his effectiveness. Williams is in a great position to outperform his ADP.
Tyler Higbee finishes as the fantasy TE1
The addition of quarterback Matthew Stafford this offseason turns the Rams into one of the NFL’s most interesting offenses. Higbee benefits greatly from this change.
Stafford has averaged 273.4 passing yards and 301.5 passing air yards per game in his career. Tight end Gerald Everett has moved on to the Seahawks, leaving Higbee as the primary option at tight end. Higbee has averaged 10 targets, 8 receptions, 94 receiving yards, and 23.3 PPR fantasy points per game in five games with Everett inactive. He’s an excellent value at his ADP, and although the sample size is small, the statistical results are substantial.
Jerry Jeudy outperforms Courtland Sutton and finishes as a WR1
Sutton broke out in 2019, finishing as a WR2 or better in 44% of his games in PPR formats that season. A torn ACL derailed Sutton’s 2020 season, and now fantasy managers are viewing him as an ideal upside piece at his current ADP.
On the other hand, Jeudy didn’t have the breakout rookie season many had hoped. He was dynamic at the University of Alabama. He accumulated 159 receptions and 2,742 receiving yards in three seasons as a member of the Crimson Tide. Jeudy wasn’t in the best position to succeed in the abomination that was the Broncos’ offense last season.
A high percentage of quarterback Drew Lock’s passes to Jeudy were uncatchable, despite owning the sixth-most receiving air yards (1,522) among wide receivers last season. We project that Jeudy and Sutton will see a similar target share in 2021.
Kenyan Drake finishes as a high-end RB2
There is a good chance that Drake outperforms running back Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. The Raiders signed Drake to a two-year, $11 million contract with every single dollar guaranteed. He’s been productive over the last three seasons, racking up 3,266 yards and 27 touchdowns in 45 games.
Drake is a much better value than Jacobs in fantasy drafts, as he could see around 200 opportunities in 2021. Head coach Jon Gruden has been in Las Vegas since 2018. Over that span, Raiders running backs have averaged 7 targets per game.
Giovani Bernard outscores Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones
The Buccaneers were in the market for a pass-catching running back after not re-signing LeSean McCoy and landed a great one in Bernard. Tampa Bay is unlikely to use Gio Bernard as a three-down back at this stage of his career. However, Bernard could become quarterback Tom Brady’s new version of James White.
Bernard played in 115 games and rushed for 3,697 yards and 22 touchdowns on 921 attempts. He also contributed as a receiver out of the backfield with 342 career receptions. Did you know that this was the most by a running back in Bengals history? Moreover, Bernard’s 2,867 receiving yards were the second-most in franchise history.
White had a ton of success in New England with Brady under center. He amassed 60, 56, 87, and 72 receptions from 2016 through 2019. White finished as an RB2 or better in 51% of his 61 active games over that time frame. As a result, Bernard could be a bigger factor than many anticipate.
Matthew Stafford finishes as the fantasy QB1
Stafford enjoyed some success as the starting quarterback in Detroit. He’s averaged 273.4 passing yards, 301.5 passing air yards, and 20.2 fantasy points per game in his career. Now, Stafford is tethered to the best offense he’s ever been a part of with head coach Sean McVay in the driver’s seat.
This offense has an abundance of weapons at every skill position. McVay finally has a quarterback under center who has the ability to make any throw on the field, excels at throwing the football on play-action passes, and the intellect to recognize defenses on his own. Stafford could have the best season of his career in 2021.
Terry McLaurin finishes as a top-six fantasy wide receiver
McLaurin has finished as a WR2 or better in 45% of his games in PPR formats. He has caught at least 1 pass from seven different players and six different QBs during his first two NFL seasons. McLaurin’s success has been impressive considering the defensive attention he’s garnered and Washington’s lack of weapons.
Now, McLaurin will be catching passes from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This should lead to more accurate targets for the third-year receiver. Washington has also found a legitimate No. 2 receiver in Curtis Samuel to complement McLaurin. As a result, McLaurin possesses a high ceiling for 2021.
James Conner finishes as an RB1
James Conner struggled to replicate his masterful 2018 season when he averaged nearly 22 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as an RB2 or better in 92% of his 13 games that year.
From 2019-2020, however, he’s only played in 23 games. Conner dealt with multiple injuries over that time frame and has averaged a disappointing 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
He now finds himself on a committee in Arizona with Chase Edmonds, but he can be better than many think. For starters, he is tied to the productive Arizona offense that ranked sixth in total yards per game (384.6) last season. The same offense led by Kyler Murray, who finished as the QB3 in fantasy. Additionally, the Cardinals boast a solid offensive line.
Conner will immediately inherit the role Drake held in Arizona. This could be viewed as his floor, while Conner’s ceiling is that of an RB1. He’s such a great value in drafts right now, considering his statistical body of work and receiving ability.
Najee Harris finishes as a top-three fantasy running back
Najee Harris shocked many by returning for his senior season at Alabama. Yet, he improved his draft capital by doing so. Last season, Harris finished with 305 opportunities and 1,889 total yards. He excelled at generating yards after contact and creating missed tackles. Furthermore, the Alabama RB generated 18 rushing attempts of 15 or more yards.
For his career, Harris totaled 3,843 rushing yards (first), 4,624 all-purpose yards (second), and 57 total touchdowns (first), all of which were among the top two in Crimson Tide history.
The Steelers selected Harris in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. He is a plug-and-play three-down back. Many in the fantasy community are concerned about Pittsburgh’s offensive line — they were one of the worst run-blocking units in the league last season.
The Steelers will have four new starters on the offensive line in 2021, a new offensive line coach, as well as a new offensive coordinator. The good news is that Pittsburgh’s offensive line will be younger and healthier entering the 2021 season. Thus, they can improve their run blocking in 2021.
Athletically gifted running backs like Harris can transcend average to poor offensive line play. Moreover, the Steelers’ coaching staff can scheme to cover up offensive line deficiencies. Harris can still prosper and finish as a top fantasy running back.
Ja’Marr Chase finishes as a fantasy WR1
Ja’Marr Chase opted out of last season to concentrate on his professional career. He set SEC records during his 2019 campaign with 84 receptions and 1,780 receiving yards. Chase recorded 24 receptions of 20 or more yards, more than any other player in the nation. He was the most productive receiver on an LSU Tigers team that birthed the most prolific rookie wide receiver season in NFL history in Justin Jefferson.
Chase is now reunited with his college quarterback, Joe Burrow, in Cincinnati. The Bengals will have to score points early and often this season due to the state of their defense. Cincinnati also has two other receiving weapons in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. This will force defenses not to focus all of their attention on Chase.
The former LSU star is in a position to see 130+ targets as a rookie with the Bengals. The rapport he’s already developed with Burrow shouldn’t be understated. It’s in the realm of possibility that Chase gets off to a faster start than Jefferson did last season.
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