Winning your fantasy football league is hard. It just is. No matter who’re you playing with or how much research you do, a bounce here and an injury there can make your dynastic squad of destiny a dumpster fire of doom in short order.
That’s part of the game and, to be honest, part of why we love it. Anything can happen. That said, uncovering talented players that, for one reason or another, aren’t being drafted at a slot that reflects their true potential can put you in a position to raise the trophy when all is said and done.
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Fantasy Football League-Winners 2023
The odds are good that there will be a late-round pick that gives you nice bang for your buck, but did you start him for those spike weeks? Maybe, maybe not.
A “league-winner” for me is a player whose upside you acknowledged early on, got him into your lineup weekly, and watched the points pile up. These four players are positioned to produce above expectations and guide you to glory.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
We always talk about tiering your ranks and the importance of doing so as you try to navigate a draft. The case of Trevor Lawrence is a tier break by the fantasy community that I disagree with, but that makes him the easiest player this side of Jakobi Meyers for me to land in every draft. In most drafts …
Tier 1 QB (late Round 2)
Tier 2 QB (late Round 3)
Tier 3 QB (mid-late Round 4)
Tier 3.5 QB (Round 5-6 turn)
- Trevor Lawrence
You won’t get an argument from me at the top of the board, but after that, I don’t think things are nearly as clear as the industry does. I have Lamar Jackson as my preseason MVP pick, so you’re not going to catch me talking him down, but he’s coming off of an injury and in a new offensive system. There is some risk involved with Jackson, and that’s coming from a big-time supporter of him.
Burrow missed much of August with a minor calf injury, offers less rushing upside, and has a proven RB that is capable of running between the tackles.
Herbert has a new offensive coordinator that we think will be a boon to his value, but the aggressive stylings of Kellen Moore can lead to some peaks and valleys.
MORE: Fantasy Football Regression Quarterback Candidates
Fields is a unique athlete with added pass-catcher help, but his style does put him at risk. Plus, we really don’t have much proof of concept when it comes to him as a consistent thrower.
All of those guys are great, but Lawrence could top them all. Last season, he threw 18 fewer passes than he did as a rookie, and yet, finished with 28 more completions and more than doubled his touchdown total!
In his first season post-Urban Meyer, Lawrence had at least 25 rushing yards or a hat trick of passing scores in the majority of his games. We talk about the Year 2 bump, but if we wipe the Meyer disaster from the equation, could Lawrence not be set to make a leap this year?
Now let’s get funky. If you look at average weather patterns, then you could have a fantasy trophy come New Year’s. From Weeks 10-17, when fantasy dreams come true, the average projected temperature for Jaguar games is 60 degrees! Could Lawrence be a Tier 1 guy when it matters most?
Weeks 10-17, average expected temperature:
- Jalen Hurts: 47 degrees
- Josh Allen: 42 degrees
- Patrick Mahomes: 37 degrees
I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’. At his cost, Lawrence could be the most valuable commodity on the board this draft season.
NEW PODCAST!@KyleSoppePFN and I sat down this morning to recap Week 2 of the NFL preseason! Additionally, we talk through several players that we believe have LEAGUE-WINNING upside in 2023!
Listen to it here!⤵️⤵️https://t.co/NDLZEPlilL
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) August 21, 2023
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
The price on Tony Pollard has been on the rise, but I still think he’s a rock-solid pick at cost. That stands to only improve if the Josh Jacobs saga is truly done and/or if Jonathan Taylor gets moved to a contender.
The Cowboys are without the uber-aggressive Kellen Moore this season, and that might make this offense as a whole less explosive. However, I believe it could help Pollard’s stock. Last season, Pollard racked up 75 of his 51 career air yards.
Yes, I said 75 of 51. As in — 147%.
Dallas was experimenting with using Pollard as a legitimate route runner. Skill development is the type of thing that can result in a spike season, something that I believe is well within the range of outcomes here.
Last season, Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard combined for 56 catches. That’s the exact number I have as a mean projection for TP this season. On top of his proven efficiency on the ground, we could be looking at a truly special season that you can get in the second round.
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
In nearly every one of these write-ups, Kellen Moore’s name pops up. As he did with Dallas last season, Moore is going to push the ball downfield. This time around, though, he has a more capable arm to challenge defenses.
I believe Justin Herbert is capable of far more than his bottom 10-percentile aDOT last season suggests. And if Moore explores that potential, Mike Williams is the no-brainer beneficiary.
I don’t think I have to sell you on Williams’ potential. He had a 25+ yard catch in the final four games of the fantasy season last year, a year in which the Chargers refused to stretch the field. The key to unlocking a special season is a reliable weekly floor, and we might just get that in 2023.
This summer, Keenan Allen was waxing poetic about how he’s being moved all over the formation in practice. Gold. I don’t mind it for Allen, but the greater impact figures to be on Williams. The vertical routes are going to be there by way of Moore’s aggression and Williams’ athletic profile. But if he can assume more of the big slot role, this could be fun.
I’m looking for a career high in catches this season from the 28-year-old, which could easily result in double-digit scores. Williams is being drafted as a high-end WR3 in most spots right now, but I see high-end WR2 in the cards … and don’t rule out a low-end WR1 finish.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m in on the Steelers. I very much believe that Diontae Johnson is also a good pick at cost, but his upside isn’t that of his sophomore teammate.
Last season, Johnson’s aDOT jumped by over 20%, and it was a disaster. It was like ordering steak from a gas station. Why do it? Well, Pittsburgh did. I guess maybe you have to try it before you dismiss it. (Spoiler alert: I have no interest in trying steak from a gas station.)
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I’m grasping for straws, but the moral of the story is that I don’t think Pittsburgh goes back to what failed in 2022. George Pickens was the far superior threat down the field (four more catches and 244 more yards than Johnson on balls thrown 10+ yards despite eight fewer targets), and that’s his path to success in 2023.
While Pittsburgh failed last season, I think they were directionally right. They wanted to encourage aggression from their developing quarterback. That aggression was just misguided.
With a full season of NFL reps under his belt and an understanding of his teammates’ strengths and weaknesses, Kenny Pickett (12th in aDOT during the second half of last season) to Pickens could be a connection we see plenty of this season.
The aforementioned Mike Williams averaged 15.4 yards per catch with 10 scores and a strong finish to the fantasy season in his second season. Do I think Pickens can do that in an offense that I’m buying stock in? I sure do, and that would make him a steal in the seventh round!