The mechanics behind building a showdown lineup is very different from anything you do in your season-long league. Heck, it’s vastly different from the process you go through for the Sunday Main Slate.
I’ve got a strong take on the first game of Week 7 between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. Follow me through the process of turning that opinion into DFS picks layered with researched upside.
Week 7 Thursday Night DFS Showdown Picks
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
- CPT: Bo Nix ($14,100)
- FLEX: Spencer Rattler ($9,200)
- FLEX: Alvin Kamara ($11,800)
- FLEX: Devaughn Vele ($4,400)
- FLEX: Saints D/ST ($5,200)
- FLEX: Blake Grupe ($5,000)
Yes, you’re going to have to be comfortable being uncomfortable for the game tonight.
Bo Nix and Devaughn Vele
I expect Alvin Kamara to be the captain for most, and in an ugly game like this, I get it. Put all of your eggs in the seemingly one stable basket that presents itself and try to pick the right lottery tickets beneath him.
I look at it a little differently. Last week, we had the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, a game that had half a dozen reasonable ways to differentiate yourself from the field, but this game lacks such options. Heck, I’m not sure this game has enough pieces that project for significant playing time to fill out a lineup, which means we are going to see several similar builds.
Let’s get down to basics. The quarterback position is, by in large, the highest scoring in our game, so the idea that I can get suppressed ownership by putting one in my Captain spot is appealing.
Nix isn’t going to win Rookie of the Year or anything like that, but can we agree that the man has a fantasy-viable skill set?
- 6.2 rush attempts per game
- 10+ yard run in five of six
- 33 pass attempts per game
That’s not to say Nix is perfect, but in a single-game slate, the ceiling case is easy to make. His growth hasn’t been as pronounced as that of Caleb Williams, but there are some breadcrumbs being laid.
Bo Nix went on a real adventure on this one. He slips out of a Bud Dupree DDT attempt, escapes another pressure, runs away from two defenders, and taunts 0 for not being able to catch him while down by 20 points pic.twitter.com/RrDvRw2SPz
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 14, 2024
Over the past two weeks, Nix’s completion percentage on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield is up to 47.4% from 26.7% through the first four weeks, and his yards per attempt when blitzed is up 24.7%.
Where are Nix’s targets going to go? Courtland Sutton is a logical option, but he’s turned 47 targets into just 277 yards this season and is priced above that because his name is one we know.
Devaughn Vele is less of a known quantity (6’5” seventh-round pick out of Utah), but he was on the field for 64.2% of Denver’s offensive snaps last week and was in the slot for 79.4% of his routes. All offseason, we spend time preaching the value of a “big slot role,” and now we are being handed it (at a low cost) in a great spot.
This season, eight receivers have hit double-digit PPR points against the Saints, and seven of them spent over 39% of the time in the slot. I’m not overloading on this passing game, but a note like that gives me a nice little stack and saves me enough money to get Kamara exposure, albeit in a limited capacity by not putting him as my captain.
Spencer Rattler and Alvin Kamara
With Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for tonight, in addition to Derek Carr remaining on the shelf, New Orleans’ offense is limping into this contest. I can’t imagine I need to lay out the hard sell job on Kamara, but if you need a push in that direction, it’s worth noting that Denver leads the league in blitz rate, and he’s been targeted on 38.5% of his routes against the blitz this season.
I find it unlikely that Kamara breaks the slate, but the production floor is more than enough to get him into lineups; we just need to avoid a multi-score game. Rattler requires a little more convincing, but from a lineup construction point where I don’t want to be overweight in either offense, the ability to get both quarterbacks and the single-star player on this slate in a lineup is rare.
Rattler ran for 27 yards last week and 16 scores during his collegiate career. Nix is the more athletic of the two signal-callers, but there is some mobility in Rattler’s profile. If he punches in a score instead of Kamara, we’re in good shape.
New Orleans’ offense projects as ultra-conservative (47.5% of Rattler’s passes traveled no more than five yards downfield last week), something that could give their QB a reasonable passing floor, even if the upside isn’t off the charts.
Saints D/ST and Blake Grupe
This is where our lineup is different. Part of the Nix theory is more aggression on his end than Rattler, and while that carries per-pass upside, it also puts him in harm’s way more often.
A mind-numbing play or two from Nix won’t sink his value for the day, but it does give us a favorable story for this outcome. What if the Saints bring the heat with consistency? They are a low blitz team for the season but did rank fifth in Week 1 in blitz rate in their only game against a vulnerable quarterback. If so, that opens the door to both the good and bad of Nix.
One big mistake provides value to the Saints’ D/ST and puts the ball back in his hands in chase mode. Nix isn’t going to be a popular captain, and a lineup with the opposing defense is going to be less common. But does it really take much squinting to make it work?
Blake Grupe rounds out my lineup, mainly because I’m more comfortable in him being utilized from distance, a valuable trait in a game where moving the ball projects as an uphill battle.
For Grupe’s career, 23.4% of his field-goal attempts have come from 50+, a rate that far outpaces that of his opposing number (Wil Lutz with the Broncos: 14.6%).
The Saints have been far more willing to settle for three points on their home turf (eight of Grupe’s 10 attempts have come at the Superdome), and I’d rather side with his seemingly viable floor than throw a dart on an additional pass catcher for either one of these low-octane offenses.