The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons each have talented groups of skill-position players on offense, which makes narrowing down our DFS “Thursday Night Football” picks a bit more challenging this week.
For tonight’s showdown, we use a variety of advanced insights to make our top DFS picks.
Can you trust Bijan Robinson after Tyler Allgeier had more carries last week? Will the Buccaneers’ passing offense have another monster week? Let’s dive right into it.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Top TNF DFS Picks on DraftKings
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($13,200) — Captain
The Buccaneers’ pass defense hasn’t really been tested in the last two weeks.
Last week, Tampa Bay faced an Eagles offense missing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. In the previous week, the Bucs went against a Bo Nix-led passing attack.
The last time they went up against a competent passing offense was in Detroit in Week 2. In that contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 receptions for 119 yards on 18 targets.
Tampa Bay’s secondary has taken a hit with Antoine Winfield Jr.’s injury, their best defensive back. Winfield has been out since suffering a foot injury in the Buccaneers’ season opener, and he has yet to practice this week.
The beneficiary here should be the Falcons’ No. 1 wide receiver, Drake London.
Although London hasn’t had any huge performances yet this season, he has recorded six receptions in three consecutive games. His production should only increase, too, as Kirk Cousins continues to get more comfortable in his return from a torn Achilles.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($10,000)
In this matchup against the Falcons, I trust Chris Godwin more than Mike Evans.
So far this season, the Falcons have allowed both the second-fewest air yards per target and second-fewest explosive plays. To limit explosive plays, the Falcons are more exploitable in the short-to-intermediate passing game, which favors Godwin significantly more than Evans.
Evans will also draw the matchup of A.J. Terrell Jr. on the outside, while Godwin will continue to play the majority of his snaps in the slot.
Considering the Buccaneers are second in pass rate over expectation and are short road underdogs tonight, I’m expecting a very pass-heavy attack in this matchup and for Godwin to be the biggest beneficiary.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($9,800)
After being a limited practice participant to start the week with a hamstring injury, Bijan Robinson has been taken off the practice report and is ready to go tonight.
Robinson is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season after putting up just 11.4 PPR points and having nearly equal touches to Tyler Allgeier.
While Allgeier has been the more efficient runner so far this season, Robinson offers significantly greater upside in the passing game.
For the season, Robinson has been far more utilized as a pass catcher, having run four times as many routes as Allgeier. As a result, Robinson has five times as many receptions.
Tonight, Robinson should continue to make an impact in the passing game, as the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($8,600)
While Baker Mayfield offers both a higher floor and ceiling in tonight’s game from a fantasy standpoint, I prefer the $1,000 savings with Kirk Cousins which gives me more flexibility in building out the rest of the lineup.
As stated earlier, the Buccaneers have had a soft schedule of opposing offenses the past couple of weeks, making it difficult to get a strong read on their pass defense.
Cousins has been a bit underwhelming to start this season, but unlike the Eagles last week, he’ll have his full set of weapons playing against this Buccaneers defense.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,400)
Through the first three weeks of the season, Bucky Irving was averaging 18.33 snaps per game. Last week against the Eagles, Irving played in 30 offensive snaps. The reason for the uptick in playing time is that he has been far more efficient than Rachaad White.
- Yards per carry: Irving 5.8, White 2.8
- Average yards before contact: Irving 1.83, White 0.10
- Averaged yards after contact: Irving 3.97, White 2.71
- Explosive-rush percentage (12+ yards): Irving 11.4%, White 7.3%
- Success rate: Irving 45.7%, White 26.8%
Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards from Scrimmage per Touch
[@FantasyPtsData]– Ken Walker is the most efficient/explosive RB in the league by a good margin right now
– Bucky Irving, J.K. Dobbins, Chase Brown have all earned more playing time
– Noticeable gap with Breece/Braelon pic.twitter.com/ygOXbLMkqJ
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 1, 2024
Irving not only saw a big increase in playing time, but his usage in the red zone went up as well.
Rachaad White had played 100% of Tampa Bay's red zone snap through three weeks.
In Week 4, rookie Bucky Irving handled all five of Tampa's red zone rush attempts. https://t.co/kfuS0xnnuP
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 29, 2024
It seems like it is only a matter of when, not if, Irving takes over as the lead back in Tampa Bay.
Sterling Shepard, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1,600)
While the Buccaneers will have their two top wide receivers, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have both been ruled out with injuries.
Tampa Bay’s injuries at wide receiver gives former Giants WR Sterling Shepard a big opportunity on Thursday night.
Shepard’s three catches for 51 yards for the season all came last week against the Eagles. Before last week, he had played in just four snaps in three weeks. But in an offense that plays in 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, this is a really easy call at an extremely cheap price.