This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets features some star power on offense but not much depth beyond Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Rhamondre Stevenson at the skill positions.
Considering the lack of options, we’ll have to get creative in making our DFS picks this week.
Let’s break down our top choices for DraftKings showdown contests and how we will use various advanced statistics and insights to maximize our chances of having a profitable evening.
Patriots vs. Jets Top TNF DFS Picks on DraftKings
The most optimal way to make DFS lineup picks for showdowns is to build them around potential game scripts. By doing so, you improve the chances of your picks being correlated, which increases both the floor and upside of your lineup.
Going into tonight’s game, the Jets are six-point favorites, and the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair with a total of 38.5. For this matchup, we’re going to make our DFS picks around the implied game script, meaning we’ll have to pick our spots to be contrarian in order to increase our chances of a lucrative payday in very popular contests.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets ($17,700) – Captain
This is a very obvious pick, especially in a matchup in which the Jets are heavy home favorites.
Breece Hall went into the season with very high expectations, especially from a fantasy football standpoint. While Hall has been underwhelming as a runner so far, he has delivered plenty of value for fantasy managers in the passing game.
Through two weeks, Hall is tied with De’Von Achane for the most targets (14) among running backs, has the second-most receptions (12), and has run the 11th-most routes (fifth-highest percentage of routes run on the team’s dropbacks as well).
As a result, Hall has produced the fifth-most fantasy points per game in PPR formats among all running backs, and that comes despite his pedestrian rushing statistics of 30 carries for 116 yards.
There should be positive regression coming for Hall in the running game, and considering his elite usage (for a running back) as a receiver, there is a lot of untapped upside here, which makes him the most logical captain choice.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots ($11,400)
At first glance, this may appear to contradict our strategy in making DFS picks around a negative game script for the Patriots, but Rhamondre Stevenson’s role in New England’s offense is too big to ignore.
So far this season, the Patriots have had the eighth-lowest passing rate above expected, and Stevenson trails only Josh Jacobs and Jordan Mason in rushing attempts. This means we should expect them to establish the run early, and not abandon the running game if they fall behind quickly.
Even with the addition of RB Antonio Gibson, a former wide receiver in college with proven pass-catching ability, Stevenson has been focal point in the Patriots’ aerial attack as well. After two games, Stevenson is second on the Patriots in targets and third in routes.
Stevenson also has a favorable matchup against a Jets team that has struggled against the run so far, ranking just 23rd in rushing defense EPA.
Look for Stevenson to be involved throughout the game, regardless of the score.
Allen Lazard, WR, New York Jets ($5,800)
We can’t afford to squeeze Garrett Wilson in this lineup, so instead, we’ll go with Rodgers’ second-most targeted wide receiver.
It appears that Rodgers and Allen Lazard have the same chemistry they did in their five seasons together in Green Bay. Through two games, Lazard hasn’t been far behind Wilson in the pecking order either:
- Snaps: Wilson 101, Lazard 95
- Routes: Wilson 64, Lazard 56
- Targets: Wilson 17, Lazard 13
Obviously, Wilson is the far superior player, but there hasn’t been a massive gap in their usage so far.
Per Next Gen Stats: Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez aligned across from DK Metcalf on 36 of 44 routes (82%). Metcalf was targeted 7 times against Gonzalez, resulting in 3 catches for 24 yds. DK caught all 7 of his targets against other defenders for 105 yards and a TD.
Will be…
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) September 18, 2024
In this matchup as well, I’m expecting Wilson to be shadowed by Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez for most of the game. Last week, Gonzalez was very effective in shutting down DK Metcalf.
With Lazard, we get a savings of $4,200 compared to Wilson for the rest of our picks while getting close to equal usage.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots ($7,800)
Hunter Henry had a huge game last week, catching eight of his 12 targets for 109 yards against the Seattle Seahawks.
While we shouldn’t be expecting Henry to duplicate last week’s stat line, at the very least, he should remain a focal point of the Patriots’ passing offense.
It’s widely known that the Patriots have perhaps the worst wide receiver core in the NFL, and through two weeks, nearly one-third of the team’s targets have gone Henry’s way.
Henry should be a very popular pick this week, so if you want to be contrarian, it wouldn’t be the worst decision to fade him. The risk, however, is that Henry is heavily targeted once again, and the salary you used elsewhere doesn’t return enough value to make up the difference.
Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots ($4,200)
Demario Douglas is coming off a game in which he didn’t receive a single target, yet he is still second on the team in routes run, trailing only Henry.
At 5’8″ and 192 pounds, Douglas is very small for a receiver and is primarily used in the quick game. Since the beginning of last season, Douglas’ 7.9 aDOT ranks 78th out of 85 wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
DraftKings scoring, however, is PPR, which means Douglas’ low aDOT doesn’t work against him. With this pick, we’re going to continue banking on a negative game script for the Patriots and Brissett getting Douglas more involved.
Considering his “goose egg” performance last week as well, I’m expecting Douglas not to be a very popular pick, meaning there is a lot upside if he delivers a strong performance at his price.
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets ($2,800)
Similar to Douglas, Tyler Conklin has a very low aDOT of just 3.0 yards on average, yet despite playing over 91% of the snaps so far, the Jets’ tight end has just four targets in two games.
Considering his very low price, it wouldn’t require much of a performance for Conklin to bring a strong return on investment here.
Conklin is essentially a matter of circumstance with how we decided to build out this lineup, but considering his heavy snap count, there is a more than decent chance he starts to see an uptick in targets.
