The AFC Championship Game will see the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs do battle in M&T Bank Stadium. With two of the best quarterbacks in the game on the field, this has the potential to be a matchup for the ages. The big question for many, though, is where we can find DFS value in this potentially high-powered matchup.
With the help of projections from the PFN NFL DFS Optimizer, let’s take a look at our top NFL DFS picks for the Chiefs vs. Ravens showdown slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Who Are the Top NFL DFS Picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens?
Lamar Jackson, QB | DK $12,600, FD $17,000
Of the two QBs in this game, Lamar Jackson has the higher ceiling based on what we have seen this season. He has topped 30 fantasy points in five of his 17 games this season and has gone under 15 fantasy points on six occasions.
Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback in NFL history to have three 100+ yard rushing games in the playoffs 🏆#RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/GQns7szl7t
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 21, 2024
In contrast, Mahomes has topped 30 points just once in 18 games and been under 15 points on five occasions. Mahomes has a marginally safer floor, but Jackson’s ceiling is significantly higher. The difference in price between the two QBs is not insignificant, but the higher ceiling makes me prefer playing up for Jackson.
The hard bit to swallow with Jackson will be to make him the Captain on DraftKings at the inflated price. On FanDuel, he is a slam dunk to be your “MVP” at $17,000, but going up to $18,900 on DK is a big cost to carry within a $50,000 price cap.
It is worth seeing how you could make Jackson your Captain on DraftKings, but you may have to sacrifice in the other spots with just over $30,000 to spend on five players.
Isiah Pacheco, RB | DK $9,400, FD $14,000
The injury situation with Isiah Pacheco makes him a tough call this week. He is listed as questionable, and I fully expect him to give it a go if he can. On DraftKings, the price makes sense, given the volume expectation that we would normally have of him. However, on FanDuel, that price is simply too high when, for $1,000 more, you can have Mahomes.
Pacheco has touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and has been utilized heavily by the Chiefs. He has 16 touches against the Buffalo Bills and over 25 against the Miami Dolphins. If he is active, the RB figures to be a big part of this offense, even if he is playing through an injury.
Justice Hill, RB | DK $4,600, FD $9,000
The difference in the two prices on DraftKings and FanDuel is pretty wild here. While the FanDuel prices tend to be more inflated, seeing a player at double the value is surprising. It is hard to imagine Hill returning much value on that FanDuel salary, but there is nice potential here at DraftKings.
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Justice Hill had 15 touches last week, averaging over five yards per touch. It only translated to 9.7 fantasy points on DraftKings, but if he returns you that on his current salary, it is hard to argue. He is not in any Captain/MVP discussion, but as a Flex option, he makes a lot of sense on the DraftKings platform.
Rashee Rice, WR | DK $8,600, FD $12,600
It was a tough outing for Rashee Rice last week, with just 8.7 fantasy points on DraftKings. He finished with four receptions and 47 receiving yards on four targets, his lowest combined numbers since Week 11.
Since that Week 11 game, Rice has scored over 10 points in every game on DraftKings and has gone over 20 points on four occasions. The Chiefs only ran 47 offensive snaps last week, and Rice also played second fiddle to Kelce in terms of finding the end zone.
There is no reason to think he cannot have a bounce-back effort against Baltimore, especially if the Ravens focus attention on Kelce. The price here is nice in terms of ROI on DraftKings especially, but there is plenty of scope for value in that FanDuel price as well. On DraftKings, there is enough potential to where his 20-point ceiling makes him an intriguing captain option this week.
Zay Flowers, WR | DK $8,400, FD $11,500
Zay Flowers’ 8.1 fantasy points on DraftKings and 6.1 on FanDuel in the Divisional Round win over Houston was somewhat disappointing for a player coming off two massive weeks for DFS purposes. However, the game script played a big part, with the Ravens running the ball 42 times against the Texans in what turned out to be a blowout win.
Things should be a little more open this week, and we could see Flowers getting back into the 6-10 target range that we have seen at times this year. In his final five games of the season, Flowers finished with four 20+ point performances, which offers tremendous upside at his current price.
Flowers could be an intriguing option on both sites and as a pivot Captain option on DraftKings.
Isaiah Likely, TE | DK $6,400, FD $10,000
Mark Andrews is coming back for the Baltimore Ravens this week, which clouds the picture a little for Isaiah Likely. That makes the $10,000 price on FanDuel feel a little rich. Likely is a touchdown-dependent option in terms of hitting double-digit fantasy points, so there is a risk he does not even match the value you pay out for him on that front.
At $6,400 on DraftKings, he makes a lot more sense as a low-end lineup balancing option. If I were picking between Likely or Hill, I would lean toward Hill, but as a pure touchdown-or-bust play, Likely offers intriguing value on DraftKings.
Justin Tucker, K | DK $5,200 FD $9,500
You could easily go with either Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker here, based on personal preference. Of the two teams and coaches, I believe the Ravens will be more inclined to take the points when in field-goal range, so I looked to Tucker myself.
On FanDuel, they are the same price, so that is an easy decision for me. However, if you cannot pay all the way up to $5,200 for Tucker, Butker at $4,800 on DraftKings also makes sense as a lower-priced option in your lineup.