The final game of the Divisional Round is an exciting battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. In what could be a cold and windy evening in Buffalo, is there much DFS value to be found in this game?
With the assistance of projections from the free PFN NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer, let’s examine the top NFL DFS picks for the weekend’s final game.
Who Are the Top NFL DFS Picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills?
Josh Allen, QB
The prices on these two QBs with the matchups make it possible for fantasy managers to avoid Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes altogether. Allen’s willingness to use his legs gives him that elevated ceiling. Last week, he scored 13.4 fantasy points just with his rushing ability. However, youwillo have to pay a premium for that upside.
It is tough to see how either Allen or Mahomes end up in your captain spot, whichwillo make this showdown slate one where you have to get a little more creative. Allen did manage a 20-point performance against the Chiefs in Week 14, but that also required a rushing touchdown. Take that away, and it would have been a very disappointing return.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Of the skill-position options in this game, RB Isiah Pacheco is the “volume play.” He carried the ball 24 times last week and saw a target on top of that. In games where he was active, Pacheco has seen at least 10 carries in all but two games this season. In seven of his last 11 games, he has seen 20+ total opportunities.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
Pacheco is clearly the top fantasy option at the RB position in this game. The matchup is not great, but I would rather try and pay up for Pacheco than try to save by dropping down to James Cook, who ismucht more volatile.
I can make the case that Pacheco could be the captain selection in this showdown just because he could touch the ball 20+ times. That is more usage than we can predict for anyone else among the RBs, WRS, and TEs, and it is something we have seen a lot with Pacheco.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rashee Rice has cemented himself as the top option among the Chiefs’ wide receivers and arguably is the top option in their entire passing game right now. You have to go all the way back to Week 11 to find the last time that Rice did not score double-digit fantasy points in DraftKings.
Andy Reid still has some tricks in the bag 😮💨
Jerick McKinnon gets credited for this TD pass to Rashee Rice.#ChiefsKingdom | #NFL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 17, 2023
In that period, he has averaged 9.13 targets per game as the leading pass catcher for the Chiefs. With teams seemingly desperate not to let Travis Kelce beat them, Rice has been feasting on opposing defensive backs in 1-on-1 situations. He has become a dynamic playmaker, and Mahomes clearly trusts him.
In many of my lineups this week, I will be weighing Pacheco vs. Rice for my captain spot, and then I will figure the rest out later. Both have ROI similar to Mahomes and Allen at a cheaper price to lock them in.
Khalil Shakir, WR
We have seen the emergence of Khalil Shakir in recent weeks as the Buffalo passing game has had to adapt. With WR Stefon Diggs seemingly struggling to make an impact deep, the explosive plays in the passing game are coming from Shakir. His touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers was a true jaw-dropping moment that demonstrated his playmaking potential.
The last four weeks have seen him average four targets per contest and return an average of 12 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. With the majority of attention likely still to be focused on Diggs, Shakir should see some nice matchups he could exploit this week.
Travis Kelce, TE
Seeing Chiefs TE Kelce this low down the salary list for a DFS contest just makes my head spin. Last week was his first double-digit game since Week 14 when he had 83 yards on six receptions against the … Bills.
MORE: NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Picks
The end of the season was a real struggle for the veteran TE, but he should be able to return a double-digit performance in both half-PPR and PPR scoring this week. It is hard to pass up a player of Kelce’s quality at this price.Aa part of mealsot wants to go big and make him a captain in a lineup or two this weekend.
Dawson Knox, TE
I am always looking for a low-priced lineup balancer for these NFL DFS contests, and it might well be Bills TE Dawson Knox who provides that opportunity this week. Knox has caught touchdowns in his last two games, and while he has not done much else, it would represent a solid return on his salary.
The Chiefs did allow an average of 14.73 fantasy points to the TE position in the last four weeks of the regular season, so there is some vulnerability. Those points came more through yards and receptions than touchdowns,potentially pointingt to Dalton Kincaid. However, that carries a significant cost upgrade.
Knox is a player I am considering only in the showdown format for this game, where he is just an intriguing player from an ROI perspective. The problem is that he will be very much a boom-or-bust play, so including him carries a decent amount of risk.
Chiefs and Bills DST
With the potential of cold weather and wind, this could be a game that is dominated by defense. Of the two, the Chiefs have the more solid floor, while the Bills have the more upside potential. Buffalo has proven capable of getting DST scores in the upper teens or low 20s this year.
In contrast, the Chiefs have tended to sit more in the 6-15 point range but bring that added level of control. The Chiefs’ defense is a top-two unit in terms of turnovers, points allowed, and sacks. If I were going to bet on one of these two QBs to wilt under the pressure, it would be Allen.