Week 9 concludes on Monday night with the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With both teams having lost multiple contributors to injury this season, building a strong daily fantasy football lineup can seem daunting.
Below we take a look at my top recommendations for DFS in this game using DraftKings salaries.
Week 9 Monday Night DFS Showdown Picks
- CAPTAIN: Cade Otton ($12,600)
- FLEX: Kareem Hunt ($9,800)
- FLEX: Baker Mayfield ($9,600)
- FLEX: Travis Kelce ($8,800)
- FLEX: Chiefs D/ST ($5,000)
- FLEX: Trey Palmer ($4,000)
Cade Otton and Travis Kelce
The captain’s pick is the most crucial part of this contest, as that player scores 1.5 times the fantasy points but also costs extra. Otton is the right balance of high upside and a salary that won’t totally break your bank.
Otton has the most favorable matchup in this game, as the Chiefs have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends this season. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out, Otton was the centerpiece of the passing game in Week 8 versus the Atlanta Falcons.
Make that ✌️ for @CadeOtton
📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX pic.twitter.com/cENQFlg1Bk
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 27, 2024
Otton has had 10 targets in back-to-back games, joining Brock Bowers as the only tight end to do that this season. His 17 receptions in those games are the most among tight ends in that span, and his 181 receiving yards rank second behind George Kittle.
On the other side, Kelce has almost an equally favorable matchup. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends, which makes Kelce a must-start in any lineup.
Kelce has rebounded from a slow start and is the TE2 overall since Week 4 (behind Kittle). His 29.5% target share since Week 4 is the highest among tight ends and fifth-highest regardless of position.
Kansas City likely prefers to give the 35-year-old tight end a little less work to keep him fresh for the playoffs, but the lack of pass-catching options has forced their hand with Kelce, and fantasy managers are benefitting.
Kareem Hunt and Chiefs D/ST
Hunt has turned back the clock to 2017, emerging as a bellcow back in his second stint with the Chiefs. Since making his return in Week 4, Hunt is the RB10 overall thanks to a high-volume approach. Hunt has averaged 21 carries per game in that span, second-most behind Kyren Williams (21.8).
Hunt is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, in part because of his lack of explosive runs. Only three of his 84 carries have gained 10+ yards this season. However, Andy Reid sounded resolute on maintaining Hunt’s workload when asked about it this week, an encouraging sign regarding his fantasy value.
#Chiefs HC Andy Reid on Kareem Hunt’s declining efficiency and whether Hunt’s massive workload is sustainable:
“He didn’t have training camp, so I look at it like it’s the third day of training camp. He’ll start picking it up as we go here now. He’s had good work, and I think… pic.twitter.com/hMMNoUbt7V
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 28, 2024
With this being a fairly top-heavy lineup centered around the top four players, you’ll need a couple of bargain values to fill out the roster. The Chiefs’ defense has provided more value in fantasy than real life, ranking 12th in fantasy points per game and ninth in EPA per play.
Mayfield is tied for the third-most turnovers this season (nine) and also ranks 17th in sack rate. That should give the Chiefs plenty of opportunities to generate enough negative plays to support reasonable fantasy value in this game.
Baker Mayfield and Trey Palmer
If Kansas City is playing from ahead as expected, the game script could support strong fantasy value for Mayfield, even if his turnover streak continues. Mayfield ranks third in pass attempts per game (35.5), a primary reason for his league-leading 21 touchdown passes.
With Patrick Mahomes providing unsteady fantasy value this season, Mayfield is the safer option despite also being the cheaper player in this game (Mahomes’ FLEX salary is $10,000). Mayfield is the QB2 overall in fantasy this season behind Lamar Jackson, so continue to play the Bucs quarterback with confidence.
Trey Palmer is the cheapest player in this game, and it’s a dart throw based on Tampa Bay’s injury-riddled pass-catching group. Palmer ran the third-most routes last week behind Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton. However, he was only able to turn that into two targets, both of which he caught for 29 yards.
But with Sterling Shepard out with a hamstring injury, the Buccaneers have little choice but to run Palmer back out again. Assuming a similarly high volume of snaps, Palmer will likely fall into a few more targets if this ends up being a pass-first game script for Tampa Bay.