Daily fantasy football is a completely different beast than season-long. This Monday night, we have a treat from our NFL overlords — two games for the third time this season! That means this will not be a typical showdown lineup but a classic two-game slate. Here are my top DFS picks for Week 7 MNF.
Week 7 Monday Night DFS Picks
- QB: Baker Mayfield ($6,800)
- RB: J.K. Dobbins ($6,400)
- RB: James Conner ($6,600)
- WR: Chris Godwin ($7,400)
- WR: Zay Flowers ($6,700)
- WR: Rashod Bateman ($4,300)
- TE: Cade Otton ($3,600)
- FLEX: Ladd McConkey ($4,900)
- DEF: Chargers ($3,300)
Week 7 DFS Pick: QB Baker Mayfield
The popular pick is undoubtedly going to be Lamar Jackson. After all, he’s been the best quarterback in fantasy this year, never scoring below 17.4 fantasy points and posting 23+ in four of his six starts.
This Baltimore Ravens-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game has the potential to be a real banger. These are two pass-funnel defenses with the Ravens leading the league in rush defense success rate. However, they are seventh-worst in pass defense success rate.
Baker Mayfield is still not getting the respect he deserves in fantasy circles. The former No. 1 overall pick has been playing like a No. 1 overall pick this season. He’s had one dud against the Denver Broncos’ elite pass defense. Other than that, he’s scored 19.8 fantasy points or more in every game.
The Bucs should go pass-heavy in this one, leading to a big game from Mayfield.
Week 7 DFS Pick: RBs J.K. Dobbins and James Conner
This is a smash spot for J.K. Dobbins, who has been a pretty easy player to project this season once we figured out he’s still good. He flops when he faces elite run defenses like Weeks 2 and 3, scoring single-digit fantasy points in both. Conversely, he smashes when he faces average or worse run defenses, as he’s scored at least 18.2 fantasy points in his other three contests.
The Arizona Cardinals rank sixth-worst in rush defense success rate. They are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
J.K. Dobbins could be set to shred the Cardinals' run defense ⚡
Dobbins ranks 6th among RBs in rushing yards this season. He'll face an Arizona defense that ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, making this a favorable matchup for the Chargers' ground game. pic.twitter.com/xi3saxYanR
— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) October 17, 2024
The Los Angeles Chargers want to establish the run. They have the eighth-highest neutral game script run rate, and they seem to have no problem leaning on Dobbins, who touched the ball 27 times last week.
On the other side of the field, we’re going with a volume play in James Conner. The Chargers have actually been very good against the run, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
The gamble here is that the Cardinals will recommit to Conner after they moved away from last week due to game script reasons. This game should not get away from the Cardinals to the point where they need to completely abandon the run.
Week 7 DFS Pick: WRs Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman
It’s pretty clear the story we’re telling here with the Ravens/Bucs game: an aerial battle. Chris Godwin looks very nice in a stack with Mayfield against a Ravens defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Especially with Mike Evans banged up dealing with a hamstring issue, we could see Godwin peppered with targets in this one.
To complete the game stack, we are going to run it back with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. Flowers has been on fire lately with over 110 receiving yards in two straight. He’s been posting elite numbers without a touchdown.
Zay Flowers was electric the last two weeks:
💐 21 targets (6th-most)
💐 16 catches (4th-most)
💐 243 receiving yards (2nd-most)
💐 132 yards after the catch (2nd-most)Tampa Bay has allowed the 4th-most passing yards per game this year (252.3) pic.twitter.com/hzHuEEC7eX
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 18, 2024
Well, the Bucs are allowing a touchdown per game to wide receivers. If not Flowers, then Bateman is likely to catch one, as he’s scored in two of his last four games.
Week 7 DFS Pick: TE Cade Otton
If we’re not paying up for Trey McBride, the move is to go all the way down to Cade Otton. Plus, we need another piece of the Bucs’ passing attack to pair with Mayfield aside from Godwin.
Otton has quietly been pretty solid this season. He’s seen at least six targets in three of his last four games. There’s sneaky upside against a Ravens defense that sees 24.4% of its total receiving yards allowed going to tight ends.
Week 7 DFS Pick: Flex Ladd McConkey
Not every piece of a lineup can fit in perfectly. With only four teams to choose from and salary constraints, Ladd McConkey just happened to fit in just right to get this lineup exactly at the cap.
McConkey has played well this season but hasn’t really been able to put together any huge games due to the Chargers’ run-heavy scheme. However, his usage has been excellent.
McConkey has earned a 26.7% target share and is being targeted at a super encouraging 29.6% of his routes run, the 12th-highest rate in the league.
The Cardinals allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and he’s the only Chargers WR worth anything in fantasy.
Week 7 DFS Pick: Chargers Defense
Finally, we have to pick a defense. The Chargers are the most expensive, but our hands are tied here. We don’t want to take a defense in the Bucs/Ravens game because we are banking on that being a shootout. That forces us to look at the Chargers or Cardinals.
If one of these games is going to be a low-scoring defensive slog, it will be this one. We don’t necessarily want that because of our other pieces, but Kyler Murray has been prone to mistakes in the past and is more likely to turn the ball over than Justin Herbert, who simply doesn’t drop back to pass enough to allow defenses big games against him.
