Week 12 concludes with the third edition of the “HarBowl” between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.
Ahead of this Monday Night Football showdown, who are the best players to plug in your DFS lineup using DraftKings’ prices?
Week 12 MNF DFS Picks
- CAPTAIN: Justin Herbert ($15,600)
- FLEX: Derrick Henry ($10,800)
- FLEX: Quentin Johnston ($7,400)
- FLEX: Will Dissly ($6,400)
- FLEX: Rashod Bateman ($5,400)
- FLEX: Isaiah Likely ($4,400)
DFS Strategy: Lean Into the Chargers’ Passing Game
Justin Herbert is our captain in this game, as he has one of the most favorable matchups of any quarterback in Week 12. Herbert has peaked in recent weeks, ranking as the QB6 in fantasy points per game since Week 8.
Baltimore has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, showing few signs that they can slow down this Chargers offense. Moreover, the Ravens rank last against WRs and 22nd against TEs but seventh against RBs. Therefore, this matchup is as clear of a Chargers passing-offense funnel as you can ask for in constructing your DFS lineup.
While Ladd McConkey is the top option in the passing game, his higher salary — coupled with concerns around his shoulder injury — make him a much riskier play than he’d normally be. As such, it might behoove you to take the second and third options in the Chargers’ passing offense as opposed to McConkey plus a deeper flier.
Quentin Johnston is the most explosive pass catcher on the Chargers’ roster, averaging 16.1 yards per attempt and recording a team-high six touchdowns. Five of his six touchdowns have come from more than 15 yards out, and now he faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the most completions of 15+ air yards this season.
Will Dissly has also become a reliable volume target in recent weeks. Dissly’s 27.7% target rate is the third-highest among tight ends this season, behind Evan Engram and Brock Bowers. He also caught his first touchdown of the season last week, a welcome regression to the mean considering his level of volume.
DFS Strategy: Build Your Lineup Around a Positive Ravens Game Script
So, if we’re going to lean into the Chargers’ passing game for the matchups, that also insinuates a potential game script in which Los Angeles is either close or trailing. Your lineup would synchronize well if you subsequently pick Derrick Henry, who will get more touches and snaps if the Ravens are close or ahead.
You’ll want to pick either Henry or Lamar Jackson (but probably not both), given their prohibitive salaries. Henry is riskier since he sees his snaps cut in favor of Justice Hill when the Ravens are trailing. But if you’re leaning into the Chargers’ passing game, that likely portends a game script in which Henry should get a fair amount of work as well.
Rashod Bateman is also a high-upside cheap option in this contest. One of the few weaknesses on the Chargers’ defense has been defending the deep ball. Los Angeles ranks 27th in completion percentage allowed on passes of 15+ air yards (52.8%), a fault that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase exploited last week.
Bateman is the most explosive Ravens receiver, averaging 16.1 yards per reception off a team-high 12.7 aDOT. In fact, Bateman’s yards per catch average is 10th-best in the NFL, making him the perfect boom-or-bust option to fill out your DFS lineup on the cheap.
Finally, while Isaiah Likely is a difficult player to trust in fantasy, he’s garnered at least four targets in four of his past five games. He sees a slight uptick in snaps when the Ravens are tied or ahead compared to when they’re trailing, so he also fits into this game theory strategy.