After what always feels like an eternity, Week 1 of the fantasy football season has arrived.
Fantasy managers should always be looking to improve their rosters. With that in mind, here are a handful of players to explore trades for, either to buy low on those who are undervalued or sell high on ones overvalued.
Top Players To Buy In Your League
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Ahead of Week 1, this column is heavily based on my predraft opinions.
I am not sure why everyone assumes Kirk Cousins is suddenly going to forget how to play football. We’ve bumped Drake London up from a mid-round pick to the second round. Bijan Robinson is going as the overall RB2 or RB3 in every draft.
The fantasy community has very clearly decided the Falcons are going to be much better offensively. We can attribute a lot of that to Cousins. So, why is he being treated like an afterthought?
I get that he doesn’t run, and coming off a torn Achilles, there’s even less hope for any sort of rushing production. However, Cousins has never been bad … ever.
Cousins has two overall QB18 finishes in his career. Otherwise, he’s never been worse than the QB12. He’s never averaged fewer than 16.6 fantasy points per game.
Cousins will once again be a back-end QB1. It’s what he does. If you are in need of a quarterback, you can get Cousins for nothing right now.
I believe that after just one week, everyone will quickly be reminded how solid of an option Cousins is.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
I don’t know if there’s any running back I’ve warmed up to more over the summer than Javonte Williams.
Early on, there was much ambiguity regarding the Broncos’ backfield. That led to reduced prices for all of their backs. We now have clarity. Williams is the RB1, and Jaleel McLaughlin is the RB2.
Once upon a time, Williams was considered a potential RB1 in fantasy. Then, he destroyed his knee. He is now two years removed from that injury.
This backfield is down to just two guys. No team targets running backs more than the Broncos, giving Williams a nice floor in terms of receptions.
I don’t know if we’ll ever see Williams reach RB1 numbers, but you can acquire him for an RB3 price tag.
My suspicion is after Williams sees 15+ touches in Week 1, the perception of him will change significantly. Now is the time to get ahead of it.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
The fantasy community so desperately wants Chase Brown to be the guy. And maybe he will be. But the Bengals signed Zack Moss for a reason, and he didn’t play the entire preseason as a protected member of this roster.
One way or another, this is going to be a committee. However, all of the chatter has been about Brown.
Bengals beat reporters have projected Brown to lead the team in touches. Brown is the sophomore RB who is far more exciting than the journeyman Moss.
Here’s how I see it: Brown will be better in the receiving department and always produce more splash plays. But I still think Moss is going to be the guy on early downs and, most importantly, near the goal line.
With all of the momentum shifting toward Brown, Moss is being forgotten. His price may never be lower than it is right now.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
It appears I am just buying low on the entire Bengals offense.
Tee Higgins is another forgotten man, largely due to his seemingly awful 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Obviously, rostering Higgins the past two seasons was not fun. But we’re not drafting Higgins based on what he did — we’re drafting him based on what he will do.
This is someone who was being valued as a borderline WR1 heading into last season. Suddenly, he’s being treated as a WR3.
I understand why. But I think everyone will be reminded just how talented Higgins is after Week 1.
Last season, Higgins was banged up, Joe Burrow was never really healthy, and there were a lot of flukey things unlikely to repeat themselves. The year prior, Higgins’ fantasy points per game average was skewed by games where he left early.
If we remove his anomalous Week 1, as well as the three games he left early, Higgins averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game in his other eight contests in 2023. If you remove the four games Higgins left early due to injury in 2022, he was around the same average.
At his current price, Higgins needs to average around 12-13 ppg to justify his cost in drafts. I think he’ll average 15+ ppg this season.
Buy.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
After rookie WRs smashed last season, it’s no surprise that two of the greatest WR prospects of all time are going higher than any rookie WRs ever have.
In general, the price of rookies has been inflated. Yet, Brian Thomas Jr. feels like he’s being disrespected a bit.
Thomas is in a better position to succeed than guys like Ladd McConkey or Rome Odunze. His situation is not too far behind Xavier Worthy’s, yet he goes behind all of them.
I would take Thomas over every rookie WR except Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Worthy. There’s legitimate top-24 upside for Thomas in a Jaguars offense that lacks a true alpha at receiver.
Christian Kirk is reportedly only playing in three-receiver sets. Gabe Davis is … well … Gabe Davis.
Calvin Ridley’s role last season was a valuable one. The only reason it didn’t work out is that Ridley isn’t as good as people believe.
Thomas is better right now than Ridley was last year. And even if Thomas merely does what Ridley did, that will be a massively positive return on investment.
I believe that’s Thomas’ floor. He’s being drafted below his floor.
Thomas’ value is set to skyrocket rather quickly. He will never be cheaper than he is now.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
David Njoku is actually coming off the best season of his career, averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall TE7.
Those numbers aren’t exactly moving the needle. A tight end really needs to get to 14 ppg to truly make a difference.
However, Njoku actually did move the needle for fantasy managers over the second half of the season.
From Week 8 through the end of the season, Njoku averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game, which are borderline WR1 numbers. Not only was Njoku a TE1, but he was also a league winner.
In Weeks 14-17 — the most important weeks of the fantasy season — Njoku posted games of 27.1, 26.4, 16.4, and 17.4, respectively.
Why is Njoku an afterthought in fantasy drafts? He’s an option for fantasy managers who punt tight end, except he’s far better than a punt pick.
If you punted TE completely and got someone worse than Njoku, take a shot at trying to pry the Browns TE away from his fantasy manager.
Top Players To Sell In Your League
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
To be fair, it’s hard to say any QB is a sell before the season starts, even C.J. Stroud. The best time to sell Stroud will be after he has a 300-yard, three-touchdown performance. This is largely based on predraft takes.
Stroud is awesome. He’s already a top-five real-life quarterback. However, he’s not a mobile quarterback, which makes it exceedingly difficult for him to post an elite fantasy season.
Even 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns won’t be enough to touch the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. Yet, Stroud is being valued as a borderline top-five fantasy QB.
If you can sell him for something like Jayden Daniels and more, I would do that.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
To be fair, I’m not quite sure you can actually sell Rhamondre Stevenson high. The hype surrounding him is lacking. But he has an ADP inside the top 24 running backs. Clearly, the fantasy community views him as an RB2.
My guess is there’s a bit of optimism based on the fact that Stevenson is a really good football player. It’s a shame he’s stuck on the Patriots.
We get things wrong every year. Who saw the Texans coming as a top offense last season? But I don’t think we’re wrong with viewing the Patriots as an offense to avoid.
Stevenson is likely to lose passing down work to Antonio Gibson. That means the bulk of his production has to come from early-down carries and goal-line work.
Having the goal-line role is great, but how valuable is it on a team that scored all of 25 offensive touchdowns last season? Stevenson ran for a whopping four touchdowns in 2023.
My guess is fantasy managers who drafted Stevenson will quickly regret it. If that was you, try and get out now.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders
Seeing Austin Ekeler with an ADP inside the top 30 running backs was quite surprising. As an RB3, Ekeler is not exactly someone you can sell for any sort of big-time return. I just happen to think any reasonable return is worth it.
There are two schools of thought surrounding Ekeler’s awful 2023 season: Either he was hampered by his Week 1 high ankle sprain, which never fully healed, or he’s done. I believe the answer is the latter.
Ekeler’s upside was already questionable. He’s now the RB2 behind Brian Robinson Jr. and likely limited to six to eight carries and receiving work. That receiving role just isn’t going to be valuable in a Jayden Daniels-led offense.
With reduced receiving upside and a lack of goal-line carries, what minimal value Ekeler has left is still likely greater than what fantasy managers will actually get.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
We will soon have an answer to what happened to Stefon Diggs during the second half of last season.
Despite seeing more than double the targets, Diggs had fewer receiving yards than teammate Khalil Shakir once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Did Diggs just lose it, or was it a shift in offensive philosophy?
The fantasy community is treating Diggs as the clear WR2 in Houston. He’s being discounted for not being the clear top target anymore, but he’s not being treated as if there was any decline in ability.
I’ve made my position abundantly clear: I don’t think Diggs is the same guy. While he certainly won’t be useless, I straight-up prefer Tank Dell.
Diggs will have fantasy value. However, I suspect it will be as a receptions-based WR3 and not the mid-WR2 he’s being drafted as. That makes him someone to sell before the cat is out of the bag.
Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
I don’t think Davante Adams is cooked. While he’s not quite as good as he was in his 20s, Adams is not about to fall off a cliff. However, he’s still being treated like he’s a WR1 in fantasy. He wasn’t one last season, averaging just 15.6 fantasy points per game.
While that’s far from terrible, it was Adams’ worst performance since 2016.
Now, to be fair, a lot of it wasn’t on Adams. His quarterback play was … not the best. The problem is he’s now another year older and he’s being valued as if it’s going to get better.
Adams needs to at least do what he did last year to return par value. I think what he did last year is close to his ceiling, which is where he’s being drafted.
The optimism on Adams may quickly dissipate once fantasy managers realize 2024 is going to look a lot like 2023. He may never be as valuable to sell as he is right now.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
I understand the cautious optimism surrounding Pat Freiermuth. He was a very good prospect, he had a strong rookie year and took a step forward as a sophomore but got unlucky in the touchdown department, and last year, he was a victim of injury and awful quarterback play.
This season, with Diontae Johnson gone, Freiermuth could very well be the second option in Pittsburgh’s passing game behind George Pickens. All of this points toward Muth as a solid back-end TE1.
But I have concerns.
The Steelers are going to use more two-TE sets this year. While that may seem good for Freiermuth, if preseason is any indication, he’s not going to be more than a 70% snap share guy. And he’s certainly not running routes on 100% of his snaps.
We saw Jonnu Smith outperform Kyle Pitts in Atlanta last year. Welcome to an Arthur Smith offense.
I fear Freiermuth may end up being a guy who only gets two or three targets per game, and you pray he finds the end zone.
I’m not sure what you can fetch for Freiermuth in a deal, but if it’s anything of substance, trade him before you drop him.