The Atlanta Falcons have lost four straight and are in dangerous territory with how well the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing. Fortunately, with wins in both meetings against the Bucs, the Falcons would have the tiebreaker for the division if it comes to that. However, before that even comes into discussion, Atlanta must focus on winning out and hope Tampa Bay loses at least one.
The Las Vegas Raiders, on the other hand, are in clear No. 1 overall pick territory. There’s nothing worth playing for in regards to the 2024 season at this point, but players and coaches will continue giving it their all when considering long-term incentives.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Falcons -6 - Moneyline
Falcons (-298); Raiders (+240) - Over/Under
44.5 total points - Game Time
8:30 p.m ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium
Falcons vs. Raiders Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Falcons rank 12th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play despite their poor performance in the last few weeks. Atlanta drops to 15th in EPA per play when you remove the two games against Tampa Bay.
For some reason, Kirk Cousins decided to play out of his mind in both of those matchups. If you look at just the second half of the season, the Falcons drop to 17th.
The final split I want to look at is the four-game losing streak, in which Atlanta ranks 23rd. Although the defense hasn’t been great either, it’s clear that the Falcons’ usually good offense has fallen off in recent weeks.
Atlanta ranks 29th in EPA on play-action passes during this four-game skid, 29th in EPA under pressure, and has the fourth-most EPA lost to turnovers. Combining this with the fact that the defense ranks 30th in EPA per play over this time frame and 29th throughout the season and you have a clear recipe for disaster.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 22nd in defensive EPA per play, 23rd in success rate, 25th in turnover EPA generated, and 27th in pressure generated. Quite frankly, there really isn’t anything good about this defense outside of a few individual players like Maxx Crosby, who hadn’t been playing as well as usual this season.
Offensively, the Raiders are arguably worse: 31st in EPA, 26th in success rate, 21st in passing explosives, and 31st in rushing explosives. It doesn’t matter the quarterback; they’ve all awfully performed.
Of 42 quarterbacks with over 100 attempts, Gardner Minshew II ranks 35th in EPA per dropback, and Aidan O’Connell is 22nd. With O’Connell starting, Las Vegas drops to dead last in EPA.
Overall, the Raiders are not a good team, but the Falcons aren’t playing well, either. The one thing Atlanta has been good at in this stretch, however, has been generating big plays. Surprisingly, though, Vegas’ defense actually does well in this department, ranking 10th in both passing and rushing explosive play rate allowed.
The last thing I want to look at is game script. The Falcons rank sixth in EDP on scripted drives, and the Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd. Las Vegas’ offense is below average in scripted drives, while Atlanta ranks 29th in defensive EDP in that situation. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 22nd in EPA when leading, while the Raiders are seventh in defensive EPA when trailing.
There is some potential for the Raiders to be competitive, and the Falcons are six-point favorites despite playing terribly in the last few weeks.
My pick: Raiders +6 (-110)