At 8-7, the Atlanta Falcons have two head-to-head wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which would give them the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record. This will be of the utmost importance as neither team is likely to get a Wild Card spot in an NFC that will feature multiple 11+ win teams on the road.
The Washington Commanders have played better than anyone could have hoped this season. With two games still to go, they’re already at 10 wins, which is 3.5 more than their 6.5-win projection from DraftKings at the beginning of the season.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Commanders -3.5 - Moneyline
Commanders (-180); Falcons (+150) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m ET - Location
Northwest Stadium
Falcons vs. Commanders Preview and Prediction
Washington’s offense ranks fourth in EPA (expected points added) per play, according to TruMedia. They also rank third in success rate, 15th in explosive pass rate, and eighth in explosive rush rate. The play-calling has been tailor-made for Jayden Daniels, and he’s delivered.
The Commanders lead the league in EPA gained from scrambles and are fifth in EPA gained from designed quarterback runs. The biggest weakness as a prospect for Daniels was his pressure-to-sack rate. Many scouts (myself included) claimed he held the ball for too long, and it resulted in too many negative plays.
Yet, this season, the Commanders rank 12th in least amount of EPA lost from sacks and are 20th in sack rate. For Daniels himself, his time to throw is the 10th longest of 43 qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s database. His pressure-to-sack rate is 20th of 43 quarterbacks, and his offense ranks fifth in EPA on throws longer than his average of 2.96 seconds.
Safe to say he proved us wrong.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 15th against these longer-developing plays but also ranks 27th in quick pressure rate and 29th in overall pressure rate. The defense won’t be able to pressure Daniels, but it could at least be competitive when he leaves the pocket.
The Falcons rank 14th in defensive EPA when the opposing quarterback scrambles and 17th in EPA on plays outside of the pocket vs. 23rd inside of the pocket.
The Falcons are challenging to evaluate in this game since it’s only Michael Penix Jr.’s second career start. While predicting Atlanta’s tendencies might be more feasible than assessing their overall skill level and stats, we can rely on how Penix is perceived as a prospect and use his one-game sample size to make educated guesses on how this offense will operate against Washington.
Throughout this season, the Falcons rank seventh in offensive EPA per play on scripted drives, showing the coaches’ ability to scheme up quick hitters before adjustments are made.
Kirk Cousins’ injury and age made it almost impossible for Atlanta to be effective in play-action this season, which resulted in running the least amount of play-action in the NFL by a wide margin.
In Week 16, the Falcons didn’t increase their average by much, but they still did it more often than usual. Atlanta also averages 33.13 plays in the pocket this season vs. 1.6 plays outside of the pocket (dead last).
Last week, the ratio changed from 33:2 to 26:4. Again, not gigantic changes because Penix is still a guy who likes to hang in the pocket, but there’s a clear sense of trust in mobility compared to Cousins.
The main thing the Falcons benefit from with Penix is his uncanny ability to avoid pressure. His pressure-to-sack rate was elite in college and looks the part thus far, getting sacked zero times on a pressure rate of 31%. There have been 83 games this season where a team was pressured on 30-34%of their dropbacks. Only 11 of them resulted in zero sacks.
The Commanders’ defense ranks ninth in both pressure rate and pressure-to-sack rate this season. The advantage, however, still goes to Atlanta because the No. 1 team in terms of pressure-to-sack rate is the New York Giants, to whom Atlanta gave up zero sacks last week.
As a whole, the Commanders rank 27th in defensive EPA per play and 14th in success rate. They are surprisingly good at limiting explosive passes (eighth) but awful at limiting explosive runs, giving up 3.8 rushes of 10+ yards per game (28th).
With this only being Game 2 for Penix, I would imagine the Falcons prefer to let Bijan Robinson try to take the top off this lackluster run defense. Atlanta’s offensive line has the second-best PFF run block grade, and they rank 11th in yards per rush after contact. They will be facing a defense that gives up a successful run on 41.3% of rushes (25th) and allow 4.8 yards per rush (29th).
Unfortunately for the Falcons, the teams to beat Washington this year are the Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, Bucs, and Ravens. The average to below-average defenses (Cowboys, Ravens, Bucs) put up an average of 33.7 points per game on the defense to win these games. The Eagles and Steelers scored 26 and 28, respectively, but limited the Commanders to below their season average in points.
The Falcons have scored 30+ in just four games, two of which came against Tampa Bay. Overall, this game will come down to who can dictate the terms and conditions. If Atlanta can score early and lean on the run game, it might have a fighter’s chance in this game. However, I still think the edge is with Daniels and this elite offense.
My pick: Commanders -3.5