The Atlanta Falcons have firm control of the NFC South and now face the fading New Orleans Saints, who just fired Dennis Allen after a loss to the Panthers. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
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Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48) at New Orleans Saints
Ranking 20th in our PR+ metric, the Atlanta Falcons are the least convincing of the four NFC division leaders right now, despite five wins in their last six games. Even their win over the Dallas Cowboys wasn’t that dominant, with our internal metrics suggesting they were lucky to come out on top based on the underlying numbers.
Entering Week 10, the Falcons have been very reliant on their offense, which ranks ninth, while their defense and special teams are both in the bottom 10.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are tough to judge because they have a very middling team overall but are on a seven-game losing skid, and injuries are starting to pile up.
Both teams could be without their best wide receiver in this game. If that’s the case, scoring could be tough.
The problem is that playing the under on two bottom-half defenses (one ranking 29th) is a big no-no. This game is likely to be close, but the Falcons should have too much for this version of the Saints. I just struggle to put my money on Atlanta on the road right now.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Saints 20
Pick: Pass
Falcons at Saints Game Stats and Insights
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are averaging 13.8 plays per game of 10-plus yards, sixth most in the league and up 11% from a season ago.
QB: Football can be such a complicated game, but it can also be remarkably simple. Over his past two games, when Kirk Cousins has stayed in the pocket, he’s been as good as anyone in the league: 42-53 for 498 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions (145.4 passer rating).
Offense: Despite having a strong running game, no team runs play-action nearly as rarely as the Falcons (8.3% of offensive plays, the Cowboys rank 31st at 10.6%).
Defense: The Falcons own the lowest sack rate in the league (2.7% of opponent dropbacks, league average: 7.1%).
Fantasy: Darnell Mooney, entering this season, averaged 735 receiving yards per 17 games and had a career-high of four touchdown receptions in a season – through nine weeks, he has 588 receiving yards and has caught five touchdown passes.
Betting: The Falcons are 7-3 ATS (70%) in their past 10 divisional road games (2-0 ATS this season with over tickets cashing in both of those instances).
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have lost seven straight games, their longest kid of the 2000s. Three of those losses have come by a field goal or less.
QB: Derek Carr threw five touchdown passes on 39 attempts through Week 2 – he’s thrown four touchdown passes on 120 attempts since.
Offense: Since Week 3, the Saints are the sixth worst offense in the league in terms of yards per play
Defense: The Saints have the sixth lowest opponent passer rating against (80.2, league average: 91.5).
Fantasy: Three times this season has a running back carried the rock 10 times while seeing at least eight targets in consecutive games:
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-6)
- De’Von Achane (Weeks 8-9)
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 8-9)
Betting: The Saints have seen their past five home games played within the division finish more than 16 points off of the spread (each of the past three by more than 20 points).