The Atlanta Falcons‘ RB depth chart was the source of frustration for many fantasy football managers in 2023. Whether that frustration was earned or overblown is another conversation, but in 2024, a new-look offense is taking charge of Atlanta, with quarterback Kirk Cousins at the helm.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier make up one of the best one-two backfield punches in the NFL, and Avery Williams is a versatile fourth-year player out of Boise State who converted from corner to running back in the NFL and doubles as a return specialist.
Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Robinson, Allgeier, and Williams in 2024.
Bijan Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 378.0 (291.1 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1462.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 6.0
- Receptions: 86.9
- Receiving Yards: 729.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 6.0
If you want to give yourself an upset stomach, then just take a closer look at Allgeier’s usage compared to Robinson’s last season.
2023 Rushing Stats:
- Robinson: 214 carries, 976 yards (4.6 YPC), four TDs
- Allgeier: 186 carries, 683 yards (3.7 YPC), four TDs
If that isn’t nauseating enough, Allgeier seeing twice as many carries inside the five-yard line as Robinson last year should be enough to make fantasy managers vomit. If that wasn’t enough to make you sick, then here is the real cherry on top of the expired milkshake. Robinson saw the exact same amount of carries inside the five-yard line as third-string running back Cordarrelle Patterson, a grand total of two.
However, improvement to the offense paired with a new offensive coordinator and a significant upgrade at the quarterback position all project as positives for Robinson’s fantasy outlook in 2024.
Ultimately, I believe in Robinson as an elite talent at the RB position. I do believe his role will expand significantly this season. I do believe Allgeier is going to see far fewer carries this year. And I believe Robinson will be among the league leaders in explosive plays, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per touch.
That is why Robinson is worth the No. 6 overall pick in fantasy drafts this season. I encourage those who are on the clock in fantasy drafts to have faith in Robinson’s talent and watch him live up to the high expectations many had for him last year in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Tyler Allgeier’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 135.6 (119.9 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 798.3
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.2
- Receptions: 15.7
- Receiving Yards: 152.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.9
Allgeier’s 2023 production certainly caught some by surprise, as he recorded 186 carries for 683 yards and four rushing touchdowns while working alongside Robinson. He saw just enough volume to finish the season as the RB36 in full-PPR formats. When you look at Robinson and Allgeier’s rushing numbers side by side, one can quickly realize why Robinson’s fantasy ceiling was a bit capped during his rookie year.
Allgeier’s lack of efficiency doesn’t exactly present a compelling case that he should see a similar amount of work in this Atlanta offense in 2024. For additional context, Allgeier saw 35% of the team’s rushing attempts last year, while Robinson clocked in at just 40%.
If that isn’t nauseating enough, consider the fact that Allgeier saw twice as many carries inside the five-yard line as Robinson. That made Allgeier more of a thorn in the side of Robinson’s shareholders than it did elevating Allgeier into a reliable fantasy starter.
Allgeier is not a bad football player. On the contrary, he has proven he can be a capable back in this league through the first two years of his NFL career. Yet, few people — if any — believe Allgeier should see anywhere near a 50-50 split with Robinson because of the latter’s exceptional playmaking ability.
Can Allgeier still see around 100 carries in 2024? Absolutely. Could he still steal some goal-line work away from Robinson? Possibly. But those two points don’t make enough of a compelling argument that we should expect another low-end RB3 fantasy finish this upcoming season.
The price point isn’t bad, but I’d rather roll the dice on a player who has a bit more upside on draft day.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Avery Williams’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 55.3 (35.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 167.4
- Rushing Touchdowns: 1.5
- Receptions: 20.0
- Receiving Yards: 93.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
If the Falcons are going to use Robinson the way that reports suggest, the idea of exploring the depth of this backfield is logical. Unfortunately for Williams, Allgeier is the next man up, and it’s not close.
After all, Allgeier was a fifth-round pick just two years ago and proved plenty capable of holding up with a bell-cow role as a rookie (4.9 yards per carry and 226 touches). Given the investments this team has made to their pass game over the past two seasons, a Robinson injury would likely put more on Cousins’ plate — not on an unproven back like Williams.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst