Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. Sure enough, entering Week 17, every team in the division has at least seven losses.
With the Atlanta Falcons defeating the New York Giants in Week 16 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to the Dallas Cowboys, let’s break down how the Falcons can win the NFC South or secure a Wild Card spot.
What Is the Falcons’ Current Playoff Picture?
With the Bucs’ Sunday Night Football loss to the Cowboys, the Falcons are currently in first place in the NFC South. If they win out, the division title belongs to them.
The Falcons are 8-7, with remaining games against the Washington Commanders (road) and Carolina Panthers (home).
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are currently 8-7, and they’ll face the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints at home down the stretch.
The NFC South is a two-team race between the Bucs and Falcons. The Falcons won both regular-season games against the Buccaneers, so they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
How Can the Falcons Win the NFC South?
The Falcons are now in first place in the NFC South, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs, so they are in a great spot.
Atlanta must be at least tied with Tampa Bay at the end of the season in terms of its overall record/winning percentage to win the NFC South.
How Can the Falcons Secure a Wild Card Spot?
Even if the Buccaneers end up winning the division, the Falcons can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
If Atlanta finishes with 10 wins and there is still a playoff spot available, then things are looking good for them. They have tiebreaker advantages over the Packers (conference record), Washington Commanders (head-to-head), and Los Angeles Rams (conference record).
If the Falcons finish with nine wins and there is still a playoff spot available, Atlanta currently holds tiebreakers over the Rams (conference record).
But there are only two spots remaining, which means the Packers and Commanders would have to lose their remaining three games for the Falcons to have any chance at a Wild Card spot if they don’t win the division.
Did the Falcons Clinch a Playoff Spot in Week 16?
No, even with their win over the Giants, the Falcons did not clinch a playoff spot this week.
The NFC South race and NFC Wild Card race both seem poised to come down to the wire, so it’s very possible that Atlanta won’t be able to clinch a playoff spot until the final week of the season.
It really comes down to how the Falcons and Bucs fare in their final two games.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.