Sunday Night Football in Week 17 will have several ramifications, whether that be on the NFL playoff picture or on fantasy football championships. Unfortunately, this game also looks set to be significantly impacted by the weather, with the potential for rain and wind throughout the game between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders.
While that won’t necessarily have a major impact on the real-life playoff element, it could make a huge difference in fantasy managers’ decision-making. Let’s analyze the weather forecast for Falcons vs. Commanders and the potential fantasy ramifications.
What Is the Weather Forecast for Sunday Night Football?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: >80% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 11-13 mph southerly with gusts up to 23 mph
While fantasy managers may get lucky with the weather forecast in some of the earlier games of the day, the weather over FedEx Field looks to be at its worst right as the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons take to the field.
There is an 80% chance of rain forecasted throughout the game as well as sustained winds over 10 miles per hour with gusts over 20. In just this season alone, games with rain at kickoff have seen an average fantasy output decrease of around 10-15%. That is based on a relatively small sample size, but when we extend that back over the last decade, the numbers still hold steady.
The average fantasy points scored in a clear weather game over that time period is just over 94 per team. When there is rain at kickoff, that drops to just over 84. That is a decrease of just over 10% in fantasy output, solely based on whether rain falls during the game.
When you then factor in wind speed, things get more dicey for fantasy managers. Games with rain and wind speeds between 11-15 mph see, on average, a slightly bigger drop to just over 80 fantasy points per game per team. That is a decrease of more than 15% from games in “ideal conditions” or those played in domes.
The biggest impact is naturally felt in the passing and kicking games. The passing game sees a drop of around 20% in games with conditions such as these, while kicking success rates drop to below 75% on kicks over 40 yards and below 50% on kicks over 50.
As you would expect, there is minimal impact on the run game since teams tend to lean more heavily on that side of things.
The gusts add further complications, indicating that the kicking games on both sides are probably best avoided if you weren’t already.
On the passing side of things, you should already be hesitant about putting too much faith in Michael Penix Jr. in just his second start. Jayden Daniels’ legs make him a player you can still trust, and the only receiver who is probably worth the risk is Terry McLaurin.
The run game should be profitable on both sides of this one. The B. Robinson clash should give both running backs the potential for plenty of value. Bijan Robinson has a supremely high ceiling in this one, especially if the weather forces the ball into his hands more. Brian Robinson is a little less exciting but remains someone you can likely start with the ball expected to be in his hands plenty in this one.