The playoff hopes for the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears remain slim for both, and to keep those hopes alive, they each need a win this weekend in the worst way.
But which team has the edge in this matchup? Let’s break down this all-important contest and make a betting prediction for the game.
Falcons vs. Bears Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Bears -3
- Moneyline: Falcons (+136), Bears (-162)
- Over/Under: 38
- Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- Channel: CBS
Falcons vs. Bears Prediction
It may be hard to wrap your head around, but the Bears are 6-5 since their miserable 0-4 beginning of the season. That includes wins in three of their last four games, with the only loss coming by a field goal to the Cleveland Browns.
It’s impressive that despite long odds to make the postseason — the NFL’s Next Gen Stats says that the Bears have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs — the Bears still have not been officially eliminated from the playoff picture with two games left in the season.
While a lot of attention has been focused on the play of quarterback Justin Fields, Chicago’s defense has been the most impressive aspect of its turnaround. The Bears have the league’s No. 1 rush defense (80.7 YPG allowed), and since Week 12, they have allowed less than 15 points per game (14.8).
Now they get to face a Falcons team that has plenty of issues offensively, especially away from home. Atlanta has the worst passing offense on the road this season (153.1 yards per game) and the third-worst scoring offense on the road (13.6 PPG).
Falcons quarterback Taylor Heinicke had a good game last week after replacing Desmond Ridder for the second time this season, throwing for 229 yards and a touchdown while not committing any turnovers.
But, last week’s win over the Indianapolis Colts came in Atlanta. The last time the Falcons went on the road, they fell to the lowly Carolina Panthers in Week 15. Before that, it was a narrow win over the hapless New York Jets in Week 13.
Like the Bears, the Falcons’ playoff chances are slim, so wins in their last two games are a must. But when you’re a struggling road team and your last two games are away from home — at Chicago and Green Bay — a spot in the postseason does not look promising.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Injury-wise, the biggest news for Atlanta is that starting offensive tackle Kaleb McGary, who has been inactive the last three weeks with a knee injury, is questionable for this week’s game.
For the Bears, wide receiver Darnell Mooney (concussion) is out for this week, which is a blow to the passing game, but starting tight end Cole Kmet (knee) was able to get a limited practice in on Friday, so he may be able to play on Sunday.
After going through a stretch in which they failed to cover the spread in eight of nine games, the Falcons have covered the number in three of their last five contests. They have also covered the spread in each of their last two games as an underdog.
The Bears, meanwhile, are 6-3-1 vs. the spread against NFC opponents. More impressively, Chicago has covered the number in four of its last five games overall, with the lone loss against the spread over that span coming by a half-point.
The combination of the Bears improving on defense and the Falcons struggling offensively on the road make this a pretty easy choice for this week, especially when you can give up less than a field goal.
Give the points in this one.
Best Bet: Bears -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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