Ezekiel Elliott turned 28 years old this summer and has 2,300 touches on his NFL résumé. The Patriots were not shy about flirting with veteran running backs this offseason, a potential red flag to incumbent Rhamondre Stevenson, a third-round pick in most early fantasy football drafts.
Should Stevenson’s stock dip? Does WR JuJu Smith-Schuster’s value change as the only other Patriot that is being selected with any draft capital?
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Fantasy Impact of Ezekiel Elliott Signing With the New England Patriots
Former #Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is expected to sign with the #Patriots on a 1-year deal worth up to $6 million, per @RapSheet.
Elliott bolsters a bruising New England backfield that already features Rhamondre Stevenson. 😮 pic.twitter.com/9zAViD8uRn
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 14, 2023
Zeke averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season, and the decline came in large part to the inability to pick up yards before contact (down 30% from 2022) despite being behind a strong offensive line. In fact, his 1.05 yards per carry before contact ranked 37th of 41 qualified running backs.
Yikes.
While the Patriots clearly want to manage Stevenson’s reps, Elliott recording his eighth straight season with 230-plus carries is a longshot … a super longshot.
The absolute best case for Elliott would be him partying like he’s 2005-06 Corey Dillon, another veteran workhorse that ended his career with the Pats. Dillon scored 13 touchdowns in all three of his seasons in New England, but his yards per carry trended down with time.
In theory, that role would hold fantasy value … if you trust Mac Jones to generate scoring opportunities at the rate Tom Brady did for those Dillon teams. If it needs to be said, I am not projecting anything close to that. Like Dillon, I expect Elliott to be essentially useless if not scoring TDs, and this team ranked 28th in red-zone trips last season.
Elliott was a fringe top-50 RB for me at the beginning of the month, and he remains in that tier of backup running back. For context, I’d rather have all backfield members in Miami, New Orleans, and Chicago. Of course, a Stevenson injury would put Zeke on my Flex radar, but without that, I don’t trust the quantity or quality of his touches.
How Elliott Impacts the Rest of New England’s Offense
Rhamondre Stevenson
In his second professional season, Stevenson was one of five backs to run for 1,000 yards and average 5.0 yards per carry in 2022, but this signing serves as a signal that the organization is in no hurry to push him past his 16.4 touches per game.
I shifted Stevenson out of my RB1 rankings when it became apparent that the Patriots were destined to add a veteran back, and, therefore, he didn’t move a single spot in my rankings (RB14).
Due to the limitations of this offense, his scoring equity was already low prior to this signing, but now I fear that a 2022 Aaron Jones type of season could be in store in terms of rushing numbers (213 carries, 1,121 yards, and just two touchdowns).
Percentage of fantasy points scored in the red zone by Elliott:
- 2020: 31.4%
- 2021: 40.0%
- 2022: 45.6%
Elliott may be cooked in terms of his every-down skills and upside, but he continued to pay the bills in close, and if he gets those chances in an offense that doesn’t generate many of them, Stevenson is going to struggle to even match his six scores from a season ago.
Stevenson is wedged between Travis Etienne (less competition and a strong offense) and Jahmyr Gibbs (more fear of David Montgomery than Elliott) in my redraft rankings.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
I had no interest in drafting Smith-Schuster this season, and that feeling was only reinforced with this signing. The slot receiver has managed just three scores over his past two seasons (21 games) and now carries even less scoring upside.
Yes, his target share should be safe, but the signing of a player like Zeke isn’t exactly a sign that this offense is looking to open up.
Repeating his 78-933-3 stat line from last season feels like something of an optimistic expectation, and he doesn’t have a path to much of a ceiling.
I have him ranked outside of my top 40 receivers, favoring rookies like Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers in the process. I want either upside or a rock-solid floor … I’m not sure Smith-Schuster offers either in 2023.