The glory days of running back Ezekiel Elliott being an elite fantasy football producer may well be in the rearview mirror, but his return to the Dallas Cowboys may have been the sole landing spot to make him a fantasy difference-maker in 2024.
What type of fantasy production can fantasy managers reasonably expect from Elliott this upcoming season?
Ezekiel Elliott’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 171.7
- Rushing Yards: 782.2
- Rushing TDs: 7.9
- Receptions: 34.8
- Receiving Yards: 208.9
- Receiving TDs: 1.2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Elliott This Year?
Once upon a time, Elliott was a threat to finish any given season as the RB1 overall in fantasy football as the Cowboys’ leading ball carrier. He finished as a top-13 back in full-PPR formats his first six years in the league and as a top-five option on three occasions during that span.
Unfortunately, his production has been going in the wrong direction as of late, particularly regarding his efficiency as a ball carrier.
Elliott’s Yards Per Carry Since 2021
- 2021: 4.23
- 2022: 3.79
- 2023: 3.49
That’s a concerning downward trend, to say the least. Yet, volume can be king in the world of fantasy football. In this case, Elliott’s track record of seeing a minimum of 240+ total touches all seven seasons in a Cowboys uniform is working in his favor.
In fact, the one year Elliott had fewer than 260 touches in Dallas’ offense was his final year with the team when Tony Pollard was a per-touch fantasy darling. Which begs the question, who currently on the roster poses a significant threat to leading the Cowboys’ high-powered offense in total touches this season?
Rico Dowdle? Deuce Vaughn? Royce Freeman?
Mentioning these players in this manner may sound harsh, but I’m simply trying to suggest that Elliott’s track record as a top-30 fantasy back in Dallas’ offense still looks feasible in 2024. The case hasn’t been very compelling for any of the other options pulling ahead of Elliott as Dallas’ projected leading ball carrier. That makes his current price tag as the RB39 off the board in Round 10 pretty intriguing.
No offense in the NFL made more trips to the red zone last year than the Cowboys. On the flip side, Elliott was playing for the New England Patriots — who finished dead last in that department with just 21 touchdowns on a putrid 36 trips to the red zone in 2023.
I still believe the one thing Elliott can do at a high level is convert in short-yardage situations with his physical running style. This could be a very valuable trait from a fantasy perspective in one of the league’s top offensive units.
Additionally, Elliott is a reliable option out of the backfield as both a pass catcher and pass protector — which gives him another edge in regards to staying on the field.
Ultimately, due to his lack of per-touch efficiency and some potential regression from the offensive line, Elliott’s ceiling feels much lower than his prime days in the Cowboys’ offense. However, a leading ball carrier with a proven track of short-yardage success in a high-scoring offense shouldn’t be overlooked. That makes Elliott a reliable, albeit boring, RB4 fantasy option in 2024.