One of the top running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Elliott’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Ezekiel Elliott’s fantasy outlook for 2022
There is no question about it, Elliott has seen a decline in his game over the past few years. As the staggering amount of touches continues to rise, Elliott’s fantasy output has struggled to keep up. However, is it really all doom and gloom, as some want you to believe? Or has the hate gone too far on Elliot, and is the Cowboys’ top running back now a value in fantasy football for 2022?
Ask most people, and they would tell you Elliott was a massive disappointment last season. But was he? Elliott managed to extend his streak of RB1 finishes to six years in a row, finishing as the RB6 in PPR scoring. Additionally, he saw 302 opportunities, the lowest since 2017 when he played in 10 games (280).
Rushing 237 times, Elliott totaled 1,002 yards on the ground with 10 touchdowns. He was also seventh in targets amongst RBs with 65, catching 47 passes for 287 yards with two scores. All in all, Elliott was 15th in per-game scoring (14.8 PPR/game). However, he was just No. 28 in points per touch at 0.84 (minimum 75 touches).
Ezekiel Elliott’s efficiency continues to decline
The volume is there, but Elliott’s efficiency was not. This is a trend that has continued basically since 2018, where his per-carry metrics have been on the decline as the total number of touches has piled up (1,938). Still, Elliott rattled off RB1 weeks in 35% of his games last season and finished inside the top 24 in 65%. While this is a decrease in his career trends (61% and 86%, respectively), Elliott was not losing you weeks in 2021. He just was not winning them either.
Depending on how much you want to believe offseason narratives, according to Elliott and multiple reports, he was playing on a torn PCL that he sustained early in the season. Looking back at his usage, this tracks with how the team tried to manage his reps. From Weeks 1 through 6, Elliott was the RB8 in expected fantasy points (16.1). Yet, after the bye week and through the end of the season, he was the RB18 (13.9). Even with this decline after the bye, presumably due to the injury, he came in as the RB13 overall in expected PPR points despite sharing the backfield with Tony Pollard.
What does this mean for Elliott in 2022 fantasy football?
It feels that fantasy managers are either all in or all out on Elliott. The crux of the conversation comes down to the split between Elliott and Pollard and if Pollard will finally supplant Elliott as the Cowboys’ RB1. When on the field together, Pollard does look like the more explosive back.
However, it doesn’t matter what you or I think. It’s what the Cowboys think. And everything we have seen is when Elliott is healthy, he is the top option in the backfield. While Pollard will see a fair share of the reps, Elliott is who is called on for critical opportunities such as red-zone carries. Last season alone, Elliott saw 68% of the snaps inside the red zone compared to Pollard at 26% and was 17th in the league in carries at 35. Pollard had just 15 and only two inside the 5-yard line to Elliott’s 12.
This is still Elliott’s backfield in 2022
When/if Elliott misses time, Pollard is a must-start for fantasy. But in the 30 active games where both are available (2020-2021), Pollard averages 7.5 carries, 2.53 targets, 51.24 yards, and 8.12 PPR/game. Elliott, on the other hand, averages 15.1 rushes, 4.5 targets, 81.26 yards, and 15.76 PPR/game.
While I advise not to take stats as a straight 1-to-1 comparison for the next year, the chances of Pollard completely taking the backfield over are unlikely to happen. Elliott has now become a value in fantasy. As an RB2, he will not cost you weeks in fantasy.
Paired with an RB with more variance like D’Andre Swift or Aaron Jones, the floor of Elliott can help balance out your roster. Is he a must-draft for fantasy football? No, but Elliott is not someone who should be dismissed, especially if the knee injury truly was at play last season.
How the Cowboys’ depth chart impacts Elliott’s fantasy projection for the season
As in years past, the Cowboys should be one of the better teams in football and will compete for the NFC East title. However, they might not be as dangerous, especially early on in the season.
Dak Prescott is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and comes into 2022 with CeeDee Lamb ready to show the world he is a legitimate premier option on the perimeter. He will have the chance to show this in Week 1 as Dallas’ receiver room looks quite different. Amari Cooper is no longer on the team after an offseason trade sent him to the Cleveland Browns for a 2022 fifth-round pick and a swap of 2022 sixth-round picks.
Michael Gallup did receive a new contract; however, he likely will not be back to full strength for some time after tearing his ACL last year. With Cedrick Wilson Jr. leaving for Miami in free agency, it will fall on Jalen Tolbert, a third-round pick out of South Alabama, to complement Lamb until Gallup can return. Tolbert can stretch the field, and each is being undervalued in fantasy at the moment.
Beyond the receivers, TE Dalton Schultz will play a key role in 2022, especially inside the red zone. Until the receiver room is sorted, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was No. 2 in targets behind Lamb for a decent chunk of the season. I also expect both Pollard and Elliott to have their fair share of targets as both are capable receiving options — though Pollard is better in open space. In PPR formats, they each receive a boost, with Elliott a mid RB2 and Pollard in the mid-RB3 range.
Elliott’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 29, Elliott is coming off the boards as the RB15 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him right at the beginning of the third round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, Pollard is the RB31 with an ADP of 84.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Elliott is in a nearly identical spot as the RB16 and 26th overall ranked player. I have him just a smidge lower as my RB17 (35th overall). Where PFN differs is in Pollard’s ADP. While the RB29 is similar, he is the 61st overall player, suggesting more expected volume for him in 2022.
Elliott has steadily moved up as the summer has drawn on, making him less of a value as he once was. But in the third round, that’s still an excellent value for someone of his pedigree.
Even with Pollard seeing a fair share of volume in the passing game, Elliott shouldn’t have any issue returning draft day value. If you need an RB2 after going RB/WR to start, Elliott is one of your last opportunities to lock down a reliable option that carries RB1 upside.