Ezekiel Elliott’s dynasty value is reasonably straightforward these days –- how much volume is his projected specialist role worth? The veteran back struggled to find the end zone last season as part of an underachieving New England Patriots offense, but with him set to hit the open market this season, he could land in a more favorable position in 2024.
How should fantasy football managers feel about the veteran running back as we barrel toward the 2024 offseason?
Ezekiel Elliott’s Dynasty Outlook
Elliott’s basic résumé is one that most fantasy managers look to avoid, be it redraft or dynasty — he’s entering his age-29 season and has over 2,500 touches on his NFL resume. That’s a lot of pounding to assume and risk to take on for a minimal reward.
Ezekiel Elliott goin Old School with the hurdle and TD dive‼️ pic.twitter.com/2qeZ2qTVbh
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 25, 2023
Oct. 3, 2021, was the last time ‘Zeke had a 30-yard rush. Let me say that a different way: 79 players have had a 30+ yard run since the last time Elliott did it. Heading into the week in which he last had such a chunk play, the Arizona Cardinals were the lone unbeaten team in the league, and the Detroit Lions were one of two without a win. Yeah, it’s been a while.
Heck, he didn’t have a 15-yard carry following Halloween in 2023. The splash play was never Elliott’s calling card, but he was able to offset it with scoring equity and sheer volume.
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Regardless of where he lands this offseason, it’s unlikely that he will pick up a 12-15+ touch role. That said, he did still show fluidity in the passing game, a trait that can keep him viable in this league.
Targets per route
- 2020-22 (with the Dallas Cowboys): 11.2%
- 2023 (with the Patriots): 20.6%
So there is some hope that managers can squeeze a little more value out of the veteran back, but it’s going to require a picture-perfect setup.
Elliott’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Elliott land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Elliott lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | DAL
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) D’Andre Swift | PHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | GB
21) Zamir White | LV
22) Austin Ekeler | LAC
23) Tyjae Spears | TEN
24) Joe Mixon | CIN
25) Nick Chubb | CLE
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) David Montgomery | DET
28) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
29) Jaylen Warren | PIT
30) Raheem Mostert | MIA
31) Derrick Henry | TEN
32) Khalil Herbert | CHI
33) James Conner | ARI
34) Kendre Miller | NO
35) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
36) Roschon Johnson | CHI
37) Dameon Pierce | HOU
38) Tank Bigsby | JAX
39) J.K. Dobbins | BAL
40) AJ Dillon | GB
41) Miles Sanders | CAR
42) Alexander Mattison | MIN
43) Gus Edwards | BAL
44) Zack Moss | IND
45) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
46) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
47) Elijah Mitchell | SF
48) Jerome Ford | CLE
49) Antonio Gibson | WAS
50) Darrell Henderson Jr. | FA
51) Jamaal Williams | NO
52) Devin Singletary | HOU
53) Chase Brown | CIN
54) Rashaad Penny | PHI
55) Samaje Perine | DEN
56) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI
57) Deuce Vaughn | DAL
58) D’Onta Foreman | CHI
59) Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE
60) Jordan Mason | SF
61) Sean Tucker | TB
62) Cam Akers | MIN
63) Michael Carter | ARI
64) Leonard Fournette | BUF
65) Damien Harris | BUF
66) Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA
67) Ezekiel Elliott | NE
68) Zach Evans | LAR
69) Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC
70) Jerick McKinnon | KC
Should You Trade Elliott in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Elliott? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
How much does he depend on the offensive environment that he is a part of? Elliott scored on just 1.6% of his carries in 2023, down from a career rate that stood at 3.6% with the Cowboys and 4.7% in his final two seasons with America’s Team.
Was that his fault last season? Not entirely –- he didn’t have a chance!
Percentage of carries coming in the red zone:
- 2020: 18.4%
- 2021: 14.8%
- 2022: 15.2%
- 2023: 11.4%
Splits like that are going to be difficult for any pounding running back to produce fantasy numbers, let alone one of the back-nine of his career. Elliott averaged a career-low 2.5 yards per carry after contact last season, and he also recorded a career-low in yards per carry before contact (under one yard).
The skill deterioration is happening, and while that doesn’t completely rule him out of viability in 2024, the upside that he still has access to is fading quickly.
If you’re rostering Elliott, you are begging for him to land on a team that frequents the red zone with regularity and is willing to give him that vulture role.
2023 leaders in red-zone drives:
- Cowboys: 71
- Baltimore Ravens: 68
- San Francisco 49ers: 67
- Buffalo Bills: 65
- Green Bay Packers: 64
- Detroit Lions: 64
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Is there space on any of those rosters for a skill set like that of Elliott? It’s possible, depending on how free agency goes at the position, so I’d keep Elliott at the bottom of my roster without expectations.
Still, I’m ready to move on if there isn’t any interest or the teams that are willing to sign up for his services aren’t in a position to give him at least a shot at carving out a niche.
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