As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Ezekiel Elliott.
Ezekiel Elliott’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
As things currently stand, Elliott is one of the trickiest players to evaluate in all of fantasy football. Elliott used to be an elite running back, both in fantasy and reality. In 2023, he is neither.
Elliott’s career peaked in 2018 when he averaged 21.8 PPR ppg, finishing as the overall RB6. From 2016-2019, Elliott was a top-six fantasy running back each year. Unfortunately, things have been trending downward for half a decade.
Since Elliott’s best season in 2019, his ppg average has dropped every season. He remained elite in 2019 but completely fell off in 2020, averaging 14.9 ppg. He followed that up with a near-identical 14.8 ppg in 2021.
Heading into 2022, Elliott saw his redraft ADP fall out of the first round for the first time in his career. By the end of the 2020 season, it was clear Tony Pollard was the superior talent. But the Cowboys remained committed to Zeke as the lead back. That was the case again in 2021, making him a tricky evaluation in 2022.
Elliott opened the season as the lead back but was clearly not as good as he used to be. Ultimately, Pollard could not be denied.
As a result, Elliott posted career lows across the board. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry. His passing-game role completely vanished, commanding just a 4.8% target share. Elliott averaged 12.4 ppg — low-end RB2 numbers. Most problematic, he lacked a ceiling. Elliott didn’t have a single game where he reached 20 fantasy points. In fact, Elliott’s entire value came from touchdowns.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
By way of comparison, Elliott averaged 9.4 ppg fewer this past season than he did in 2018, despite scoring three more touchdowns. He was essentially an expensive Jamaal Williams in a better offense — completely touchdown or bust.
Elliott will be 28 years old this year. He’s noticeably lost a step or three, and we know how quickly running backs can fall off a cliff.
The Cowboys used the franchise tag on Tony Pollard, and are likely still negotiating an extension. But the big news came on March 15, when the Cowboys officially designated Elliott as a post-June 1 cut. I never thought we’d see the day the Cowboys voluntarily moved on from Zeke, but it’s here.
Wherever Zeke ends up, count me out. At 28, he likely has a year or two left of being a fantasy-relevant player. And as we saw in 2022, is he even that relevant?
Ezekiel Elliott’s Fantasy Ranking
I mentioned this ahead of the 2022 season, and it looks to be coming to fruition — the RB position is headed for a massive overhaul by 2024. We had so many talented running backs enter the league from 2015-2017, and they’re all nearing the end. I would be stunned if fantasy managers were still drafting Elliott in 2025.
How much value does an old running back with likely two more years, at best, of a low-end RB2 ceiling have? Even that would be more ambitious than our latest dynasty Superflex rankings suggest. We have Elliott at RB34, No. 115 overall.
It’s very easy to advise fantasy managers to trade Elliott away. It’s very difficult to actually find a manager willing to give up anything of value for him.
Of course, the thesis is always to trade old, declining players for young, ascending players. Easier said than done. But if you have Elliott, I would try to move him. If you don’t have him, I would not bother trying to acquire him unless you’re a win-now team with an RB problem, and he’s really cheap.
In dynasty startup drafts, I want no part of Elliott. He would have to fall very, very far below his ADP for me to push the button on him.