Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s season didn’t end on a high note as he was injured in early December, not that things were going well for him to begin with the season.
Lawrence’s 2024 NFL season ended when he was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 14 following a brutal hit from Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair in Week 13. But even before that injury, it was an ugly season for Lawrence.
Now that it is over, fans and NFL analysts are starting to wonder if Lawrence is worth the $275 million contract the team signed him to.
Was Trevor Lawrence’s New Contract a Mistake?
Lawrence inked a five-year, $275 million deal with the Jaguars over the 2024 offseason, giving him an average annual value of $55 million. Lawrence’s deal includes $200 million in total guarantees.
Since having a breakout season in 2022 and leading his team to the playoffs, Lawrence’s numbers have fallen off. This year alone through 10 games, he had thrown just 11 touchdowns and just a touch over 2,000 yards.
Through the first four years of his career, he has not posted a grade above a C+ for an entire season in PFN’s QB+ metric. Lawrence’s QB+ grade has declined in each of the last two years.
PFN’s QB+ metric assigns a letter grade to every quarterback performance and factors in several stats such as success rate when pressured, third-down conversion rate, pocket production, and clutch performance.
This season, Lawrence ranked 31st of 39 qualified quarterbacks in PFN’s QB+ metric, earning a grade of 64.5 (D). He struggled when under pressure (ranking 33rd in the NFL) and struggled to convert third downs (37th in the NFL). Given his money, Jacksonville undoubtedly expected more from him.
While Lawrence’s performance and deal are in a better place than Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s (44.3, F; five-year, $230 million contract), it may not be long until the two are discussed in a similar light
Who’s To Blame for Lawrence’s Poor Performance?
Several factors could be blamed for Lawrence’’s poor performance and you can start with coaching. A bad head coaching hire can always derail a quarterback’s performance, just ask Lawrence’s backup, Mac Jones.
Jones was up for Rookie of the Year in his first year in the league and led the New England Patriots to the playoffs, but a change at offensive coordinator — or in his case not hiring a new OC — all but shattered his confidence and ended his time in New England.
The ironic thing is a change of scenery might have been just what the doctor ordered as it seems the Jags played better with Jones under center than Lawrence (Jones’ 2024 QB+ grade: 69.2, D+). Although they didn’t win much, they seem to be more competitive under Jones.
Another factor is injury. Lawrence has missed eight of his last 19 games, including this season. In his career, He has suffered a concussion, an ankle sprain, and a shoulder sprain.
But next year may be a crossroads situation for Lawrence’’s career despite his large contract, and if he doesn’t step up, he might find fighting for a job sooner than initially expected.