As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy football values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Evan Hull.
Evan Hull’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Looking purely at Hull’s prospect profile, you would think he’d have been drafted higher. The Colts drafted Hull at the very end of the fifth round with a compensatory selection. It goes without saying the draft capital is not particularly good.
Day 3 running backs rarely pan out. The ones that do are typically fourth-round picks. While it’s better than being undrafted, later Day 3 draft capital does not bode well for Hull’s potential as a fantasy factor.
At the same time, Hull was immensely productive at Northwestern. In 35 games, he finished his college career with 488 carries for 2,417 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. He also hauled in 94 receptions for 851 yards and four touchdowns through the air. It’s the receiving profile that makes him intriguing.
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In his senior season, Hull saw a 17.3% target share. He caught 55 passes in 12 games. Per JJ Zachariason, Hull’s 20% best-season reception share is right up there with Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, and James White. Those are three of the best receiving backs over the past decade.
Based on what Hull did in college, we can confidently say that he has the skills to succeed as a receiving back at the NFL level. He also has an elite athletic profile, with 80th percentile burst, speed, and agility. And with his size, Hull actually has three-down back upside in an absolutely unlikely-to-happen best-case scenario.
Now, for the bad news. Hull’s landing spot couldn’t have been much worse. In addition to having poor draft capital, Hull landed on a team with an elite established running back in Jonathan Taylor. To make matters worse, the Colts drafted Anthony Richardson, a mobile quarterback more likely to take off than check down to his running back.
Evan Hull’s Fantasy Ranking
With an entirely new coaching staff, reading into what happened last year with this team’s backfield is unhelpful. The only thing we can say for sure is Taylor will be the lead back.
How much will the new staff like Zack Moss and Deon Jackson? It’s too early to tell. Hull is just as likely to be purely a special teamer or a healthy inactive as the team’s RB4 as he is to beat out Moss and Jackson and secure the team’s primary satellite role vacated when the Colts traded away Nyheim Hines.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings
Hull is currently the 4.03 in our latest dynasty rookie rankings. Fourth-round dynasty rookie picks rarely pan out, but you will be hard-pressed to find a running back more worth taking a shot on in the fourth round than Hull.
The Colts dealt with a bevy of running back injuries last year. In the latter rounds of rookie drafts and dynasty startup drafts, you just want to take shots on talent profiles that could potentially produce if they stumble into opportunity. Hull fits the bill.