Evan Engram was one of the best values at the TE position last season. Now with a more expensive price tag, is Engram worth selection in fantasy football drafts? What does his projection suggest?
Evan Engram’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.5
- Receptions: 96
- Receiving Yards: 885
- Receiving TDs: 4.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Engram This Year?
It’s difficult to know what to make of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Engram has always been a good receiver, but it’s fair to say no one saw his massive role coming. He commanded a career-high 23.8% target share last season (second in the league) and was targeted on 23.7% of his routes run.
Most importantly, though, Engram led all tight ends in snaps from the slot. It’s great for NFL teams when elite TEs like George Kittle can block, but fantasy managers would much prefer tight ends be awful at blocking so all they do is run routes.
With that said, the Jaguars’ offense will not be the same this season. Calvin Ridley was incredibly underwhelming last season. He’s now gone, along with Zay Jones, who earned 64 targets in nine games last season. Replacing him are rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and former Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis.
There’s no clear alpha in Jacksonville’s passing game right now. That leaves the door open for it to be Engram again. However, it just as easily could be Christian Kirk or Thomas.
I have chosen not to downgrade Engram’s volume too much, projecting him for a 21% target share. That gives him 95 receptions for 900 yards and 5.1 touchdowns, which comes out to 12.66 fantasy points per game, the TE7 in my projections. There is very little separating the TE5 from the TE9, too.
I have Engram as my TE8, which is also his ADP. Based on that, Engram may appear to be a slight value. My concern with drafting him is he’s just two years removed from averaging 10.4 ppg, which I believe represents his floor.
At the same time, I do believe we saw Engram’s ceiling last season. It’s difficult to envision him topping not only 143 targets but reeling in a whopping 114 of them for a 79.7% catch rate.
Where Engram is going amongst tight ends is perfectly fine, and I would gladly draft him there. However, his overall ADP is a couple of rounds higher than I’d prefer. That’s especially so when David Njoku is available nearly three rounds later.
Is Engram better than the tight ends behind him? Yes. Is he worth passing up on the running backs and wide receivers available to take him? That’s where I think the answer is no.
Tight ends need to get to 14 ppg to really move the needle. Being top five isn’t enough if it’s just a product of the entire position being weak. I struggle to see a path there for Engram. As a result, I’m only taking him in fantasy drafts if he’s a clear value.
