One of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram projects to be a late-round pick once again, as his 2022 fantasy outlook suggests while there could be an upside, we’ve learned not to assume anything with him. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Engram’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be valuable at his current ADP?
Evan Engram’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Just because a team will struggle on the field does not mean fantasy football managers should abandon drafting any of their players. Sure, the Jacksonville Jaguars could have the No. 1 pick again next year, but believe it or not, they have a sneaky talented offense, including recently acquired tight end Evan Engram.
After signing with the team on a one-year, fully guaranteed $9 million contract, Engram hopes to live up to the lofty expectations placed on him for the last five seasons.
To say it has been both an up-and-down and disappointing career thus far from Engram, compared to expectations, would be fair. He came into the league on fire as a rookie, catching 64 of his 115 targets for 722 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, that was also his best year in the NFL. Marred by inefficiencies, both by himself and the Giants’ offense, inexplicable drops and injuries have left a sour taste in fantasy managers’ mouths.
Even when he had a good year, it wasn’t great. And the only season in which he played an entire slate (2020), Engram had the fourth-most targets (109), the fifth-most receptions (63), and the eighth-most receiving yards (654) of any NFL tight end. Yet, he averaged only 8.8 PPR points because he had just one TD all season long.
Even last season was another example of Engram failing to live up to expectations and being held down by the quality of the offense. Engram was top 15 in route participation (68%) and had virtually no competition for targets considering injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard. And yet, Engram had an abysmal 14% target rate when running a route.
I am hesitant to crown Engram the breakout tight end that many want him to be. I do believe this offense will be more conducive to TE production. Going back to his days in Philadelphia, Doug Pederson has run 12 personnel more than anyone else in the league, meaning Engram will have his chances. Based on what we’ve seen in the preseason, there is reason to be excited about how this offense could look under an actually competent coach.
Still, similar to 2020, if the touchdowns don’t come, Engram’s upside will always be capped. If you want to take a late-round flyer on Engram, go ahead. But if he fails to produce in the opening weeks, I would be quick to drop him off your roster in favor of someone who is ascending and could be a valuable asset.
How the Jaguars’ depth chart impacts Evan Engram’s fantasy projection for the season
Not only does Engram face his own issues, but he’s also got one on his depth chart. Because truth be told, I actually don’t think he’s the tight end that I want to roster this season.
If you’re drafting a TE for fantasy, you need efficiency, because they’re not going to see the same amount of volume wide receivers will. Out of curiosity, does ranking seventh in targets per snap and top 10 in yards per route run/target seem efficient? If so, know those numbers belong to Dan Arnold.
What about yards after the catch/reception? We need a tight end to generate after the catch, given the relatively low aDOT. How does 27th and 41st sound? That’s not great. It’s also Engram over the last two years. For comparison, Arnold was 19th and 24th.
Arnold is the more efficient TE on the roster per touch. He’s also not getting enough credit for last year’s season. After the trade which sent him to Jacksonville, from Weeks 5 through 10, Arnold had 25 receptions on 38 targets for 286 yards. That’s a per-game average of 7.6 targets, five receptions, and 57.2 yards. Over this time, Arnold was fifth in targets, sixth in yards, and fifth in yards despite having his bye week fall during this period.
Arnold did sustain a Grade 2 MCL sprain which placed him on the IR and ended his season. If not for that happening, we can only wonder what his season could have been. That is also adding to his suppressed ADP, along with the team signing Engram.
I know the topic of “money talks” is thrown around. Yes, Engram is making more than Arnold at $9 million to $2.5 million. But in a scheme that will feature both on the field, I feel it is less of an issue, similar to what Philadelphia had in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Engram’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 169, Engram is coming off the boards as the TE20 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him around the beginning of the 15th round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Engram is the TE23 and 177th overall ranked player. Similar to PFN’s consensus, I have Engram as my TE20 and 167th overall player in my rankings. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Here is how I would approach this. If you want a shot at a Jaguars’ tight end, draft Engram. Yeah, I know I said I prefer Arnold, and from an efficiency standpoint, I do. Plus, he can actually catch, which is a requirement of their job.
Now, if you draft Engram, he’s not a starter due to where he’s going. But if he is the bonafide TE1, stick with him. But the minute you see Engram underperforming, or there’s a change in the priority list, drop him for Arnold, who is going undrafted. You end up with two dart throws to hit the board rather than taking the gamble.
Engram is outside what I feel is the draftable range at TE. Still, if you want to take an upside pick to pair with someone like Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, or Dawson Knox, and have enough bench spots, I understand drafting Engram to see if he finally gets it all put together in what should be the most TE-friendly offense of his career.