With the 2023 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, fantasy football managers — particularly those in dynasty leagues — are trying to size up rookie values. The New York Giants used their fourth pick of the draft to secure RB Eric Gray in the fifth round. What might dynasty managers expect from him?
Eric Gray’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Saquon Barkley has had three phases to his NFL career. The first began as a rookie in 2018, when he collected 2,028 total yards as a mere 21-year-old. That earned him AP Offensive Player of the Year. He followed that up with comparable per-game numbers in 2019 while missing three contests.
That set the stage for the second phase of his career, in which injuries limited him to 15 games across the next two seasons. Even when he did play, Barkley often looked pedestrian, averaging below 3.5 yards per carry. Even teammates Devontae Booker and Elijhaa Penny ran better.
The third phase began last season, when a triumphant Barkley returned to dominance while helping lead his team to an unlikely playoff berth.
This sets the stage for Eric Gray, who will begin training camp battling the likes of Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell for the all-important RB handcuff role. In fantasy, handcuffs are always important. But the Giants’ situation is somewhat unique because Barkley isn’t your normal starter.
The Giants refused to sign him to a long-term extension because they don’t trust Barkley to consistently replicate last year’s rebound. He remains a higher-than-normal injury risk, and despite being only 26 years old, he’s clearly not an integral part of this franchise’s long-term thinking — at least not at a price Barkley believes he deserves.
With the two sides reportedly at an impasse, and with Barkley’s durability (deservedly or not) an important fantasy topic, whichever running back wins the handcuff job could become a top-20 RB overnight.
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Like some other late-round picks, Gray will be a relatively old rookie, turning 24 in November. Presumably, that scared off some teams seeking a four- or five-year investment in a perpetually pre-prime or prime back. Gray might not land his first big payday until the offseason before his age-29 campaign.
So it’s safe to say that most of his fantasy impact will be felt in these first four to five seasons in New York. And with Barkley looking like a one-year rental at most, this backfield could open up significantly for Gray in 2024.
Or sooner? Possibly. If Barkley and the team don’t work out their contract dispute, Barkley could hold out, in which case Gray could work his way into a weekly 1A role ahead of Breida and/or Brightwell.
And even if Barkley returns to the fold for his fifth NFL season, his stats last year weren’t necessarily as incredible as they appear. Yes, he practically carried New York’s offense for stretches, especially during the first seven weeks, as the Giants jumped out to a 6-1 record. But he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry in his next six games, during which the Giants went 1-4-1.
As Barkley goes, so goes his team? Last season, the answer was mostly “yes.”
And he averaged a career-low 5.9 yards per reception while amassing the second-worst broken-tackle rate of his career on the ground. He averaged only 1.9 yards after contact, compared to 2.8 in each of his first two campaigns.
Barkley was brilliant, and at times he looked all too human. Even if he’s a full go this season, the team might decide that another 300-carry effort won’t help them or him — reducing his load to, say, Aaron Jones levels might keep him fresher and more productive.
What does this mean for Gray? Possibly standalone value as a true 1B, netting 8-10 touches per game if things break right. This one-two punch might serve the Giants well, and it would help the team to determine if they want the talented Gray to lead this backfield in 2024 and possibly beyond.
As with all RBs — particularly those drafted on Day 3 — there are major risks surrounding Gray. It comes with the territory. And … he happens to have landed in one of the best possible spots for optimizing fantasy value.
Eric Gray’s Fantasy Ranking
PFN’s Tommy Garrett ranks Gray No. 36 in his rookie dynasty mock draft, sandwiched between Jets RB Israel Abanikanda and Colts RB Evan Hull. As we know, rankings are largely subjective, because they hinge not only on objective truths about players but also perceptions of how they’ll be utilized, as well as personal fantasy preferences.
For example, you might be the kind of manager who loads up on 1B running backs (“complementary” RBs like AJ Dillon) and RB handcuffs, knowing that you can get massive upside at relatively little expense.
Or you might be a best-in-class manager who targets elite positional-skill players whenever possible, followed by filling positional gaps. Why take a running back who gets you 6-8 points when you can snag a wide receiver who averages 8-10?
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I fall into the former camp, which means I’m normally biased toward guys like Gray, especially on a team with no other obvious backup and with a higher-than-normal injury risk atop the depth chart.
Gray played great at Tennessee and then dominated at Oklahoma. He caught 99 passes in college and showed the rushing skills that should translate well in the NFL. While Breida has experience and Brightwell has looked solid on limited reps, Gray has the highest ceiling.
Given his talent level, his potential to contribute on offense as a rookie, and his potential as a starter beginning next year, Gray is one of my favorite Day 3 draft picks from a fantasy perspective. I’d target him with a top-25 pick in rookie dynasty drafts.