Cleveland Browns WR Elijah Moore was a second-round pick in 2021 and has yet to find his footing as a reliable fantasy football option. Moore’s had his moments, but the lack of upside has doomed him as a part of run-centric offenses through his first three seasons.
That said, we saw the Browns open up their offense down the stretch last season, and all of their offseason moves would indicate that more of the same is on tap for 2024. Could Moore be the type of PPR post-hype sleeper who helps managers navigate injuries/bye weeks, thus making him a valuable stash at essentially no cost?
Elijah Moore’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 126 (79 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 47
- Receiving Yards: 554
- Receiving TDs: 3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Moore This Year?
Projecting Cleveland’s offense is an inexact science. Their pass rate over expectation took off late last season, but that came with Joe Flacco under center and Nick Chubb sidelined.
The hope is that, for the majority of this season at least, that neither of those things is true.
the accuracy + the toe tap = perfection 🤌@deshaunwatson » @e_moore03 pic.twitter.com/JC9uOU8sov
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) June 6, 2023
Deshaun Watson is a gifted player, but what he brings to the table is drastically different than the pocket-locked Flacco. Watson has struggled to stay on the field over the past three seasons (12 games played), and in those games, he’s struggled to hit the broad side of a barn (59.8% completion rate after completing 70.2% of his attempts in his final season with the Houston Texans).
If you’re interested in Moore’s post-hype season, you’re going to need to buy a bounce back. In consecutive seasons, over 45% of his routes have come from the slot, a spot he can succeed in and provide PPR value.
Not only do you need Watson’s accuracy to tick back up, but you also need Moore to assume this role. Jerry Jeudy was added from the Denver Broncos this offseason, and he’s been in the slot for 56.6% of his routes over the past two seasons.
I’ll pass.
READ MORE: Fantasy Football WR Sleepers 2024
Instead, give me a similar player in Greg Dortch who plays on an offense I have more confidence in and has less slot target competition. Dortch is a slightly better version of the Moore profile for me, but if you want to pivot off of a floor play, the number of options grow.
Jalen McMillan and Tre Tucker are two receivers with far greater per-target upside and some contingent value. Both play with a pair of receivers who will soak up over 40% of the targets, but there is contingent value at play should an injury occur.
Those are the darts I prefer to throw at the end of fantasy drafts. Moore’s ceiling isn’t all that high from a skill standpoint and, in my opinion, he’d need a Jeudy injury (15+ games in three of four seasons) to flash the elevated floor that comes in the best-case scenario.
Keep an eye on Moore’s usage with time. Maybe he emerges as “the guy” in the slot and that puts him on the waiver wire radar. That said, I’m happy to wait to invest as opposed to tying up a roster spot entering the season.
Jason Katz’s Analysis on Moore’s Fantasy Value
- Disappointing 2023 Season: Despite seeing over 100 targets, Moore’s production in 2023 was underwhelming, with just 59 catches for 640 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 7.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as WR61.
- Lack of Prioritization: Moore was not a focal point in the Browns’ offense, as evidenced by his 18.9% target rate per route run (62nd in the league) and 1.16 yards per route run (75th). His 6.2 yards per target ranked 88th, indicating inefficiency in his opportunities.
- Limited Upside: While Moore had a couple of games with 15.4 and 17.1 fantasy points, his overall inconsistency and lack of significant production make it hard to trust him moving forward. With Amari Cooper and David Njoku ahead of him in the target hierarchy, Moore’s role is likely diminished further.
- Quarterback Concerns: Deshaun Watson’s struggles last season add to the concerns, as it’s questionable whether he can support more than Cooper and Njoku as fantasy-relevant assets. This limits Moore’s potential even more.
- ADP Analysis: Moore is currently being drafted around WR114, meaning he’s not on most fantasy radars. While I have him slightly higher at WR85, he remains a fringe option unlikely to be drafted in standard leagues.
- Final Verdict: Drafting Moore is not advisable, given his low standing in the Browns’ offense and the lack of compelling reasons to expect a resurgence. He would only become relevant if multiple injuries occur to the Browns’ pass-catchers before the season starts.