As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Elijah Mitchell’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Mitchell wasn’t one of the first running backs drafted in 2021. He was the 10th. He wasn’t even the first Niner RB drafted. That would be Trey Sermon.
A year before Isiah Pacheco made waves as a seventh-rounder dynamo, Mitchell dominated as a sixth-round rookie who was expected to ride the pine for the season and likely longer.
Instead, starting RB Raheem Mostert was knocked out for the year four plays into Week 1. With Jeff Wilson Jr. out and Sermon scuffling, the backfield fell to Mitchell. Despite a constant barrage of injuries, he battled his way to a 207-963-5 rushing line and a 19-137-1 receiving line.
It wasn’t long before Mostert headed to Miami. San Francisco no longer needed him. This franchise had found its new starting RB.
Except it’s not always that simple. As great as Mitchell has played, durability concerns linger. Actually, “linger” doesn’t adequately convey this sentiment. Had Mitchell and Wilson tag-teamed through the first six games, the team might have started 4-2, or perhaps even 5-1 if they’d figured out how to break through against the seemingly inferior Falcons.
Instead, sitting on a 3-3 record, and with Kansas City coming to town, the Niners went all-in by trading for Christian McCaffrey. Wilson joined the Dolphins the following week, and Mitchell returned to a backfield that he no longer led.
To Mitchell’s credit, he played extraordinarily well alongside McCaffrey, racking up 183 rushing yards on 34 carries in his return. And yet, after only three games, he went to the sidelines again, missing the next five contests.
While it’s too soon to call this a trend, Mitchell’s fantasy value certainly remains up in the air. Paired with McCaffrey, he can be a weekly fringe fantasy starter with pop as a capable receiver if needed. It helps that he plays in a prolific offense that produces more scoring opportunities than the average team.
Still, his third season might be the most important of his young career. Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price loom. Mason averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry last season on 43 attempts. Davis-Price has room to grow as a 2022 third-round pick.
Mitchell must remain healthy to maintain steady work. Another extended absence could open the door for a more meaningful rest-of-season role for the capable Mason or potentially capable Davis-Price. The Niners also might play things conservatively with Mitchell, knowing they’ll need him for the playoffs.
Mitchell has played some of his worst football in the postseason. As a rookie, he mustered an anemic 55-169-1 rushing line in three postseason games, including an 11-20-0 line in a three-point loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Rams.
Last season didn’t go better, as he labored for 53 scoreless yards on 23 carries in San Francisco’s first two contests before a groin injury kept him out of the NFC title match.
In a realistic best-case scenario, he’ll get steady work operating behind McCaffrey — maybe 7-9 touches per week. And then, if there’s a slight hamstring tweak or groin pull, the 49ers will probably play it very safe, keeping him largely on ice until they pursue another playoff run in January.
Good news for the team. Bad news for fantasy managers hoping/expecting to utilize Mitchell in the fantasy playoffs. Essentially, be wary of his value even if he remains on the field. Based on his track record, he has little room for error (injury-wise) to remain active for long stretches.
Should You Draft Elijah Mitchell This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Mitchell with an ADP of RB41. It’s a sensible projection for a talented running back with a concerning injury history. If he somehow competes in 14+ games, then he should blow away his ADP. But “somehow” is the key here. Few No. 2 RBs are as risky as he is in fantasy.
That doesn’t make him avoidable. His ADP suggests draftabillity in the 10th or 11th round in 12-team leagues. He’ll probably net a handful of double-digit performances. Therefore, he’s not a bad get at that price.
And who knows? Maybe he’ll shake off the injury label and resume his impressive play as a constant 1B presence in an explosive offense.
But most realistically, the Niners won’t want him milking the clock in garbage time. There’s too much to lose. Mason and/or Davis-Price can handle that. So unlike some No. 2 RBs, Mitchell probably won’t benefit much from game flow. That makes his production tougher to predict.
If you like rolling the dice, then Mitchell is a bargain at his ADP. However, if you’d prefer to land a more assured top-35 option, there should be plenty of higher-probability RB producers available in double-digit rounds.
