San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell more than proved capable of being a starting running back after a superb rookie season. Unfortunately, he’s now stuck behind Christian McCaffrey. On a team that loves to run the ball, could there be enough work for Mitchell to have standalone value, though? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Elijah Mitchell’s Fantasy Outlook
The 49ers might just be the only team in the league that operates as a true meritocracy. If you’re the best player for the job, you will play, draft capital be damned.
We saw this play out in Mitchell’s rookie season, where he quickly and summarily dispatched the sub-replacement-level Trey Sermon for the 49ers’ starting running back role. All Mitchell did with that job was put together 11 games where he averaged 15.0 PPR fantasy points per game. He was the RB14 on the season.
Mitchell entered last season as the clear starter. Unfortunately, he got hurt again, and the 49ers opted to make a blockbuster move for McCaffrey in the middle of the season. Once Mitchell returned, he was obviously just a backup.
Here’s what we know for sure. Mitchell is one of the seldom few backups in the NFL we can be confident is the clear handcuff and is capable of producing at a high level if the starter were to go down.
Of course, he’s not giving us even 75% of McCaffrey’s production. But that’s because McCaffrey is one of the greatest fantasy running backs of all time. If Mitchell produced another 15 ppg as the starter, that would be just fine.
The sneaky part about Mitchell is there may be enough meat on the proverbial bone in San Francisco for him to be useful even with a healthy McCaffrey.
Last season, the 49ers used McCaffrey as a true workhorse when they had to, which was when Mitchell was hurt. When Mitchell was healthy, McCaffrey averaged 10.5 carries per game compared to 15.5 without him. It’s clear the 49ers still view Mitchell as an important piece of this backfield.
Injuries limited Mitchell to just five games last season. It’s certainly concerning that he has already missed 18 of a possible 34 regular-season games in his young career. But being the Robin to McCaffrey’s Batman would keep Mitchell’s workload lighter and perhaps keep him on the field.
Mitchell did average a respectable 9.9 ppg in his four games with McCaffrey last season. Those are just about RB3 numbers, which are good enough to justify a spot in fantasy lineups in deeper leagues or to cover injuries and bye weeks.
In an ideal world, the 49ers would probably keep McCaffrey around 10-12 carries per game, along with 5-6 targets. On a 49ers offense with a 47% neutral-game-script-run rate, there may very well be 8-10 carries a game for Mitchell, too.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Mitchell at his ADP?
Mitchell currently has an RB41 ADP, No. 125 overall. I have him ranked at RB38.
With an RB4 price, Mitchell comes with no risk at all. He can be the fourth or fifth running back on your roster. Not only does he have a chance to be worthy of starting on his own, but he also has high-RB2 upside in the event of a McCaffrey injury.
It’s kind of funny how just last year, fantasy managers were terrified of taking McCaffrey because he was such an injury risk. Yet, now, McCaffrey’s handcuff, who we know is good at football, is being drafted as if McCaffrey is a lock to play the entire season.
Mitchell is one of my favorite late-round targets in 2023 fantasy drafts. He is the exact type of running back you should look for in the latter stages of drafts.