The postseason is finally here, and the sportsbooks have NFL betting odds up for the first round of the playoffs. After an initial review of the betting lines, we have made our early NFL Wild Card Round predictions for each of the six playoff games this weekend.
For Wild Card Weekend, the notable storylines are Mike McCarthy coaching against the Packers, Tyreek Hill making his return to Kansas City, Jared Goff facing his former team, and the Detroit Lions hosting their first playoff game in 30 years, which is against their former franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford.
With the playoff bracket set and betting lines posted for every game, let’s dive into our early NFL Wild Card Round predictions and picks against the spread.
Early NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Expert Picks
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Prediction
- Spread
Browns -1.5 - Moneyline
Browns -120, Texans +102 - Total
43.5
Bearman: The Texans have been a great story and have a great future ahead of them. But for this game, I am going with the better and stronger team here, even on the road.
The Browns, with Joe Flacco, have taken the offense to another level, with playmakers all over the field. They have one of the top defenses in football, one that should lead them to a deep playoff run. I’ll lay the points on the road here.
Pick: Browns -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Blewis: We’re only one game in, and we already have a heads-up play, as I like the home team in this one.
As impressive as this Browns defense has been, they have been an entirely different unit away from Cleveland, as they were the 31st-ranked unit in points per game allowed on the road this season. Their 29.4 points per game allowed on the road is more than double what they surrendered on average at home this season, which isn’t a great sign for a Wild Card team entering the postseason.
Meanwhile, they’re facing a QB in C.J. Stroud, who has been an entirely different quarterback in home games this season — going 6-2 and throwing for 310.8 yards per game, 17 TDs, and averaging 8.94 yards per attempt.
These teams played a couple of weeks ago in Houston, but Davis Mills was in for an injured Stroud, so you can pretty much toss that game out the window. I’m going to take Houston straight up.
Pick: Texans ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -3.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins +150, Chiefs -176 - Total
44.5
Blewis: This is a matchup of two high-powered offenses that each struggled, relative to expectations, to end the season. The Dolphins are hopeful they’ll get both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle back for this game, but this is still a unit that has struggled against playoff teams on the road (and Germany) this season, scoring an average of just 17.5 PPG.
I know the Dolphins are really banged up on defense, but this Chiefs offense, even with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, hasn’t been consistently explosive all season long. Maybe they can take advantage of a Miami team missing key defensive players, but my initial read in this matchup is to take the under.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Bearman: I can’t do it. As much as I would like to see the 23-year playoff drought come to an end, there are just too many injuries right now for this Dolphins team.
Their best shot at finally winning at least one playoff game would have been at home, not in really cold weather at the defending Super Bowl champions.
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While the Dolphins might get Mostert and Waddle back this week, they’re missing two key edge rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, which has certainly caught up to them. The Chiefs might not be playing great football right now, but they basically had a week off to rest and now get a banged-up Miami team they beat earlier this season.
Maybe I’m wrong, like I was Sunday night when I picked the Dolphins to beat the Bills.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
- Spread
Bills -9.5 - Moneyline
Steelers +385, Bills -500 - Total
39.5
Bearman: The biggest lesson I learned on Sunday night was that the Bills defense is much better than it was midseason. Josh Allen can make all of the mistakes in the world if the defense plays like it did against Miami, holding the Dolphins to 275 total yards, including under 100 yards in the second half.
The Steelers’ defense, which had the third-most takeaways this season, could keep Allen up late at night. The problem is, their offense isn’t very good, so I see this looking like a 23-14 type of game. Both teams were 11-6 to the under in the regular season.
Pick: Under 39.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: My initial reaction was to take the under as well, but then the total started to plummet after it opened at 43 points, so I’m going to go in a different direction with my pick in this game.
The Steelers ended the season on a three-game winning streak after they made Mason Rudolph their starting QB. But after facing the Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens’ backups, going against this Bills team in a road playoff game will be a major step up in class.
They should also be without their best player in T.J. Watt, who suffered an MCL sprain in Week 18. While he avoided a major injury, it appears unlikely he’ll be ready to go against the Bills.
The Bills have been a mixed bag as a heavy favorite this season — just 2-6 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown — but we know this team is capable of blowing out inferior opponents, and the Steelers could be the worst team in the postseason.
Pick: Bills -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -7 - Moneyline
Packers +280, Cowboys -350 - Total
48.5
Blewis: This Dallas Cowboys’ offense at home against a Joe Barry-led Green Bay Packers defense is almost as big of a mismatch as you can realistically get in the playoffs.
The Cowboys averaged over 37 points per game at home this season, which was the best in the NFL and three points more than the next closest team.
Almost any matchup is favorable for the Cowboys’ offense at home, but especially against the Packers, who were a bottom-five defense by DVOA and success rate this season. Worst of all, they even allowed the Panthers to score 30 points just a few weeks ago.
As impressive as Jordan Love has looked in the second half of this season, this Packers offense is really young and inexperienced, which doesn’t bode well against a Cowboys team that makes the playoffs almost every season.
Pick: Cowboys -7 (-115 at FanDuel)
Bearman: With all due respect to Love and the great season the Packers have had, the Cowboys are just better, especially at home.
Dallas was a perfect 8-0 at home this season, winning six of them by 20 or more. CeeDee Lamb might be the best wide receiver in the game, and that’s a tall list.
Dak Prescott has this team rolling at home, and I just don’t see the Packers keeping up.
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Green Bay deserves all the credit in the world for making it to the dance, but they won’t beat Dallas in Arlington, and it shouldn’t be fairly close.
Pick: Cowboys -7 (-115 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Rams +152, Lions -180 - Total
50.5
Blewis: Hard to find a better storyline in these Wild Card matchups than a revenge game for Jared Goff against his former team and Matthew Stafford making his return to Detroit for the first time since the trade.
The Lions have been a great story this season, winning the NFC North for the first time in franchise history (their last division title was when they played in the “NFC Central”), and they will be hosting their first playoff game since 1994. But I really like the Rams getting points here, and I was surprised to see this line open as high as Lions -5 at DraftKings (before it eventually dropped).
When the Rams’ offense is completely healthy, they have been one of the best units in the NFL this season, and they’ll be facing a Lions defense that was 26th in EPA/play after their bye in Week 9.
I’m not necessarily picking the Rams to win, but I don’t trust the Lions’ defense to make enough stops to prevent this from being a close game.
Pick: Rams +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bearman: I’ve been on the Rams all season and successfully cashed the over on their win total (5.5). Sean McVay won’t win Coach of the Year, but he deserves consideration for getting this Rams team to bounce back after a five-win season in 2022.
The Lions are one of the best teams in football, no doubt, but do you know what they don’t have? Playoff experience. Especially in comparison to the Rams.
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Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Aaron Donald should be able to keep the Rams in this one and potentially lead them to an outright upset.
Pick: Rams +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -2.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -152, Buccaneers +128 - Total
44.5
Bearman: Even three weeks ago, I would have never considered the Buccaneers here, and while I still don’t love it, I have lost complete faith in the Eagles.
We knew the Eagles’ 10-1 record was a little fishy based on seven of their wins being by one score, but really bothers me was their 1-5 finish down the stretch with the division on the line. They got blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys and had three unacceptable losses to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Giants.
As for Tampa Bay, I don’t think they’re very good, considering they’re in the postseason because they won the worst division in football, and they did lose at home to the Eagles earlier this season. But that was in Week 3, and the Bucs won five of their last six games to finish the season.
I don’t see either one of these teams beating the 49ers in the Divisional Round, but I will take the home underdog here.
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This Eagles team appears broken, so even with their stock being at an all-time low, I have zero faith in them — even in a matchup where, on paper, they should be favored by way more points.
Their defense is a complete disaster right now, and their offense is far from capable of carrying this team. Even after failing to score a touchdown against the lowly Carolina Panthers, this still sets up as a get-right spot for this Buccaneers offense.
Meanwhile on the other side of the ball for the Eagles, we have seen them struggle against the blitz all season long, especially against the Giants early on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, this Buccaneers defense blitzed at the third-highest rate in the regular season at 39.2%. Considering the Eagles’ lack of counters against the blitz, expect that number to be way higher on Monday night.
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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