Super Bowl 59 Early Preview: Breaking Down Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Based on PFN’s win probability model, which ran 10,000 simulations via the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Philadelphia Eagles have a 52.8% chance of defeating the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. Kansas City has won three of the last five Super Bowls and will be the first NFL team to play in five Super Bowls over a six-season span.

This is Philadelphia’s third Super Bowl appearance in the last eight seasons. The Eagles defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII and lost to the Chiefs two seasons ago in Super Bowl LVII.

Kansas City Chiefs Trends and Insights

• The Chiefs have 17 straight one-score wins (12-0 this season, their last three playoff games last year, and their last two regular season games). Twelve one-score wins is the most in a single season all-time, tied with the 2022 Vikings, 2019 Seahawks, and 2015 Broncos.
• Patrick Mahomes passed Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins by a starting quarterback (17) and John Elway for the second-most playoff game-winning drives by a quarterback (seven).
• From 2019-24, the Chiefs have made six Super Bowl appearances, are chasing a fourth title, and have won 78% of their regular season games. For reference, the Splash Brother Golden State Warriors (2015-19, 2022) made six NBA Finals appearances with four titles and won 76.2% of their regular season games.
• The Chiefs have averaged over 2.5 points per offensive drive in four straight games when playing their regulars – that’s a good formula, as NFL teams have won 78.9% of their games this season when clearing 2.50 PPD.
• During his career, Mahomes has averaged 3.9 carries for 20 yards and 0.13 touchdowns on the ground during the regular season. In the postseason, those rates elevated to 5.4 attempts, 29.1 yards, and 0.35 touchdowns per game.
• Since Week 5, Mahomes ranks second in pass attempts (511, even including the playoffs, Joe Burrow still has more). There are 33 QBs with more deep TD passes over that stretch (including Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones, and Michael Penix Jr.).

Philadelphia Eagles Trends and Insights

• The Eagles peaked early last season and scored 155 points over a five-game win streak (Weeks 7-12). Over their past five games, they’ve scored 166 points.
• Jalen Hurts ran for three scores in his prior Super Bowl experience, joining Terrell Davis as the only player to do that in The Big Game. With his three rushing scores on Sunday, Hurts joined LeGarrette Blount as the only players in NFL history with multiple playoff games in which they ran for three-plus touchdowns.
• Philadelphia has forced 19 turnovers in their past six games, a run that includes four games with three-plus.
• The Eagles became the sixth team to have multiple players rush for multiple scores in a playoff game, the first since Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel did it for the 2018 Patriots.
• Since 2022, the Eagles are 18-8 ATS (69.2%) when facing a team that enters play with at least as many wins as losses (second best, trailing only the 20-6-1 Lions).
• Hurts will become the eighth quarterback to start multiple Super Bowls within his first eight seasons. Of the previous seven, only Elway failed to secure a ring within his first five seasons—though Elway would famously cap off his career with Super Bowl victories in his final two seasons.
• There are similarities between the Eagles’ Super Bowl run in 2017 and this season. Both teams won it all after…
  – A 28-point win in November in Dallas
  – Falling behind on the first drive of a blowout Championship win
  – Going undefeated in October and November

Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are the 2nd pair of teammates ever to have 3 rushing TDs EACH in a game, regular season or playoffs. 🤯

The only other duo to accomplish this was Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock in Week 7 of the 2004 season for the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/UQqRQxRWjO

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 26, 2025

PFN’s Advanced Analytics Super Bowl Breakdown

With 20 games of data points at our disposal and the power of our custom metrics, we can offer a sharper perspective on how these teams stack up.

Our Offense+ metric incorporates timely data and success rates directly tied to winning outcomes, while Defense+ measures a team’s ability to limit opponents in high-leverage situations. Both metrics prioritize efficiency, drawing from a wide range of predictive statistics.

With that framework in place, here’s how the Chiefs vs. Eagles game looks through PFN’s advanced analytics lens. Let’s look at how the Chiefs’ offense matches up with the Eagles’ defense and vice versa:

Eagles’ Advanced Analytics

• Offense+ Season Rank: 14
• Defense+ Season Rank: 2
• Special Teams+ Season Rank: 29
• Strength of Schedule Season Rank: 31

Chiefs’ Advanced Analytics

• Offense+ Season Rank: 12
• Defense+ Season Rank: 14
• Special Teams+ Season Rank: 19
• Strength of Schedule Season Rank: 26

Chiefs Are First Team to Play 5 Super Bowls in 6 Seasons

Looking at the other major men’s North American sports leagues, the Chiefs have joined an exclusive club of franchises to play for five titles in six seasons:

• MLB: New York Yankees
• NBA: Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors
• NHL: Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Islanders, Edmonton Oilers

Patrick Mahomes Seeking Another Exclusive Club

There’s very little Mahomes hasn’t achieved, and he accomplishes it faster than just about anyone.

With a win against the Eagles, Mahomes can become only the third player in NFL history to win multiple MVPs and four championships, joining Tom Brady and Joe Montana.

Montana didn’t reach that milestone until his 12th season, while Brady achieved it in his 15th. Mahomes would achieve this feat in just his eighth season.

Expanding this to all the major men’s North American sports leagues, Mahomes would become the 19th player overall to reach this milestone. Here’s the breakdown by league:

• NFL (2): Tom Brady and Joe Montana
• NBA (7): Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Stephen Curry, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell
• MLB (4): Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle
• NHL (5): Jean Béliveau, Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, Guy LaFleur, Mark Messier

Mahomes would be only the sixth to do this in fewer than 10 seasons, and everyone else who did this accomplished it more than 40 years ago.

Can Saquon Snap Rushing Champion Drought?

Saquon Barkley led the NFL in rushing this season, becoming just the ninth player in league history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards. However, such individual success hasn’t often translated to postseason glory.

No rushing champion has played for a Super Bowl-winning team since Terrell Davis in 1998—a drought spanning 25 seasons. In that time, only Christian McCaffrey (last season) and Shaun Alexander (2005) have even reached the Super Bowl.

For most rushing champions, the playoffs have ended early, with a Wild Card round exit being the most common outcome.

Barkley has accounted for 40.2% of the Eagles’ scrimmage yards entering the Super Bowl. Barkley is the fourth player this century to account for at least 40% of his team’s scrimmage yards heading into the Super Bowl.

Overall, he’s just the 16th player to achieve this in the Super Bowl era and the sixth to do so in the last 40 seasons.

Historically, teams that rely heavily on one player to carry the offense haven’t shown a particularly strong trend in the Super Bowl, either positively or negatively. Teams entering the Super Bowl with a player accounting for at least 40% of their scrimmage yards in the playoffs have a 6-9 record in the big game.