The Super Bowl is set, and it will be a repeat of two years ago as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans. The last meeting was an exciting contest that went right down to the final seconds, and all indications are that this game could be equally as tight.
The sportsbooks surprised a few people when they opened the line with Kansas City as the slight favorites. However, it’s understandable, given that the Chiefs are back-to-back Super Bowl champions and have proven themselves capable of winning these tight matchups time and time again.
While we have a full two weeks to break down all the different matchups and analyze each 1-on-1 individually, in this article, we’ll examine the tale of the tape according to the Pro Football Network metrics. Once we break down the different elements, we will give our early betting pick and prediction for Super Bowl 59.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Moneyline: Chiefs -125; Eagles +105
- Total: 49.5
The sportsbooks installed the Chiefs as immediate favorites with odds of -125, which haven’t moved much, if at all, since the game against the Buffalo Bills finished. That is an implied win probability of 55.6% for Kansas City, which is somewhat surprising, but the numbers have this game close enough that it’s hard to argue with whichever side the sportsbooks favored.
From an overall perspective, our PR+ metric has the Eagles as the better team, but only slightly. Both teams rank inside our top five, and there is just 1.1 percentage point between them in our system.
Therefore, barring some kind of meltdown, it’s unlikely we will see a one-sided affair. This game will come down to how the different coaching staffs scheme up their plays and how the players execute them.
Diving into the overall matchups, the battle between the Eagles’ offense and the Chiefs’ defense looks to be extremely even on paper, with both units sitting 14th in their respective rankings.
Philadelphia’s offense is somewhat of a throwback unit. In a time when passing games dominate, the Eagles have controlled games on the ground, with explosive runs from both running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles enter the Super Bowl with an impressive 0.1 EPA per rush (first) and a 42% success rate on run plays (eighth). The Chiefs’ relative strength on defense in terms of statistics is against the run, but those numbers are very much league average. Kansas City finished with a 17th-ranked defense in run success rate (61.3%) and a 13th-ranked defense in EPA per rush (0.07).
We saw the Chiefs’ frailties against the run show up at times against Buffalo, with James Cook ripping off some big plays in the second half. However, we also saw them look stout in short-yardage situations, which will be critical against the Eagles’ “Tush Push.”
A slight unknown for the Eagles is the health of Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson, but hopefully, two weeks of rest can have them healthy and raring to go.
Philadelphia’s passing offense has been somewhat hit or miss this season. They finished ninth in EPA per dropback (0.12) and 13th in success rate (46.2%) — and there were definitely some frailties there.
Hurts finished fourth overall in our QB+ rankings this season. He was excellent from a clean pocket, on third down, and in clutch situations, yet finished 26th in EPA per dropback when pressured (-0.42).
The Chiefs have one of the more creative defensive coordinators in Steve Spagnuolo, so they will surely look to take advantage of Hurts’ issues when pressured. They also have good options in their defensive backfield, but we saw that they can be vulnerable down the field in the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs and Spagnuolo will need to “pick their poison,” so to speak. Hurts and the passing game are more than capable of making plays when needed, but consistency has sometimes been an issue on that front. Equally, the pressure element in the passing game is a dangerous one for Kansas City, with Philadelphia having dynamic playmakers that can make them pay if Hurts gets the ball out quickly to beat the pressure.
The matchup when the Chiefs are on offense looks one-sided. The Eagles’ defense ranks second, while KC’s offense ranks 14th. Philadelphia’s defense has excellent numbers against both the run and the pass — ranked first in EPA per rush (0.16) and sixth in rush success rate (63.7%). The defense is also first in pass success rate (59.9%) and third in EPA per dropback (0.02).
The Chiefs’ offense has evolved throughout the year. They appeared to be a run-dominated team earlier on, but they head into the Super Bowl ranked better in the passing game. Hollywood Brown’s return has added an extra dimension by giving them an extra dynamic weapon that teams have to account for.
Kansas City finished the year ranked fifth in pass success rate (49.6%) and eighth in EPA per dropback (0.13). The run game ranks just outside the top 10 at this point but is still more than good enough, especially with Patrick Mahomes willing to use his legs more in the playoffs than he did so in the regular season.
We’ve seen in the last two weeks how dangerous Mahomes can be if he gets outside the pocket. Philly’s defensive line will have to show incredible pass-rush integrity to keep him contained, or they will have to use one of their linebackers to spy Mahomes.
At times, the Eagles looked vulnerable against Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels when he ran, so they’ll need to work on that heading into New Orleans.
The Chiefs’ offensive line will be key. Overall, it has ranked in the top five this season, but there is a major concern at left tackle, which has caused an issue at left guard. The Eagles’ defensive line is dominant up the middle, so it will be intriguing to see if KC moves Joe Thuney back inside or leave Mike Caliendo at guard with Thuney at LT.
This is the Chiefs’ pick-your-poison decision. They seem to like having Thuney at left tackle over D.J. Humphries, but that leaves Caliendo dealing with the likes of Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, and Jordan Davis. Philadelphia will almost certainly try and exploit either Caliendo or Humphries, so Kansas City has to decide which it feels is the least dangerous option.
This Chiefs offense was much improved against the Bills in the red zone. They scored four touchdowns inside the red zone, compared to just one field goal. That is contrary to their 53.9% red-zone touchdown rate this season. Now, they face an Eagles defense that ranks fifth in the league in restricting touchdowns inside the red zone (48.3%).
A final element that should not be forgotten is special teams. The Chiefs have an advantage on that front, with a 0.07 EPA per game compared to -1.31 for the Eagles.
Philly’s Jake Elliott only made 77.8% of his field-goal attempts in the regular season and really struggled from over 50 yards, going 1 for 7. He is 6 for 7 in the playoffs, with his only miss coming in the NFC Championship Game from 54 yards out.
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has been far from perfect, with an 84% conversion rate and three misses from five attempts over 50 yards. He is 4 for 4 in the playoffs but hasn’t had an attempt from over 50 yards.
All the metrics indicate this game should be close. However, our overall numbers have this game leaning in favor of the Eagles. The problem is that the Chiefs have the coaching advantage, and it’s hard to pick against Mahomes in big moments.
This is a true 50-50 game, so there are a few ways we can attack it. The numbers say the Eagles should be favored, so the lean is to their moneyline, especially getting plus odds. You can also tease Philadelphia up to +7.5, which is a nice cushion against a Chiefs team that has won 12 games by seven points or less.
To tease that line you need a partner for it, which brings us to the total. At 49.5, it feels on the high side, but this game certainly has the potential to get out of control. Therefore, the play here is to tease the total down to 43.5. It leaves you vulnerable to a 20-17 or 23-20 type game, but this one has the feeling of getting loose in the second half.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 24
Pick: Eagles +7.5 and over 43.5; Lean Eagles ML
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Jan. 27 at 6:15 a.m. ET. Data is courtesy of TruMedia.
