Heading into Monday night’s games, we’ve gone 7-7 in moneyline bets and 7-6-1 in bets against the spread in Week 2. The more we see, the easier it is to predict future outcomes (or so we hope).
With that in mind, here’s an early look at our NFL Week 3 predictions and picks for all 16 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 picks and predictions
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting sub-plots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed, including two major questions surrounding each team’s execution of its offense.
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 22
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
How confident can we be about either team? Cleveland’s passing attack remains one-dimensional, and their defense hasn’t yet been tested by a top-12 offense (and hasn’t looked great regardless). Pittsburgh is one great QB away from making a run at the AFC North title, and I’m not confident Mitch Trubisky will remain the starter by midseason.
Here’s what we do know — as long as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are dominating touches, the Browns have a chance. For the Steelers, it largely comes down to getting their running game going, which should take much-needed pressure off the passing game. Easier said than done. I think this game will be close and am willing to give the home team the benefit of the doubt.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Browns
Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Houston has played about as well as most people could have expected, tying the Colts while losing a close one to Denver. However, Chicago brings an element they haven’t faced — a mobile quarterback. But what, didn’t they face Russell Wilson in Week 2? Wilson ran for only three yards on Sunday, and by my standards, he is no longer a mobile quarterback.
Chicago still hasn’t gotten Darnell Mooney or Cole Kmet involved in the offense. That should change in this favorable matchup. Justin Fields should find more open passing lines than what he saw in a dreary performance against Green Bay. I’m expecting him to play unquestionably his best game of the year.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
When is an 0-2 team a favorite while playing on the road against the preseason favorite to win its division? Um, now apparently. The Raiders have lost two heartbreakers despite having (on paper) one of the NFL’s top passing attacks. It could be argued that when Mack Hollins is their leading receiver while Davante Adams collects only 12 yards on two catches, something isn’t working right.
Meanwhile, the Titans have their own issues, including a longtime elite RB who might not be elite anymore and a receiving corps whose top two weapons are still (possibly) showing the effects of last year’s season-ending injuries. Tennessee would be in more trouble if Indianapolis weren’t flailing. But confronting a brutal midseason schedule (Colts twice, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Eagles), we might see the start of the Malik Willis era by Thanksgiving.
Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Speaking of the Colts, they’re on their fourth quarterback in four years since Andrew Luck retired. Despite the preseason hype, Matt Ryan simply looks post-prime. Losing Michael Pittman last week didn’t help. But he made enough errant throws to prompt many-a-middle-aged parent to scream “I could do better than that” at their TV.
Whether or not Ryan is better than your Aunt Betty or Uncle Steve (hint: he is), the Colts’ only realistic path to victory is to pound the ball on the ground that’s shown mixed results so far defending against the run. Jonathan Taylor remains elite; he just needs help.
Oh, and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. I underestimated them this summer, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire has looked terrific, and the passing attack hasn’t slowed despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and yes, even Demarcus Robinson. Kansas City will rack up points. The question is what adjustments Indy will make to keep pace.
Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Miami Dolphins (+4.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Miami’s comeback against Baltimore was one for the ages. So was Buffalo’s stomping of the Rams on the road. If it were Week 15, this might be a battle for the AFC East division. Instead, it’s a huge test for a Miami squad that has to believe they’re good enough to compete against anyone.
I’m still not entirely convinced they can handle the Bills. Maybe I’m propping up the defending AFC East champs a little too much. But it seems deserved, doesn’t it? They have no obvious weaknesses. Betting against the Bills means going against the grain in a huge way. I’m not ready to go there.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Bills
Detroit Lions (+7) at Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As some of you know, I pushed Jared Goff this summer as the biggest QB bargain in fantasy, as his preseason QB27 ADP was, bluntly stated, ridiculous. A healthy Lions offense, combined with the addition of D.J. Chark (and eventually Jameson Williams), bring out the best in the NFL’s former No. 1 overall draft pick. Oh, and D’Andre Swift is elite when healthy, so that certainly helps.
But can they slow down teams on defense? We don’t yet know. Their path to relevance hinges on improvements when they don’t have the ball. We’ve seen glimmers. Against Minnesota, we need to see more, starting with slowing Justin Jefferson. I think Detroit will keep pace, culminating in yet another disappointing moral victory.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots earned a nice road victory against the Steelers. But don’t let that fool you. New England’s passing game remains a work in progress, and their defense stopping Trubisky and an underperforming Najee Harris is not the same as slowing Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman.
The possible return of J.K. Dobbins could mean the difference between a narrow Baltimore victory and a 10-point edge. While I don’t want to overstate Dobbins’ impact, especially in his first few weeks back, the existing RB corps simply isn’t getting it done.
Remember when Mike Davis was the handcuff? Neither he nor Kenyan Drake nor Justice Hill can adequately pressure defenses. Dobbins is the missing piece to this playoff-bound puzzle.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If you believed over the summer that the Joe Flacco-led Jets would be 1-1 while the Bengals would be 0-2, congratulations on your wizard-like abilities. No doubt, Cincinnati’s feeling the heat with the Dolphins, Ravens, and Saints up next.
Factor in later matchups versus the Chiefs, Bucs, Patriots, and Bills, and we have to wonder if this team’s situation is more dire than their 0-2 record suggests.
I believe in coaching adjustments, and I believe talent often wins in the end. While New York should be able to score 20+ against the Bengals’ beatable D, Cincinnati should operate more efficiently against New York than they did against better defenses (Pittsburgh and Dallas) earlier this season. Expect blow-up performances from Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins with (no exaggeration) their season on the line.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Washington Commanders (+4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1:00 p.m. ET
I’ve long believed that the Vikings’ inability to get over the playoff hump has been due, in part, to not having a strong No. 3 receiver. This isn’t true for all franchises. But sometimes, teams lacking a reliable No. 3 option are more easily contained by the league’s top defenses. Each of the past six Super Bowl winners has had a relatively strong No. 3 receiver, whether at WR or TE.
This game features two teams with three strong receivers each. Washington’s situation is more surprising, as rookie Jahan Dotson and comeback-player-of-the-year contender Curtis Samuel are far exceeding expectations.
It’s a fascinating situation for a franchise with an opening to compete in the NFC East, and it could be enough to keep the Commanders surprisingly competitive against the Eagles — a team capable of making a deep playoff run.
Against-the-spread prediction: Commanders
Moneyline winner: Eagles
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Let’s keep this simple. New Orleans has an elite defense. Carolina has one of the league’s top RBs. Jameis Winston’s health should be the deciding factor in a contest the Panthers must win to keep scant playoff hopes alive. After all, they’ll next face the Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, and Bucs.
As long as the Saints can keep pace, they should ultimately prevail against a beatable Baker Mayfield, who’s been merely adequate despite battling the Browns and Giants. The Saints pose an entirely different test, and Mayfield will have his work cut out for him.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
We’ll assume Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen will return. If he doesn’t, we’ll re-examine the spread later this week. For now, the Chargers have a better team on paper on offense and on defense. Coming off a close loss to the Chiefs, they should be able to handle the rebuilding (and objectively improved) Jaguars.
Not that Jacksonville will roll over. Their backfield looks terrific, and Christian Kirk somehow has been worth every penny. Watching this team, I keep thinking they’re one great WR away from being truly dangerous.
Trevor Lawrence will be one of the game’s top QBs someday. For now, we might anticipate a competitive affair, with Austin Ekeler and Herbert putting on a clinic when it matters most.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Arizona Cardinals (+4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
If not for their miraculous comeback victory over the Raiders, Arizona would be in a lot of trouble. As it stands, they’re good enough to beat L.A., although questions surrounding their backfield are warranted. If James Conner sits, can Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin carry the load? Assuredly, yes.
Their defense is another issue. How can they stop the Cooper Kupp and the Rams’ ramped-up running game? Their hope lies with Matthew Stafford, who has looked far more human than usual, including almost throwing away an easy win against Atlanta. If the Cardinals can execute more effectively (and earlier in the game) on offense, then surely they make this a ballgame.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Admittedly, it doesn’t bring me joy to bet on this game, featuring two teams that are trying to establish legitimacy against steep odds. Seattle’s running game and quarterback situation remain murky. The same goes for Atlanta. There are so many talented players are both teams whose potentials are not close to being realized.
I feel more comfortable betting on the home team in this one. The Seahawks get a slight reprieve after a tough early schedule against Denver and San Francisco. They should move to 2-1 before a huge showdown next week in Detroit determines whether they’re middling or a team to reckon with.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
It’s risky to bet on a team with so many injuries (and a Mike Evans suspension). But Tampa Bay isn’t like most teams. I’m comfortable picking them to win by at least a field goal, assuming they’ve probably already faced the toughest defense (New Orleans) they’re going to face all year.
Green Bay clearly has lost a step since Davante Adams departed this offseason. But their running game looks as strong as ever. They’ll need to execute flawlessly to prevail, including using the clock to their advantage to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands and somehow slowing down Leonard Fournette. They might do it for three quarters. I don’t see them doing it for four.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Denver Broncos (-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 25
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
The devastation of Trey Lance’s season-ending injury can’t be overstated. The 49ers made him their starter instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, in part, because they believed Lance would give them the best shot at a title.
Garoppolo came close. Yet he brings more of a game-management approach to the offense, which is both safe and (at times) too conservative. We’ll see if he can elevate his offense now that he’s the permanent 2022 starter.
For Denver, what a mess. So much talent, and whether it’s the fault of the head coach or the players or both, something’s wrong. But I remain all in on this club, which in Week 1 racked up more offensive yards than in any game last season. They’re good. And they’re underperforming. At some point, the team should begin to reach its potential.
Against-the-spread prediction: Broncos
Moneyline winner: Broncos
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at New York Giants
- Date: Monday, Sept. 26
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Am I giving Cooper Rush too much credit for guiding his team to victory over the Bengals? Perhaps. And yet, even without Dak Prescott — and perhaps with Dalton Schultz — there are enough playmakers on this squad to handle a team like the Giants.
New York surely will throw Saquon Barkley at Dallas, and I believe Dallas’s defense can repel him more often than not. If Daniel Jones is forced to try to win this one, I like the Cowboys’ odds.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys