Although we have a Monday Night Football game remaining with two potential playoff teams, we’re moving on to Week 16 and the NFL betting lines for next week.
This week’s NFL odds feature nine games with a spread of 4 or lower. As I do every week, I give my early NFL picks after an initial review of the lines. So with that being said, here are my early NFL Week 16 predictions.
NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks
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New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
- Spread
Rams -4 - Moneyline
Saints +170, Rams -196 - Total
44.5
Two teams battling for postseason spots down the stretch. The Rams’ only path in is the Wild Card route after the Niners clinched the NFC West in Week 15. The Saints can get in via the Wild Card or by winning the NFC South. Both teams control their own destiny, starting with this Thursday night matchup.
It’s ironic that this is a matchup of two teams that I was high on in the preseason, taking both overs in win totals. The Rams are already there (5.5), and the Saints would have to win out to get to over 9.5. Right now, it’s Los Angeles playing the better football, 3-1 since Kyren Williams came back.
Pick: Rams -4
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Bengals -130, Steelers +112 - Total
38.5
This line is a bit confusing to me. Yes, the Steelers won the first matchup two weeks ago, 16-10. But that was also the last win Pittsburgh has had — losing the last three.
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They’re not playing good football right now, while the Bengals, even with Jake Browning, have won three straight, to get back into the playoff picture. I see no reason why the Steelers will all of a sudden figure it out. They weren’t playing good football even when they were winning.
Pick: Bengals -2.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Bills -13.5 - Moneyline
Bills -900, Chargers +600 - Total
42.5
I do not expect the Chargers, who looked to have given up last week, to stop the Bills express. Buffalo might be one of the best teams in the AFC and continue fighting for their postseason lives.
You also never know what a team will look like with an interim coach. Either way, the Bills should win here. Just a matter if you want to lay 13.5 on the road on the other side of the country or take a team that has given up.
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Colts -112, Falcons +100 - Total
44.5
I have been riding the Colts the entire second half of the season, and I’m not stopping now, especially getting points vs. a fading Falcons team.
Atlanta was a play away from basically having the NFC South wrapped up, then blew the lead to Tampa Bay and then lost to one-win Carolina. The Colts, meanwhile, have won five of six and are right in the thick of the AFC South and Wild Card races. Indianapolis continues winning.
Pick: Colts -1.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
- Spread
Packers -4 - Moneyline
Packers -215, Panthers +180 - Total
36.5
Remember when the Packers went to New Jersey for MNF with a postseason berth in their grasp? Yeah, well, they blew the lead to the Giants and then put up a dud vs. the Bucs in Week 14.
Playoff hopes are on life support. The Panthers had a nice last-second win over the Falcons, but not much to look at there. This is a no bet for me.
Pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Texans -2.5 - Moneyline
Browns +112, Texans -135 - Total
42.5
I’m excited for this one. Both teams are cardiac kids, winning a combined 12 one-possession games (six each). Both teams have looked great at times and at other times have looked like they don’t belong.
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Overall, I think the Browns are the better team, especially with Joe Flacco back there. But the key here is the game is in Houston. The Browns are 2-4 on the road this season and look like a different team away from home. I’m leaning toward the Texans on this one.
Pick: Lean Houston -2.5
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Lions -144, Vikings +124 - Total
46.5
Despite losing on Saturday (and watching the Lions win later on), the Vikings aren’t dead yet in the NFC North. The two teams play each other twice in the last three weeks, and Minnesota’s other game is vs. Green Bay, while Detroit gets Dallas.
If the Vikings win out and the Lions lose to the Cowboys, Minnesota takes the division. That’s likely not happening, but they can take the first one at home. Both teams can score, and both have lapses on defense, so I’m going to play the over 46.5 here as we could see an indoor track meet.
Pick: Over 46.5
Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets Odds
- Spread
Jets -3 - Moneyline
Commanders +126, Jets -148 - Total
39.5
The Washington defense stinks. The Jets offense is worse. This might be the battle of the worst offense and defense in the league and not a game I want to watch.
The Jets, outside of the second half in the pouring rain vs. the Texans in Week 13, have totaled 58 points over the other 30 quarters since their bye. I’ll let you do the math. The Commanders had one score before benching Sam Howell in the fourth quarter against the Rams. Only one way to go.
Pick: Under 39.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -1.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks -126, Titans +108 - Total
43
We still need to see what the Seahawks do on MNF vs. the Eagles, but they’re better than the Titans.
MORE: Eagles vs. Seahawks Predictions and Picks
I’d love this line more if Seattle wasn’t going west to east on short rest, which could screw with the players’ time clocks. These things happen from time to time, but they are still the better team here.
Pick: Lean Seattle -1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -1 - Moneyline
Jaguars -148, Buccaneers +126 - Total
44
A battle of Sunshine State teams here with both knee-deep in the playoff race. As of post time, both teams are in the division lead, but not much room for error.
I expect this to be a close one and give the edge to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs at home with the points, especially if Trevor Lawrence does not clear concussion protocol.
Pick: Bucs +1
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Odds
- Spread
Bears -4 - Moneyline
Cardinals +146, Bears -174 - Total
44.5
Two teams playing out the string and figuring out what 2024 is going to look like. Both fought hard in losses in Week 14, with the Bears losing in the closing seconds. I lean Chicago here as they have been playing tough, but I’m not laying -4.
Pick: Pass, Bears at -3 or shorter
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -1.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys +100, Dolphins -120 - Total
51.5
Sure, the Dolphins haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record (Broncos were 7-6 before Week 14), but the Cowboys have beaten only one (Eagles in Week 13). They also got blown out by Buffalo last week, as Miami did in Week 4.
There are two big factors for me in this one. For one, the game is in Miami, where the Dolphins are 6-1 this season with the lone loss being the MNF meltdown to Tennessee. All six of the wins were by a TD or more. All four of the Cowboys’ losses have been on the road, including blowout losses to Buffalo and San Fran.
Secondly, Tyreek Hill was close to playing vs. the Jets and should be back in the lineup against Dallas. The Dolphins showed they can win without Hill, but are a far better offense with him in it. If he’s back and the defense can play anywhere close to how well they played vs. the Jets, they should win this one.
Dallas opened as a favorite before the teams played this week, but the line has shifted to Miami, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Miami -1.5
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -6 - Moneyline
Patriots +225, Broncos -275 - Total
36.5
Denver’s defense had been doing great until running into the Lions’ buzzsaw on Saturday night.
The Patriots are not the Lions. Not even close. I expect a slow-played, low-scoring game between these two.
Pick: Under 36.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -10 - Moneyline
Raiders +425, Chiefs -550 - Total
43.5
I played it a few weeks ago, and I will play it again… Chiefs team total over. Why? This is what KC has done in the last six games vs. the Raiders; 31-31-30-48-41-40. At least 31 in every game.
The line is not posted yet, but you should take anything if it’s below 30. They entered Vegas in a slump last time and put up 31 to beat the over 27.5.
Pick: Chiefs team total over TBD (anything up to 29.5)
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -10.5 - Moneyline
Giants +425, Eagles -550 - Total
43.5
We need to see how the Eagles rebound from their back-to-back losses to Dallas and San Fran when they play in Seattle on Monday night, but they still shouldn’t have any issues with the Giants here. Lots can change with Hurts questionable on Monday night, so we wait and see.
Pick: Pass under after Monday night
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
- Spread
49ers -4.5 - Moneyline
Ravens +175, 49ers -210 - Total
45.5
Until someone stops them, it’s hard not to like the Niners every week. They are now 10-0 with nine double-digit wins when Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are healthy, and a Ravens team off short rest and traveling cross country probably won’t change that.
Pick: Niners -4.5
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