We have reached the NFL playoffs, and we get rewarded with three of the best football weekends of the year as professional and college football combine to give us high-octane excitement. In this article, we will focus on the NFL aspect and Wild Card Weekend, where six juicy matchups await us.
NFL Week 18 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Using the Pro Football Network metrics, we will break down all six games and give our NFL Wild Card Weekend picks and predictions based on the lines available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6 a.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025.
If you are looking to bet on both the NFL and the College Football Playoffs, then our friends over at College Football Network will have you covered for all things college football.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans
- Moneyline: Chargers -162; Texans +136
- Total: 43.5
This game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans may not have the big names and historical elements of some other matchups, but it’s intriguing to kick off Wild Card Weekend. The Chargers were 100% right to play hard in Week 18 in the hunt for the No. 5 seed. Their reward is shorter travel, a guarantee of good conditions, and a matchup against the lowest-ranked team from the AFC in our NFL Power Rankings.
Our metrics show the Chargers as the superior team on offense (17th vs. 29th), while the two teams are fairly even on defense (Texans 4th vs. Chargers 5th) and special teams (Texans 15th vs. Chargers 14th).
The Texans have played a tougher schedule, but both performed similarly against high-quality opposition. Houston is 1-4 against other playoff teams, while Los Angeles is 2-4. The Texans have the best win of that set, beating the Buffalo Bills, while the Chargers’ two wins were both over the No. 7 seed Denver Broncos.
Even when you factor in home-field advantage, our metrics favor the Chargers to win this game. Our simulations give LA a 56.2% chance of beating Houston, which is actually lower than the 61.8% implied probability that the sportsbooks have given them with -162 odds.
That makes the Texans a slight plus value play here, but only very slightly. Our metrics give them a 43.8% chance, and the sportsbooks have them at 42%. With the two sides being close, it might make more sense to bet against the offenses here.
Although the Chargers’ offense has been rolling in the last three weeks, they did not score more than 23 points in any of the previous four games. Houston came into Week 18 having scored a total of 41 points in the previous three games.
These early Saturday games have had a tendency to get a little wild in recent years, but the metrics tell us that this should be a low-scoring game. The total doesn’t leave much room for the under to hit if we do have a couple of big plays, but anything up to 23-20 being on our side makes this a good bet in what should be a close game.
Prediction: Chargers 20, Texans 17
Pick: Under 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Steelers +380; Ravens -500
- Total: 45.5
This game is likely to cause the most headaches for people betting this week. The numbers tell you that the Baltimore Ravens are clearly the better team. They are superior on offense and defense while having played a tougher schedule this season. Baltimore is on a four-game win streak, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a four-game losing streak. Everything says Baltimore wins this by at least a touchdown.
However, these AFC North games are rarely that cut and dry. Sure, Baltimore ran out easy winners in the end in Week 16 (34-17), but the game was 24-17 in the fourth quarter before Marlon Humphrey picked off Russell Wilson and took it back for a touchdown. That game got away from the Steelers in the end, but for the first three quarters, there were never more than seven points in it.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been exceptional against Lamar Jackson this season. Jackson’s two worst games in terms of QB+ this season have both come when facing the Steelers (D and D+). Jackson did not grade below a C against any other team this season. In fact, four of Jackson’s eight worst career games, according to QB+, have come against Pittsburgh, whose defense is partly built to neutralize his skill set as much as possible.
If this game were in Pittsburgh, you would give the Steelers a chance to spring the upset. However, with the way they are trending, it’s hard to imagine them going on the road and winning as 9.5-point underdogs, especially having lost their last four games by an average of 13 points.
I’m hesitant to lay this many points, so instead, the strategy here is to tease the line down to Ravens -3.5 and either combine it with another game or take the total up to 51.5. The Week 16 game saw 51 points scored, but seven came from a defensive score, which is hard to project. That was the only game in the last nine between these two to go over 40 points.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 17
Pick: Ravens -3.5 and under 51.5 in a teaser
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
- Moneyline: Broncos +360; Bills -470
- Total: 47.5
This matchup between the Bills and Broncos is fascinating. Of the three potential No. 7 seeds entering Week 18, this is probably the matchup that the Bills would have wanted the least. The Broncos’ never-say-die attitude on offense, coupled with a strong defense, is something Buffalo would have preferred to avoid.
The metrics for the season tell us that the Bills are the better team overall, but perhaps not by as much as you might think. Offensively, Buffalo is a top-10 team, but defensively, they are around league average and are outside the top 20 on special teams. Denver, meanwhile, is league-average on offense but a top-three team defensively and a top-10 team on special teams.
The one big thing in the Bills’ favor here is that they are 8-0 at home, while the Broncos are 4-5 on the road. Denver has lost four of its last five road games, including a 31-point loss to the Baltimore Ravens back in Week 9. Their losses in Los Angeles, Cincinnati, and Kansas City were all by one score, but even so, there is a clear pattern. Denver’s only road wins have been in Las Vegas, New Orleans, New York (Jets), and Tampa Bay.
Is that enough to make the Bills 8.5-point favorites? The sportsbooks have given Buffalo an 82.5% implied probability with these odds, while our metrics put it at 61.8%. It’s still fairly conclusive, but it’s nowhere near the level the sportsbooks are giving. Therefore, the play here is either to take the Broncos getting the points or tease the Bills down to -2.5, where the implied probability of a win is 56.5%.
If you tease the Bills, you need a partner for it. There are a few options for that, including reducing the total for this game to 41.5. The Broncos have scored 20+ points in six straight games and allowed 30+ in three of their last five. Buffalo scored 40+ in three of their last five and 30+ in nine of their last 11. They’ve also allowed 20+ in seven of their last nine games.
Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 21
Pick: Bills -2.5 and over 41.5 in a teaser
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Packers +180; Eagles -218
- Total: 46.5
The game in Lincoln Financial Field between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles may well be the game of Wild Card Weekend. Less than a month ago, the Packers were still on the fringes of the NFC No. 1 seed race, but they’ve taken three losses out of the last five to fall to No. 7 in a tightly packed conference.
They would never admit it publicly, but this has to be the matchup that the Eagles least wanted. Philadelphia just snuck by Green Bay in Week 1 in Brazil, and the two teams are pretty evenly matched in our power rankings, both sitting inside the top seven.
The Packers are the superior team on offense (8th vs. 14th), but the Eagles are the superior team on defense (2nd vs. 10th). Yet, Green Bay’s 2024 schedule ranks as the hardest in the NFL, while Philadelphia’s ranks as the second-easiest. Philadelphia will be the better-rested team, and the Packers have yet another injury concern around Jordan Love, which complicates matters some.
Love looked ready to return to the game in Week 18 and may have come back if the Packers had deemed it vital. As it was, Malik Willis finished it out, leaving some uncertainty. Chances are Love will be at least limited in practice this week, which may mean we have uncertainty all throughout.
The early line here gives the Eagles a 68.6% implied win probability, which is significantly higher than the 59% given by our metrics. Given the belief we have that Love is fine, the value here is to take the Packers getting the points on the road. Of their six losses, only one was by more than five points (vs. Detroit in Week 9 with an injured Love).
In regards to the total, this one feels like a stay-away. Two good defenses make you lean towards the under, but both offenses are above average and are capable of racking up points. There is a temptation to make this another teaser and take the Packers up to +10.5 and the total up to 52.5.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Packers 20
Pick: Packers +4.5 and a teaser with Packers +10.5 and under 52.5
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +145; Buccaneers -175
- Total: 50.5
We saw this game between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. While that was a blowout win for the Buccaneers, it hinted at the excitement that the Commanders could bring to the table this year with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Since then, we have had quite the ride for both teams, and the Commanders actually finished two wins better than the Buccaneers.
However, according to our SOS+ metric, Washington played the easiest schedule in the league, while Tampa Bay finished 21st, thanks to a largely easy finish.
These two teams finished back-to-back in our end-of-regular-season power rankings, with the Buccaneers at eight and the Commanders at nine.
Tampa Bay has a slight edge both on offense and defense, but in both cases, it was by less than two spots in the rankings. Our metrics give the Buccaneers a 54.9% chance of winning this game, which is below the 63.6% implied probability from the sportsbooks. However, acting on that would rely on us trusting the Jekyll and Hyde Commanders, who have bounced all over the map this season.
Even the total is not as tempting as it would have been a few weeks back. Both teams ranked outside the top 20 defensively a few weeks ago, but they finished right around the league average. Still, both offenses remain inside the top five in terms of our Offense+ metric.
You know I love a teaser so my pick here would be Commanders +9.5 and over 44.5, which actually might be more tempting than playing the over straight up. Washington has not lost by more than eight points since Week 1, and they’ve scored 23+ in eight of their last 11. Similarly, Tampa Bay has scored 23+ in 13 of their last 14.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Commanders 24
Pick: Commanders +9.5 and over 44.5 in a teaser
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Vikings -130; Rams +110
- Total: 47.5
Wild Card Weekend will finish with another rematch from the 2024 season. The Los Angeles Rams host the Minnesota Vikings, who they beat back in Week 8, with their season hanging by a thread.
That game last time was headlined by the end of Christian Darrisaw’s season and the impact that had on Minnesota in that meeting. It also saw the two teams locked at 21-20 with 12:45 to go in the fourth quarter, with a controversial call at the end.
Regarding the metrics, Minnesota is the better team, but that was the case in Week 8 as well. They are a top-three team on defense, while the Rams are outside the top 20. Additionally, Minnesota ranks 10th offensively, with LA close behind in 12th. The Rams have also played a tougher schedule (4th vs. 11th), which evens things out a bit.
The element of this that is impossible to put a number on is experience. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have done the prime-time game with it all on the line a lot in their careers, while Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold have less experience. The Rams have arguably been playing playoff football for the last two or three months, while the Vikings just wilted in front of a national audience in their biggest game of the last decade.
The sportsbooks’ number (56.1% implied probability) and our metrics (54.9%) are in lockstep on this one. Everything about it tells you the Vikings should win, but can they do it on a Monday night in a knockout game?
O’Connell and Darnold are a great feel-good story, but betting cannot be influenced by what we want to happen. The alarm bells are ringing loud here.
This is another game where a teaser comes into play. The game has a good chance of being close, so take the Rams up to +8.5 and the total down to 41.5. Both offenses are good enough to get to 20 points, and both have the capability to score 30.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Rams 23
Pick: Rams +8.5 and over 41.5 in a teaser