Week 9 of the 2024 NFL schedule is a fascinating one. There are plenty of tight matchups, and now that we have a good idea about these teams, sportsbook lines are generally pretty close to what we would expect from these games. Still, there are some intriguing spots to try and exploit.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the early lines for Week 9 and, using our PR+ metric, break down where we see potential value with our NFL picks and predictions.
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
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NFL Week 9 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Houston Texans (-1) at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Texans -118; Jets -102
- Total: 43.5
This game is intriguing because these teams have completely opposite records (6-2 vs. 2-6), but neither has been particularly convincing. Five of the Texans’ six wins have been by one score and a total of 18 points. They are 5-1 in one-score games and just 11th in our PR+ standings. Houston’s defense is a top-10 unit and carries an offense that ranks just inside the bottom half.
Texans prevent the hail mary attempt to secure the win! pic.twitter.com/qWc5kICv0o
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
The Jets are the complete opposite in one-score games. Four of their six losses have been by a single score, and they’ve lost those games by a total of 13 points (3.25 points per game). New York enters this matchup with a 1-4 record in one-score games and sits just inside the top half of our PR+. Much like the Texans, the Jets lean heavily on a ninth-ranked defense, but that has been fading since Robert Saleh left.
This game feels very appropriately priced, with the Texans as narrow favorites. Our playoff predictor has the Texans winning 52% of the time, and they are only marginally above the Jets in our PR+.
On a short week, with the Texans heading outdoors for just the second time this season, it’s hard to trust them to win when they haven’t dominated this year.
Prediction: Texans 23, Jets 20
Pick: Pass
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
- Moneyline: Broncos +360; Ravens -470
- Total: 44.5
This line is fascinating because we just saw a very similar matchup in terms of a strong defense facing a strong offense and vice versa. In that matchup, the Cleveland Browns were able to overcome the Baltimore Ravens when the Ravens were favored by more than a touchdown. It’s exactly the same situation this week, with the Denver Broncos being a slightly more complete team.
Denver brings the best defense and the 23rd-best offense to this matchup. If this develops into a shootout, then they will probably lose. But if they can hold the Ravens to around 17-23 points, they have a chance.
Baltimore has the top-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. There’s also a disadvantage on special teams, and while that is small, it adds up.
The Broncos are such a tough team because we keep waiting for their bubble to burst. To this point, they’ve faced the fifth-easiest schedule, but Denver’s defense is good enough to make you believe they can take on anyone. Just one of their five wins has been by less than one score, and they are 1-3 in one-score games, which could suggest there is more upside to be found.
The PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Ravens a 65% chance of victory, which seems fair. They just stumbled, but that was on the road. The right play based on the numbers is Denver +8, but betting on Bo Nix is difficult because he always feels like it could fall apart at any time.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Broncos 20
Pick: Pass
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +240; Bills -298
- Total: 48.5
The Buffalo Bills went into Seattle and laid down the law with a dominant 21-point win. They have now won four of their six games by more than 20 points and very much appear to be a force. However, we still haven’t seen them win against a team we truly trust to be a Super Bowl contender.
The Miami Dolphins will be enthused by their offense, which produced the second-best Offense+ score of Week 8, but that is somewhat tempered by their 27th-ranked Defense+ score. The defense had been Miami’s strength, but it now looks like it could have been a product of a relatively soft schedule. The Dolphins’ schedule currently ranks as the easiest to this point, which raises some questions going forward.
The Bills have had the Dolphins number in recent years. Buffalo has won the last five meetings against Miami, with the last three all being by 7+ points.
Mike McDaniel won his first matchup against the Bills as head coach but hasn’t won one since. Look for Buffalo to win this with potential ease. The Dolphins’ offense should at least make it interesting, though.
Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 24
Pick: Over 48.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +300; Bengals -380
- Total: 45.5
It’s time we stopped pretending that the Cincinnati Bengals are a good team who have had a tough run in terms of their schedule. They are 3-5 and have only beaten teams who are among the worst in the NFL this season. Cincinnati’s schedule to date ranks as the 11th-easiest, and yet, the Bengals are in serious trouble when it comes to reaching the playoffs.
The positive is that they get to face another bad team this week, the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders rank 29th in our PR+, with the Bengals 23rd. However, this spread is right on the borderline of where I want to take Cincinnati this week. Ideally, I’m going to look to tease it down to under three points, where things will feel more comfortable.
The Bengals’ home game against the Raiders should be a slam dunk. Las Vegas is a bottom-half team both offensively and defensively, so they shouldn’t be able to exploit Cincinnati’s poor defense.
This game has the potential to be high scoring, but trusting the Raiders to do their part to hit the over is risky. The tease with the Bengals is probably the only smart play here.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Raiders 20
Pick: Bengals anywhere below -3 in a tease
Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Commanders -180; Giants +150
- Total: 44
There should be little doubt that the Washington Commanders are on the right side of this game, given that they are a top-10 team in our PR+ and the Giants are in the bottom 10.
The problem is that we just saw how much less effective Jayden Daniels looked with his rib injury, which gives a slight pause. However, they were facing one of the top defenses in the league, and the Giants are a tier or two lower than the Bears.
We haven’t seen the Giants yet in Week 8, as they play on Monday Night Football. However, entering this week, the offense has scored just 10 points in the previous two games. They did well on defense last time out against the Commanders, but that was an offense still very much finding its footing under Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury.
Assuming Daniels is only going to get healthier, Washington should win this by a touchdown or more. But you may just want to hang on in terms of betting it because this line could move around if Daniels misses practice. It’s a calculated risk because if he seems fine, this line could just be a point or two in the Commanders’ direction.
Prediction: Commanders 23, Giants 17
Pick: Commanders -3.5
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3)
- Moneyline: Patriots +130; Titans -155
- Total: 39
This is another game this year where I cannot, in good conscience, give you a pick. This is a game between two of the bottom seven teams in our PR+, and both have major issues.
We have no idea who will be at quarterback for either team with Will Levis and Drake Maye both set to be on the injury report. This could be a game between Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett, which is a somewhat wild thing to say.
The offenses rank 30th (Patriots) and 31st (Titans) in our Offense+. Tennessee has the edge on defense, ranking 15th (vs. 28th), while New England has the edge on special teams, leading the league (vs. 31st).
The Titans’ defense is a fading force this season, and it’s easy to believe they could end up being a bottom-three team in our PR+ by the end of the season. Neither offense being good makes you think under, but neither defense is particularly good either. For your own health, just stay away from this one.
Prediction: Patriots 18, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Chargers -135; Browns +114
- Total: 40.5
This game is remarkable even when you start thinking about it. Sure, the Browns are 27th in our PR+, but that’s based largely on an offense that was just a complete mess under Deshaun Watson. While it was hardly high-flying under Jameis Winston, it finished the week ranked 18th in Offense+, one spot below the Chargers.
TILLY PUTS US AHEAD!#BALvsCLE on CBS and NFL+ pic.twitter.com/nLKMAgT9Tu
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 27, 2024
Defensively, both units rank inside the top 10, with the Chargers having a slight edge over the Browns (fourth vs. eighth). Both are also in the top 10 in special teams, with Cleveland ranking third and Los Angeles eighth. Additionally, they’ve both played schedules that rank inside the top 10 easiest through eight weeks.
We don’t want to overreact to the Browns’ one win, but this is very much a game they should be in this week. Four of Cleveland’s six losses have been by a single score, in which they are 2-4 in. The Chargers have yet to score more than 27 points, suggesting they are not going to run away with this one. They themselves are 1-2 in one-score games but have largely relied on their defense.
This has the makings of a low-scoring game that will likely not be remembered fondly but could be exciting in the Week 9 Witching Hour. The under very much feels like the right play, with two offenses that rank in the bottom third this year and two defenses that rank in the top third.
Prediction: Chargers 17, Browns 14
Pick: Under 40.5
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +114; Falcons -135
- Total: 49
For the briefest of moments on Sunday Night Football, it felt like the Dallas Cowboys bye week may have helped them fix what ails them. Unfortunately, that proved not to be the case as the 49ers steamrolled them in the third quarter, scoring 21 unanswered points to completely change the shape of the matchup.
The Cowboys are now 3-4 and 25th in our PR+ standings.
The Atlanta Falcons may have won on Sunday to put themselves in a relatively commanding spot in the NFC South with two wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year, but they haven’t been convincing by any means. The Falcons sit 20th in PR+ with a 10th-ranked offense and 27th-ranked defense.
The good news for Atlanta is that the Cowboys are just as bad on defense and worse on offense. The Falcons should be able to continue padding their advantage over the Buccaneers this weekend as Tampa Bay faces the Kansas City Chiefs.
Cowboys/Falcons has the potential to be high scoring because neither defense is good, which is always a little scary. I like the Falcons to cover and the over to hit, but I prefer the play on the total.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Cowboys 24
Pick: Falcons -2.5 and Over 49
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Saints -285; Panthers +230
- Total: 45
It seems absolutely wild that a team that has lost six straight games and is 2-6 would be favored by 6.5 points on the road. The fact that is even the case tells you just how poor the Carolina Panthers have been this season.
If you are confident that the Saints are getting Derek Carr back, then you can lay the points or tease this game below a field goal. The price here already partly assumes that he will be back, but it could move another couple of points once that looks more likely or is confirmed.
Therefore, if you want to take advantage of a game where you can bet against the Panthers while laying less than a touchdown, now would be the time to do so. The Saints scored 47 points the last time these two met, and while they don’t have that ceiling now, they should still win.
With the uncertainty over how close Carr will be to 100% and having seen Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener play quarterback, I would rather miss the opportunity than risk holding a ticket that has either of those laying nearly a touchdown. A teaser is the better play, but even that comes with risk if either of the young QBs is starting.
The under may well be the best bet because even with Carr, this is still likely an offense that is capped at around 30 points. Carolina hasn’t scored more than 14 points with Bryce Young at quarterback and has only topped 20 points twice all year.
Prediction: Saints 23, Panthers 14 (if Carr plays)
Pick: Under 45
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +280; Eagles -355
- Total: 47.5
The Philadelphia Eagles put to bed many of the concerns swirling around them this season with a comprehensive win over the Bengals. Jalen Hurts was superb, and the offense was a top-five unit this week through Sunday. The defense wasn’t at its best, but the Bengals’ offense is a pretty good unit, so it was always likely that they would have some success moving the ball.
Here are our QB+ grades through the early slate of games in Week 8 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/JofPNdRk3W
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 27, 2024
The Jaguars have put together a couple of solid weeks offensively, backing up a strong showing in Wembley with a seventh-ranked offensive performance coming out of Sunday. Jacksonville’s defense remains a concern, ranking 30th overall, but they did have another solid week, even if they allowed 30 points.
The Eagles are just a better overall team than the Jaguars. They sit 12th in our PR+ standings, compared to 28th for Jacksonville. Prior to this week, I would have been hesitant to lay a touchdown with Philadelphia, but the performance over Cincinnati was the best yet of the season.
The Eagles have now strung together two promising performances on the road. Take them lying 7.5 or tease them down under a field goal.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Jaguars 17
Pick: Eagles -7.5 or anything under -3 in a teaser
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- Moneyline: Bears -108; Cardinals -112
- Total: 45.5
Two mid-table teams in our PR+ square off in Arizona this week. The Arizona Cardinals have fought and scrapped for two wins that we may look back on as season-saving wins, but it has hardly painted the picture of a convincing team. Three of Arizona’s wins have come by a combined four points, with only the win over the reeling Rams being a blowout.
The Bears have a slight edge on the Cardinals in PR+, sitting 17th compared to 19th. They’ve done it in different ways, with Chicago relying on a second-ranked defense and Arizona relying on an eighth-ranked offense.
Normally, we would give the edge to the defensive team here, but the strength of schedule differences is vast. The Bears have played the second-easiest schedule, with the Cardinals playing the hardest.
We just saw how good the Bears’ defense is at keeping them in games against good offenses. That should be the case again here, and the Cardinals’ defense is worse than the Commanders’ unit.
The schedule disparity concerns me about taking the Bears, especially given that Chicago has yet to beat a team that is not a bottom-feeder this season. This feels like another pass in what could be a fun game.
Prediction: Bears 23, Cardinals 20
Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions (-4) at Green Bay Packers
- Moneyline: Lions -205; Packers +170
- Total: 48.5
After an unconvincing start to the season, the Detroit Lions are marching on with an incredible level of performance. Sure, the schedule ranks among the 10 easiest in the NFL, but they are fourth on offense, fifth on defense, and seventh on special teams. They can blow teams away in an instant and can grind out wins when they need to. That is a sign of a potential champion.
The Green Bay Packers are not having it easy this year, with Jordan Love hurt again. There is every chance he either misses this game or plays it at far less than 100%.
The Packers are proving to be a middle-of-the-pack team statistically, with an 11th-ranked offense and 18th-ranked defense. Green Bay’s only quality win this year came over the Texans, a last-second win at home.
The Packers’ 6-2 record feels flimsy, with losses to the Eagles and Minnesota Vikings highlighting their struggles to get results when facing top-12 teams. Being at home could be the equalizer if the weather plays ball, but it’s hard to pass up the Lions laying less than a touchdown in this contest.
Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 20
Pick: Lions -4
Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Seattle Seahawks
- Moneyline: Rams -110; Seahawks -110
- Total: 48
One week can change everything in the NFL, and these two teams epitomize that perfectly. Entering last week, we were looking at 15 to 20 spots separating these teams in our PR+ standings, and now they are separated by just two.
The Seattle Seahawks have been bullies against bad teams but have struggled against more established opposition. The win over the Broncos and the loss to the Giants are the outliers in that.
The Rams are a different beast entirely when they have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back. The defense is not good and will likely be below average all season. However, the offense at full strength can hang with opponents, which is exciting. Los Angeles has also played the fourth-hardest schedule to this point, so their 3-4 record could be a little misleading.
I still find it hard to trust this Rams team going outside to Seattle with this defense. They are 5-3 in Seattle under Sean McVay but did so with stronger defensive units than this. The Rams might end up being the better team this season, but for now, it’s hard to fully trust them after just one week of offensive output.
Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
- Moneyline: Colts +270; Vikings -340
- Total: 46
If this isn’t a perfect get-right game for the Vikings, then the alarm should be sounded about their season. Despite two losses, Minnesota remains among the top teams in our PR+ standings, thanks to a third-ranked defense, a ninth-ranked special teams, and a fifth-ranked strength of schedule.
The loss of Christian Darrisaw is a major concern for the Vikings’ offense, which could end with them closer to 20th in Offense+ than their current 15th.
However, the Indianapolis Colts are a bit of a train wreck in general. Sure, all of their losses have been close (all four being one-score games), but so have their wins. They’ve yet to face a top-10 team in our current PR+ standings, and we should learn a lot this week. Indianapolis’ offense ranks 20th, the defense is 22nd, and special teams is 15th.
The Vikings have the advantage in every facet of the game and have the potential to really humiliate the Colts if Anthony Richardson continues playing his carefree brand of football. This should be a slam-dunk get-right game for Minnesota, who should win comfortably. The only risk might be a backdoor cover if the Vikings get up big early on.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Colts 17
Pick: Vikings -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +330; Chiefs -425
- Total: 45.5
Two weeks ago, this matchup between two of the top five teams in our NFL Power Rankings was shaping up to be fantastic. Both teams still sit pretty in our PR+ standings, but the contest has changed drastically with the Buccaneers not having either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.
Tampa Bay still fared well against a poor Falcons’ defense, but the Chiefs offer a top-10 defense, which is going to be a completely different task.
Even before the injuries, the play was Kansas City. They have the fifth-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense this year. Yes, they’ve played an easier schedule, but the Buccaneers’ defense is problematic at 25th in our Defense+, meaning the offense would have to be perfect in order to beat the Chiefs on the road.
For as good as their 7-0 record looks, the Chiefs have only won two games by more than one score. That worries me when it comes to laying more than a touchdown in this game. I think Kansas City will win, but laying eight points is too much. If you can get the Chiefs to a field goal or less in a teaser, then that’s the play to look at this week.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Chiefs -3 or less in a teaser
