After what has felt like an attritional week of football, we can turn our attention to an intriguing Week 8 slate in the 2024 NFL season. With no teams on a bye this week, we have 16 games to preview and break down for your betting pleasure. Additionally, this article serves to help you make your selections in pick ’em contests, so we’ll predict all 16 games, even if we don’t have a firm betting selection.
Let’s examine our early NFL picks and predictions for Week 8 as we use our PFN Insights metrics alongside net expected points added per game (nEPA/G) to determine who we like from a betting perspective this week.
NFL Week 8 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 21, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Vikings -155; Rams +130
- Total: 46.5
On the surface, Thursday Night Football in Week 8 looks like it could be a one-sided affair, but there is some nuance to consider. Firstly, these two teams are very intertwined in terms of their coaching staffs.
Kevin O’Connell worked with Sean McVay as his offensive coordinator for two years prior to taking the role in Minnesota. That complicates things in how this game could shape out.
The other unknown is the potential return of both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kupp appeared to be close to returning last week, while Nacua needed at least one more week. Kupp should be good to go in Week 8, but with the short week, Nacua might need more time.
If this game were a straight call right now, you would take the Vikings. They rank second in our PFN Insights Power Rankings+ (PR+) and third in nEPA/G. Meanwhile, the Rams rank 20th in PR+ and 23rd in nEPA/G.
I’m still backing the Vikings this week, as they are superior in all three phases of the game. Both teams have played the hardest schedules to this point, and Minnesota has been vastly superior statistically. However, this might not be as easy as it looks on paper if the Rams get key weapons back on offense.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Rams 17
Pick: Vikings -3
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11.5)
- Moneyline: Titans +470; Lions -650
- Total: 45.5
There is an absolute chasm between the Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. The Lions rank first in our PR+ and second in nEPA/G. They have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense, with an above-average special teams. They are better than the Titans in all three aspects of the game after seven weeks.
Tennessee ranks 24th in our PR+ and nEPA/G, with neither the offense nor defense ranking in the top 10. The problem is that the sportsbooks know this as well and have set the line accordingly.
The Lions have two games coming up against the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans, which means they could easily overlook this game. I still expect Detroit to win, but covering more than 10 points is tough to project.
The best way to bet the Lions here is to tease the line down to around -6 and pair it with another play. There are plenty of candidates to pair them with this week.
Prediction: Lions 23, Titans 13
Pick: Lions -5.5 or -6 as part of a teaser
Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Ravens -485; Browns +370
- Total: 42.5
This matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns is another example of how two teams are widely different in terms of potential. However, there is also an unknown here in terms of Jameis Winston taking over as Cleveland’s starting QB.
We have no idea what the Browns will look like, as all our previous data is built on Deshaun Watson under center, which has been a disaster.
Deshaun Watson suffers what appears to be an achilles injury on this play.pic.twitter.com/c55Fd32hn1
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2024
In PR+ and nEPA/G, the Ravens are among the elite teams, ranking third and eighth, respectively. In contrast, the Browns rank 28th in PR+ and 30th in nEPA/G.
All the data tells you Baltimore will win easily, but the situation could have a galvanizing effect on Cleveland. Therefore, laying 10 points seems risky with the unknowns.
Much like with the Lions’ game, the best approach is with a teaser. Take the Ravens down to below a touchdown, pair it with the Lions, and look for both to handle their business with relative ease.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 17
Pick: Ravens -4 in a teaser
Green Bay Packers (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Moneyline: Packers -225; Jaguars +185
- Total: 49
Finally we get to a game with both a single-digit spread and relatively few unknowns involved.
The Packers have put together a solid run and rank 11th in our PR+ metric while also sitting seventh in terms of nEPA/G. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 26th in PR+ and 28th in nEPA/G. Jacksonville’s — and Trevor Lawrence’s — performance was much improved in Week 7, but we must not ignore how bad the Patriots’ defense is.
Here are our QB+ grades after the early slate of games in Week 7 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Q48A7M6gjb
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2024
Of course, there is the complication that the Packers are a road favorite, which is never ideal when laying more than three points. However, they were superior in both Offense+ and Defense+ in 2024 and did not have to travel back from London after Week 7.
The Jaguars used their London experience to galvanize them to recover from a poor start last year, but their underlying numbers were better. With such a gulf between the two teams, backing the superior Packers — even on the road — is the play here.
Prediction: Packers 27, Jaguars 17
Pick: Packers -5
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Eagles +114; Bengals -135
- Total: 46.5
The initial impression of this line is that it very much feels off that the Cincinnati Bengals are favored by nearly three points, even at home. The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t always looked convincing, but statistically, they are the superior team, ranking ninth in our PR+ and 13th in nEPA/G. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 22nd in PR+ and 18th in nEPA/G, despite facing the fourth-easiest schedule to this point.
Cincinnati has the slightly better offense in terms of numbers but only scored 17 points against the Giants on the road, while Philadelphia managed 28. The Eagles also have the better defense, which should serve them well in this matchup against a 28th-ranked Bengals defense.
My plays here are to take Philadelphia straight up, get the points, and, in a teaser, take the lineup over a touchdown. Although I’m not a big believer in the Eagles, I’m even less of a believer in the Bengals.
Predictions: Eagles 24, Bengals 21
Picks: Eagles ML, +2.5, and +8.5 in a teaser
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Colts +230; Texans -285
- Total: 46.5
Considering only one game separates the Indianapolis Colts and the Texans in the standings, there appears to be a wider gap than that between them when you look at the underlying numbers. They actually fall very close together in nEPA/G, ranking 16th and 17th. However, in PR+, the Texans are 14th, while the Colts are 23rd.
Taking Houston to cover at home is the play here. They narrowly beat Indianapolis on the road but are the more consistent team. Houston’s losses have come against two very good teams (Vikings and Packers), so we shouldn’t be too concerned with the Texans’ Week 7 loss on the road in Lambeau.
The line being at -6.5 does give you the option to tease it down close to a pick ’em if laying nearly a touchdown with Houston makes you a bit nervous after some mixed performances this year.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 17
Pick: Texans -6.5
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
- Moneyline: Falcons +130; Buccaneers -155
- Total: 48
We are still only a couple of weeks removed from the craziness of the Atlanta Falcons Thursday Night Football victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That game could easily have gone the other way, and now we have the Buccaneers at home as the statistically superior team on all fronts.
Tampa Bay is sitting pretty in fourth in our PR+ metric, while Atlanta is 17th. Additionally, the Bucs are 10th in nEPA/G, while the Falcons are 19th. Both are top-10 offenses, with Tampa having a slight advantage (fourth vs. eighth). Yet, the Buccaneers have a top-20 defense, and the Falcons rank 27th on that side of the ball this season.
Based on the numbers, this seems like an easy play on the Buccaneers. We just saw the Falcons struggle at home against another team ranked in the top 10 of our PR+. The biggest risk here is that this could become a shootout, and then it could become a volatile game with the potential for wild swings.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 22
Pick: Buccaneers -3 and over 48
New York Jets (-6.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Jets -270; Patriots +220
- Total: 41.5
The dawning, or (Todd) Downing, of a new era for the New York Jets hasn’t quite come to fruition. Since firing Robert Saleh, they’ve gone 0-2, and the defense has slipped in our Defense+ rankings. New York now sits 16th in our PR+ and 20th in nEPA/G, which is a major concern.
The good news is that this week they face the New England Patriots, who their head coach called “soft” after their game in London. While that will likely elicit some kind of response in Week 8, it’s unlikely to be enough for a team ranked 31st in both our PR+ and nEPA/G.
Covering close to a touchdown on the road for a league-average team is not ideal. And with the Jets looking discombobulated, it would make sense to try not to play that line if you can.
Teasing the line down close to a pick ’em and pairing it with another game offers more margin for error if the Jets still look unsettled in Week 8. New York should win with ease, but my faith in them is dissipating quickly.
Prediction: Jets 27, Patriots 17
Pick: Jets -0.5 in a teaser
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-3)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +130; Dolphins -155
- Total: 47.5
Before we go any deeper, this game is a pass for the pure and simple reason that we have no idea who will be playing quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. The line here would indicate that the sportsbooks believe it is Tua Tagovailoa, but we don’t know that for sure.
Tua will practice this week, but given his history of concussions, we could see the Dolphins play it safe for one more week.
The Insiders on @NFLGameDay Kickoff with @MikeGarafolo and @TomPelissero: #Browns RB Nick Chubb makes his season debut; #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could start next week; #Lions star Aidan Hutchinson could return for the Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/3z5ykcOYNV
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 20, 2024
The Cardinals are the superior team in terms of PR+ and nEPA/G, but all of that goes out the window if Tua is back. He immediately boosts Miami’s offense, and they also have a top-10 defense, so the Dolphins would likely jump above the Cardinals in a subjective power ranking if we were accounting for Tagovailoa’s return.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Cardinals 17 (if Tua plays)
Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
- Moneyline: Bills -148; Seahawks +124
- Total: 48.5
Week 7 saw the Buffalo Bills continue their tour of dominance over average or worse teams, while the Seattle Seahawks changed the narrative around their season with a much-needed win. Both teams rank in the top 10 in our PR+, with the Bills at 6 and the Seahawks at 10.
When it comes to nEPA/G, the lean is heavily in favor of Buffalo, who is first compared to Seattle at 15. In EPA, the Bills are superior on both offense and defense, but our PFN+ metrics have the Seahawks marginally better on defense, with Buffalo superior on offense.
If this were a home game for the Bills, taking them to win by 3+ points would make sense. However, there is a relatively small difference between the two in our PR+, which makes me cautious to take a road favorite.
Last week, with the Jets, we saw that a road team slightly higher in PR+ is not a smart place to put your money when they are favored. I believe the Bills will win, but I’ll pass on the game.
Prediction: Bills 24, Seahawks 22
Pick: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Saints +300; Chargers -380
- Total: 39.5
With the Los Angeles Chargers yet to play in Week 7, our PR+ numbers tell you that these are two fairly even teams, ranking 18th and 19th. The New Orleans Saints are plummeting through the PR+ standings with Spencer Rattler under center, and their numbers are regressing from the incredible first two weeks they had.
The expectation is that Derek Carr won’t be able to return until Week 9, but there’s a chance he plays in Week 8. As things stand entering Monday Night Football, the Chargers covering 7.5 points is too rich to bet. Let’s see where this line settles on Tuesday morning, and then that might change the outlook.
The under might be the play to consider with Los Angeles’ defense ranking in the top five this season. However, New Orleans allowing 80 points in the last two weeks, including over 30 to the Denver Broncos, has me nervous about taking the under in their games.
Prediction: Chargers 21, Saints 14
Pick: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Chiefs -500; Raiders +380
- Total: 42
We’re back to another game with a double-digit spread, and once again, it’s a road team in that position.
The Kansas City Chiefs are fifth in both PR+ and nEPA/G, while the Las Vegas Raiders are 29th and 27th, respectively. The Raiders are a below-average team in all terms, with questions at quarterback after Aidan O’Connell got hurt, while the Chiefs are above average in all aspects.
There is very little doubt that Kansas City should win this game. How you bet it really comes down to how you feel about laying 10 points on the road.
The metrics support that the line is in the right region, and therefore, this is another teaser candidate for me. Take the Chiefs down to around -4 and pair them with one of the other teaser candidates in this article.
Prediction: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13
Pick: Chiefs -4 as part of a teaser
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Panthers +280; Broncos -355
- Total: 42.5
The Broncos are proving to be the surprise package of the 2024 NFL season. Their offense is roughly what we expected, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league, but their defense has been incredible, ranking first overall in Defense+. That has left them as a top-10 unit in terms of PR+ and, rightly, the clear favorites over the Carolina Panthers.
Any good feeling around the Panthers crumbled spectacularly in Week 7. Despite facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Carolina could only manage seven points while allowing a Marcus Mariota-led offense to score 33 (plus seven from a pick-six). The Panthers are at rock bottom in PR+ and nEPA/G, and there is little left to feel good about.
I don’t love laying over seven points on a Bo Nix offense, but Denver has proven its ability in the last three weeks to dominate bad teams. The more comfortable play is a teaser down to -1.5, but it’s hard not to just take the Broncos covering because the Panthers have been utterly dreadful in 2024. The under is also interesting here, but Denver could score 40 points on its own if Carolina turns the ball over a lot.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Panthers 10
Pick: Broncos -7.5, -1.5 in a teaser, and Under 42.5 points
Chicago Bears (-1) at Washington Commanders
- Moneyline: Bears -118; Commanders -102
- Total: 45
We’ll need to see how things shake out with Jayden Daniels this week to understand what this game might look like. The Commanders are the better team in PR+ (7th vs. 21st), but when it comes to nEPA/G, they’re fairly even, ranking fourth and sixth this season.
The Bears are the superior defensive team, while the Commanders are superior on offense.
Dan Quinn has no update on Jayden Daniels, who will undergo further evaluation tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/UHymEYUEAb
— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) October 20, 2024
Ultimately, this is a game I will pass on at this stage, given the uncertainty over Daniels. He seemed okay, but with a 5-2 start, Washington could easily be cautious with him for a game or two and not sacrifice much in the way of playoff potential.
Prediction: Bears 23, Commanders 20 (without Daniels)
Pick: Pass
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +190; 49ers -230
- Total: 47.5
This Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup is between two teams coming off bad losses and desperate to bounce back. The Dallas Cowboys were humiliated last time out, while the San Francisco 49ers will be thoroughly dejected after they made a mess of the game against the Chiefs.
The metrics show that the 49ers remain the superior team. They rank 13th in PR+ and ninth in nEPA/G, while the Cowboys are 25th in PR+ and 29th in nEPA/G.
Somewhat bizarrely, Dallas is the sixth-best team in the league by nEPA/G on the road, while San Francisco is 12th in that metric at home. However, the Cowboys’ road games have been the Browns, Giants, and Steelers, so hardly an epic gauntlet to face.
If you had set this line a week ago, it would likely have been double-digits for the 49ers. However, their loss against the Chiefs was jarring because it was very un-49ers-like, and they suffered more injury concerns on offense.
I still believe San Francisco is the superior team, but Brock Purdy, without his weapons, is a different quarterback altogether. Covering more than a field goal is tough to back when we don’t know who will be playing.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Cowboys 17
Pick: Pass
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
- Moneyline: Giants +205; Steelers -250
- Total: 37.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are back in prime time for the third game in four weeks. Despite a QB controversy, they showed in a big way in Week 7, getting a win that could prove crucial in the AFC playoff picture over the Jets.
Pittsburgh ranks 12th in our PR+ metric and sits 11th in nEPA/G. That is a big difference to the New York Giants, who are 27th and 25th, respectively, in those categories.
The Giants’ offense has scored 10 points in the last two weeks, and in Week 8, it faces a top-10 defense. Their defense is fine, but the Steelers should be able to get somewhere in the region of 20-27 points at the very minimum. That should be enough to win and cover close to a touchdown.
However, taking the Steelers’ moneyline in a teaser is the way I would rather attack this game from a betting perspective.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Giants 15
Pick: Steelers -6 and Steelers ML in a teaser
