It feels like we are finally into the meat of the regular season, with offenses starting to show out a little more as we head into Week 6. There was some incredible action this weekend, but also some head-scratching results to try and figure out the reasoning behind it.
Let’s break down all 14 games for next week and give our early NFL picks and predictions as we examine the betting lines and odds for Week 6.
NFL Week 6 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
- Moneyline: 49ers -162; Seahawks +136
- Total: 47.5
These two teams are something of an enigma to try and decipher. The San Francisco 49ers are 2-3 but rank fifth in net EPA (expected points added) per game this season. Barring two fourth-quarter collapses, this team would be 4-1, and we would likely be talking about them as one of the NFC favorites.
The concern is that the 49ers have only beaten the New York Jets and New England Patriots, who are not particularly good teams this season.
The Seattle Seahawks might very well have been 3-0 due to a weak schedule to open the season. They barely outlasted the Patriots and Denver Broncos and were not convincing against the Miami Dolphins. They’ve lost to the Detroit Lions and New York Giants in the last two weeks.
Yes, the Seahawks are ninth in net EPA this season, but that has been falling in the last few weeks after a strong start against weak opposition.
Despite everything, the 49ers are still the better team here. The concern is that they seem incapable of hanging onto leads, blowing them against both the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. On the road in Seattle, with a new kicker, on a short week is going to be a gauntlet. I am passing on this game, but in pick ’em contests, I would back the 49ers.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Seahawks 21
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +105; Bears -125
- Total: 43
We finally saw the Chicago Bears offense burst into life in Week 5. Caleb Williams looked comfortable throughout the game and produced some incredible throws. The defense has largely dragged the team to 2-2, ranking fourth in EPA per game this season, so if the offense begins to join the party, this team could be the playoff threat we hoped for before the season.
The throw 🤩
The catch 🤩📺: #CARvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/LY8XUhroJs
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 6, 2024
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense also found some life this week in scoring 37 points. That was quite the change for a team that hadn’t scored more than 20 points in the first four weeks. Jacksonville still has major problems on defense, allowing 34 points and ranking 31st in defensive EPA per game across the first five weeks.
Both offenses benefited from playing below-average defenses in Week 5, but only the Bears get to face another bad defense this week. The Jaguars are unlikely to be able to outscore Chicago against their strong defense, and Jacksonville’s defense isn’t good enough. Give me the Bears at home on any line lower than five or six points.
Prediction: Bears 27, Jaguars 17
Pick: Bears -1.5
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +360; Eagles -470
- Total: 44
There is a lot to unpack in this game because we have some intriguing story elements.
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a bye, which has the potential to help them put right their ailing defense (27th in EPA) or possibly lead to some issues of rustiness. The positive is that they should be healthy again after struggling with injury issues in the last couple of weeks.
The Cleveland Browns’ big storyline is that this could be the “kitchen sink” game for them. All week, we will hear about discontent in the camp after Deshaun Watson appeared to defy his head coach on the field in Week 5. Those moments can either divide a locker room or unite it, and predicting which can be hard.
Kevin Stefanski wanted to go for it on 4th down.
Deshaun Watson proceeds to quit on his team and walk off the field 😭😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/Lhjg3lN2DJ
— 🚀 DC Rising 🚀 (@DC__Rising) October 6, 2024
Cleveland has a league-average defense and the worst offense in the league across a number of metrics, including EPA per game. However, the Eagles’ risk of rustiness, combined with the potential for a fired-up Browns team this week, is a tough pair of intangibles to account for. I believe Philadelphia will win, but covering close to 10 points is too much.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Browns 17
Pick: Pass
Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Texans -345; Patriots +275
- Total: 38
The Houston Texans are 4-1, and quite honestly, it’s hard to work out how. They are 20th in net EPA per game, ranking 19th offensively and 16th defensively. Houston is 4-0 in one-score games, with its sole loss being a blowout against the Minnesota Vikings.
Now forget everything I just said because they are facing the Patriots, who might be the worst team in the NFL. The Patriots rank 31st in net EPA per game, 28th offensively, and 21st defensively. New England’s only bright spots have been its special teams (first in EPA per game) and rushing offense, and statistically, that’s not even that good.
The Patriots have scored more than 16 points just once this season and are averaging just 12.4 points per game. The Texans should easily be able to get to 20 points and win fairly comfortably. Take them at -7, put them in a six-point teaser, and hope they don’t overlook this game.
Prediction: Texans 23, Patriots 10
Pick: Texans -7 and -1 in a teaser
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +225; Ravens -278
- Total: 52
This matchup between the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens will see the two teams atop the rankings in terms of EPA per game go head-to-head. Add in that both teams rank in the bottom 10 defensively, and we have the potential for a barn burner in Baltimore.
Jayden Daniels has been incredible, and a lot of credit has to go to Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn for the way they’ve schemed things up for him. I keep waiting for the bubble to burst, and just maybe we saw signs of the passing game getting figured out against the Browns. However, the Ravens’ pass defense has been woeful, and Daniels could have another big game this week.
Jayden Daniels becomes the first player in NFL history with 1,000+ passing yards and 250+ rushing yards in their first 5 career games. 🔥
The #Commanders found their franchise QB and he's making history early in his rookie season. 👀 pic.twitter.com/Y0w93wfs0O
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 6, 2024
Baltimore’s offense appears to know that it is the key to their season, and for the last three weeks, they’ve delivered. The Ravens should be able to move the ball at will on the Commanders’ defense, and the only thing that makes me pause to take the over is that we could see a lot of Derrick Henry in an attempt to limit the exposure of the pass defense.
I do not believe that Washington should be underdogs by almost a touchdown, so taking them getting 6.5 is my play. I will also look to tease them up over 10 points and combine that with another similar play on this slate.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Commanders 24
Pick: Commanders +6.5 and in a teaser at anything +10 or greater
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +190; Packers -230
- Total: 50
The Green Bay Packers enter Week 6 at 3-2, with their two losses coming by a combined seven points. They are 1-2 in one-score games and have managed to ride the roller coaster of having their starting quarterback miss two weeks and be limited in a third. Green Bay is 11th in net EPA per game but only just above average when you isolate the offense and defense individually.
The Cardinals have been largely what we expected so far. They are a mercurial team that has struggled defensively for the most part and had their exciting moments on offense. That is reflected in their 21st ranking in EPA per game, sitting ninth offensively and 26th defensively. Arizona is going to be a hard team to predict week-to-week this season.
This has the makings of being a high-scoring game, but that is very much baked into the 50-point total. The Packers are the better team, and taking their ML as part of a parley is the top play for me here. I’m not ready to lay more than three points with Green Bay, but I also don’t trust the Cardinals enough to take the points.
Prediction: Packers 27, Cardinals 23
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-1)
- Moneyline: Colts -108; Titans -112
- Total: 42.5
Do we have a quarterback controversy brewing in Indianapolis?
The answer should be no because the Colts drafted Anthony Richardson to be the future. Joe Flacco might be the more consistent quarterback to win games right now, but he’s not the long-term answer. His performance in Week 5 was also heavily aided by facing a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in EPA per game.
Deep threat AP strikes again. 🚀
📺 CBS
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 6, 2024
Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan put to bed any quarterback questions before they began after his team’s win in Week 4 over the Miami Dolphins. Now coming off a bye, Tennessee will hope to come out with a much-improved offense than the one that ranked 30th in EPA through the first four weeks. Their defense ranks fifth, so it should provide a sterner test for the Colts than the Jaguars did.
This game is tough to judge because we don’t know who will be Indianapolis’ QB. If it’s Flacco, I like the Colts straight up in this game. For now, though, this is a game I’m going to steer clear of because the Titans’ defense is the best unit. However, I don’t trust Will Levis and that offense.
The under may well be the best play here, but I would rather just avoid it.
Prediction: Colts 20, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +120; Saints -142
- Total: 45
This has the makings of a fun game in Week 6. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been exciting through the first four weeks and now come off a bye. They will be hoping their defense can provide more support, ranking 25th in EPA per game so far this year. However, Tampa Bay’s offense has largely been very good outside of being shut down by a very good Denver defense.
The New Orleans Saints have been a little all over the place at times, and their top ranking in terms of EPA per game is largely due to two blowout wins to open the season. They still have two units ranking in the top 10 in the league but appear to have been figured out a little more in the last two weeks.
The over is my favorite play here. This game has a 27-23 type feel to it, but the direction is hard to call. The Saints’ numbers are so hard to read anything into, and the Buccaneers’ defense has shown the ability to fold.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Saints 23
Pick: Over 45
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: Chargers -142; Broncos +120
- Total: 37
Everything about this game screams defensive classic. The Broncos’ defense is second in EPA per game, and the Los Angeles Chargers are right behind them in third. Meanwhile, the two offenses rank 29th and 25th, respectively. Both defenses are first and second in terms of points allowed, and neither offense is averaging more than 19.2 points per game.
I expect this game to be decided on a couple of big defensive plays, which makes it tough to judge which side to take. Therefore, the only play here is the under, even if the total is already low at 37. I do not expect either side to be as aggressive and borderline careless as the Las Vegas Raiders were this week, which should limit the possessions and the scoring.
Prediction: Broncos 17, Chargers 13
Pick: Under 37
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Steelers -162; Raiders +136
- Total: 37
The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered a brutal loss to the Dallas Cowboys in a weather-affected game on Sunday Night Football. However, that is now two close losses to teams that are not as good as them, and that raises eyebrows.
We all knew that Pittsburgh’s 3-0 start was a little too good to be true, and two close losses don’t change that. However, sitting 15th in net EPA per game is very indicative of just who they are as a team.
Gardner Minshew has been benched for Aidan O'Connell after his last drive ended with this interception, his 2nd on the day.pic.twitter.com/amrhyMOZ5G
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 6, 2024
The Raiders are bad, and there is no real way of hiding that. They were reckless at times against the Broncos and paid the price.
Ultimately, Las Vegas turned to Aiden O’Connell at quarterback, and it will be interesting to see what they do at the position this week. Either way, they are going to struggle to turn around a 27th-ranked offense in EPA per game, and their below-average defense won’t save them.
This should be a perfect bounce-back spot for the Steelers. Their defense should be able to stifle the Raiders’ offense, and they should be able to move the ball against that defense. Laying three points on the road with Justin Fields isn’t fun, but it’s the only play that would make sense here.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Raiders 13
Pick: Steelers -3
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Lions -175; Cowboys +145
- Total: 52
The Cowboys, who were known last year as a team that won at home and struggled on the road, are 3-0 on the road and 0-2 at home in 2024. Yeah, that doesn’t make much sense to me either, but that’s where we are.
Dallas has gutted out two tough victories in the last two weeks, but it doesn’t hide the fact they are 25th in net EPA per game through five weeks.
Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off their bye after looking like they had finally figured some things out offensively in Week 4. We now know that the Seahawks may just be not as good defensively as their early-season performances made them look. The Lions are sixth in EPA per game offensively and 19th defensively, which both rank better than the Cowboys.
This has the makings of a high-scoring game in Arlington, but that is already baked into the total. I do not love taking Detroit giving up more than a field goal on the road. Equally, I am not touching this Cowboys team until we see some level of consistency.
Prediction: Lions 27, Cowboys 24
Pick: Pass
Atlanta Falcons (-5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Falcons -230; Panthers +190
- Total: 43
The Carolina Panthers are who we thought they were. They threw us off the scent in Week 3 with a demolition job against the Raiders, who are almost as bad.
In the past two weeks, the Panthers have averaged just 17 points, showing that their 26th-ranked offense in EPA per play is not just because of Bryce Young. Combine that with a defense that has allowed 70 points in that span, and we have problems.
The Atlanta Falcons offense understandably got off to a slow start. Throwing in a new system and a new quarterback coming off an Achilles injury, it was never going to be pretty out of the gate. Nevertheless, they now sit 10th offensively in EPA per game, which should be enough to score well against Carolina’s defense.
The Falcons have had 10 days to prepare for this game and get to face the worst team in the league in terms of net EPA per game. I’m not a huge fan of taking Atlanta laying that many points on the road, but it’s still the right play here. Additionally, I will take their ML as part of a parlay.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 17
Pick: Falcons -5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Bengals -185; Giants +194
- Total: 48.5
The Cincinnati Bengals have some intriguing symmetry through the first five weeks. They rank third in EPA per game on offense and third from last in the same metric on defense.
That has made for some fascinating football on their way to 1-4, where the Bengals now have their backs firmly against the wall. There is little room for error now, and the schedule opens up nicely in the next month.
This AFC North matchup was one to remember as Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow were both slinging it. 🔥
Here's how the QBs stacked up in this game. 👀 pic.twitter.com/pHZQDnG4H9
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 6, 2024
The Giants got a surprise win in Week 5 and did so in a very dominant fashion. If not for a bizarre play on the goal line that resulted in a huge swing in terms of points, where they went from the half-yard line to allow a touchdown in the space of a few seconds, then we would be talking more about how easily they won.
With that said, New York is still below average on both sides of the ball.
The Bengals have scored over 100 points in the last three games but have gone 1-2 in that period. Their defense is a major concern, and it will make it hard to take them laying points on the road. They should win, but the best way to go might be the moneyline as part of a parlay.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Giants 21
Pick: Bengals ML as part of a parlay
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Bills -142; Jets +120
- Total: 42
The Buffalo Bills have had a fairly drastic decline in the last two weeks, and it was topped off with some of the oddest decision-making I have ever seen from Sean McDermott and his staff at the end against the Texans.
The Bills rank in the top 10 in EPA per game on both offense and defense, but their ability to shoot themselves in the foot is a concern.
The Jets game in London was a story of two halves. New York struggled mightily out the gate but roared back in the second half to nearly snatch an improbable victory. Defensively, they’re still a solid unit, ranking sixth in EPA per game, but their offense has been woeful (24th). The hope is that Aaron Rodgers will only improve, but the injury issues are starting to mount, and he looks like a shell of his former self.
Buffalo is the better team here, and nearly every metric tells you that. Yes, the Jets are slightly better on defense, but the difference is relatively small. I expect this to be a low-scoring game next Monday in New Jersey, so taking the under is the way I am leaning early on.
Prediction: Bills 17, Jets 13
Pick: Lean Under 42
