Betting on Week 18 of any NFL season can be a little bit like betting on the NFL preseason in that rather than looking at data, you often need to consider the narrative and goal of the teams that week.
With 12 playoff places settled, there are just five teams actively fighting for a playoff spot. Three divisions are also up for grabs, and after that, it becomes about seeding spots and whether teams are worried about where they fall. Four teams, meanwhile, are locked into their playoff seedings and 15 teams have been eliminated altogether.
Let’s break down each of the 16 games this week to identify the potential motivations for each team and what that means for our NFL Week 18 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 18 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +950; Ravens -1650
- Total: 42.5
Do not refresh the page; this line is actually set at 17.5 points in favor of the Baltimore Ravens. And if you’ve watched the Cleveland Browns in the last two weeks, you’ll know that line is not an aberration.
With Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Browns have lost their last two games by a combined score of 44-9 (a difference of 35 points or 17.5 points per game).
If the Browns start Thompson-Robinson again, the Ravens should win this game easily enough to allow them to rest starters in the fourth quarter. That could hurt Baltimore’s ability to cover 17.5, however, and therefore, it’s a lot to lay.
Additionally, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Browns made the call to go back to Jameis Winston. Unless Cleveland feels the need to see more from DTR, Winston gives the Browns the best chance to win — assuming they want to.
That unknown makes it hard to lay 17.5 points this early in the week. If you are desperate to bet on the Ravens, then teasing this down to 11.5 and combining it with another positive line might make sense.
Even then, if the Browns go back to Winston, this game could be a more tightly fought affair than many are expecting to open the week. If Thompson-Robinson is confirmed as a starter, I see the tease down to 11.5 while taking the total up to 48.5 as a nice same game parlay.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 7
Pick: Ravens -11.5 in a teaser
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Moneyline: Bengals -148; Steelers +124
- Total: 48.5
The NFL has taken a huge leap of faith with the scheduling of this game. They are assuming the Pittsburgh Steelers will care whether they are the No. 5 or 6 seed in the AFC. If they don’t, then the Steelers could rest their starters if the Ravens win earlier on Saturday.
This makes this game hard to pick because if both teams play at full strength, the Steelers getting 2.5 points is the play.
Pittsburgh has a significantly better defense and special teams, while the Cincinnati Bengals have the better offense. However, we saw last week how having a superior defense allows you to stay in a game even if your offense is statistically inferior.
In betting on this game, you are gambling on the whims of Mike Tomlin. Unless something wild happens in the Ravens-Browns game, the Steelers are likely locked into a Wild Card spot and would solely be playing for positioning as the fifth or sixth seed.
Tomlin may decide the No. 5 seed and a game in Houston is advantageous over a trip to Baltimore, meaning he would play all his starters. He’s also a coach who gets a lot of criticism in the preseason for playing his starters too much. Could that wash over into the season finale?
Without knowing all the details, putting too much money on either side of this contest is risky. If you want to play the percentages, we know the Bengals will have something to play for, regardless. Thus, if you want to bet on this game this early in the week or before the line shifts, take the Bengals -2.5. They can compete with full-strength Steelers and should crush a reduced-strength opponent.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Steelers 27 (if starters play); Bengals 30, Steelers 10 (if starters do not play)
Pick: Lean Bengals -2.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-14)
- Moneyline: Saints +650; Buccaneers -1000
- Total: 44
This line is another that demonstrates the wide difference in motivations for this game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know that a win clinches the NFC South, while the New Orleans Saints gain very little from a win other than a good feeling.
The way the NFL schedules Week 18 means that we know there will be a desire for the Saints to beat their division rival with question marks surrounding the franchise and an interim head coach.
However, we just saw this Saints team get beaten comfortably at home by the Las Vegas Raiders. If Derek Carr can play, this game becomes more of a contest, and I would lean towards taking New Orleans laying the 14 points. Carr will want to leave a good feeling around this franchise before an offseason that will see a new head coach come in.
Even with Carr, the Buccaneers are the better team, but by 14 points? That feels too much. This might be another early-week tease candidate, taking the line down below 10 points. If Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener is starting, you can then lay points with the Buccaneers as well.
The Saints’ defense has allowed 59 points in the last two games and gave up 51 to the Buccaneers earlier this year. Tampa Bay’s offense is better than either of the two New Orleans has faced in the last two weeks, putting the over in play — especially if Carr ends up playing.
The risk in taking the over is that the Buccaneers could bench starters if they lead by two or three touchdowns entering the fourth quarter. However, their defense is never far from a total meltdown, and their last three games have all gone over 45 points. Another option is a same game parlay teasing the line down to below Buccaneers -10 and the total down to 38.
Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Saints 10
Pick: Buccaneers -14 or -8 in a teaser. Over 44 or over 38 in a teaser
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
- Moneyline: Giants +154; Eagles -185
- Total: 43
The line here tells you that the sportsbooks cannot get a read on what the Philadelphia Eagles will do this week. They are locked into the No. 2 seed, but they have a running back in Saquon Barkley who is just 100 yards from the rushing record.
Could we see the Eagles send Barkley out there and force-feed him the ball so he can get the record at home against his former team?
That would be incredibly risky and costly if Barkley or a starting offensive lineman gets hurt because the New York Giants will almost certainly load the box and try to stop him at all costs. That could give the Eagles some easy passing plays and mean that this game ends up looking really weird to an observer with no idea of the context.
If the Eagles rest all their starters, we just saw the Giants prove they’re not simply tanking and are looking to prove a point. Their coach is fighting for his job, and a dominant performance in their rival’s stadium to finish with two wins on the bounce would set them into the offseason with a nice feeling.
Even if Barkley and the starting offensive line play, the Eagles will likely bench them the moment he beats the record. That could mean we see a weird situation where Philadelphia goes to all backups. But even then, that unit should be competitive with the Giants. It sounds crazy to say, but Philadelphia’s backups might actually be better than New York’s starters in some areas.
This is a tough game to read because if the Eagles’ backups play all game, this could be a shootout like we just saw in MetLife. Equally, we could see both teams play this very bland. I lean to the Giants because I want to believe that Nick Sirianni makes the smart decision and doesn’t risk any of his starters.
Prediction: Giants 23, Eagles 20
Pick: Lean Giants +4
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Bills -135; Patriots +114
- Total: 41
This is another weird game because the Buffalo Bills have no reason to play their starters other than to keep some rhythm going and to pad Josh Allen’s stats. Whether Allen suits up could depend on how much of a clinic Lamar Jackson puts on Saturday. If Jackson looks great, then the Bills may want to give Allen a showcase to remind voters just how good he is too.
On the other hand, we have a New England Patriots team that knows if they lose, they will have the No. 1 overall pick. But I’m not sure they will care all that much.
New England has found its quarterback in Drake Maye, so other than holding that first pick for ransom, does it matter whether they pick first or elsewhere inside the top five? They should care, but with players and a head coach fighting for their careers, the Patriots aren’t going to willingly tank.
We saw the Patriots play the Bills close in Week 15, and there is every chance Jerod Mayo and his team will want to make a statement after being booed and jeered at home in a national spotlight in Week 17.
The Patriots getting 2.5 points is the play here against an opponent they seemed to have the number of at times on the road just two weeks ago, and one who is going to be playing bland, safe football before the playoffs.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Bills 16
Pick: Patriots +2.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10)
- Moneyline: Bears +340; Packers -440
- Total: 41
The game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears could be one of the most competitive on Sunday of Week 18. This rivalry has a lot of bad feelings around it, and the Packers still have seeding to play for, which should not be underestimated.
If the Packers finish as the No. 7 seed, they’ll head to Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend and then either Detroit or Minnesota in the Divisional Round. As the sixth seed, they could head to Los Angeles or Tampa Bay and then potentially to Philadelphia.
The difference there should not be underestimated.
The metrics make Green Bay by far the better team on offense and also slightly better on defense. The Packers should win this game with ease, and we just saw them crush an equally inept Saints team 34-0 in Week 15.
The only slight risk is that the Packers get up by three touchdowns or see the Washington Commanders winning big and bench their starters. That would open up the potential of a backdoor cover for the Bears or even an outright win.
The narratives here are hard to predict because they could flip mid-game. The under might be the best play since we’ve seen how hopeless the Bears’ offense has looked, having topped 20 points just once since their Week 7 bye. Meanwhile, the Packers could throw in the towel at any point.
Prediction: Packers 17, Bears 14
Pick: Under 41
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Texans +180; Titans -218
- Total: 36.5
The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans game is another odd one this week. The Texans have absolutely nothing to play for, so other than letting some of their starters play a little to keep in rhythm, they should probably play backups throughout. DeMeco Ryans indicated that would not be the case, as they need reps, but it is hard to believe they will go all out.
Meanwhile, the Titans could also end up picking first if they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills. At this point, we should be long past expecting teams to tank for draft picks. We’ve seen it time and again this season, and it will likely be the same for Tennessee. Brian Callahan has too much still to prove as a head coach and whoever he puts at quarterback will be desperate to prove that they deserve a role in some form in 2025.
However, this is a game where teams may lean on the run game to get through it as quickly as possible. The Texans will want this game to be as short as possible so they can get home to prepare for Wild Card Weekend, and Tennessee will have no reason to draw it out.
This could be a very quick game, and those tend to be low-scoring, as the total indicates.
Prediction: Titans 16, Texans 10
Pick: Under 36.5 and lean Titans -4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +180; Colts -218
- Total: 44.5
Despite nothing resting on this game, this could be one of the more competitive ones this weekend.
Whether it’s Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson under center, both are likely to play hard to make a case for their roles going forward. Similarly, Mac Jones is auditioning for a role in 2025, whether that be with the Jacksonville Jaguars or someone else.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been a disaster in recent weeks, as getting steamrolled by the Giants last week proves. The Jaguars could easily rack up some points here, but the question will be whether the Colts try to chase them.
I would be surprised if Jonathan Taylor or Brian Thomas Jr. played much in this game, as they have nothing to prove. And given the complete lack of anything riding on this game, the range of outcomes is wide. A 10-6 snooze fest that we forget exists is just as possible as a 70+ point thriller like we saw in MetLife between the Colts and Giants in Week 17.
Prediction: Colts 24, Jaguars 20
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Panthers +320; Falcons -410
- Total: 47.5
The toughest part about this matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons is figuring out which Panthers version will play. Carolina pushed teams close in Weeks 12-14, capitulated in Weeks 15 and 17, and ended the Arizona Cardinals season in Week 16. If the Panthers show up ready to compete, they could push the Atlanta Falcons all the way in this game.
In terms of the metrics, this game favors the Falcons, who are better offensively and defensively while also playing a significantly harder schedule. Yet, the metrics don’t accurately reflect how good this Panthers team can look when it is playing at its very best.
You have to believe that the Falcons are going to be willing to dig deeper than the Panthers, given their playoff lives rest in the balance. However, there’s also the factor that if they see the Buccaneers up big over the Saints, they could just shut it down and look to get out of the game as quickly as possible.
When you consider all the elements, I lean towards Carolina in a high-scoring game. Atlanta is vulnerable defensively but also has the ability to rack up points offensively. Whether it’s a close game or a back-door cover, the Panthers have more scenarios in their favor, but not enough for me to definitively play this.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Panthers 27
Pick: Lean Panthers +7.5 and Over 47.5
Washington Commanders (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Commanders -162; Cowboys +136
- Total: 45.5
The Commanders control their destiny in terms of the No. 6 seed. If they win, they have it under wraps and will head to either Los Angeles or Tampa Bay on Wild Card Weekend.
That is significantly easier than going into Philadelphia, so I expect Washington to play this game hard. Additionally, the Commanders will want to enact some revenge on the Dallas Cowboys after losing to them earlier this season.
We should expect the Cowboys to play hard, with several players looking to put strong performances on tape entering the offseason. However, with no Dak Prescott and no CeeDee Lamb, there is a serious lack of quality in this offense, and the Commanders won’t fear them.
Washington’s defense is prone to a collapse, especially against the run. The metrics tell us the Commanders should dominate, but they told us that last time out too.
Ultimately, the Commanders have more to play for, and that should tell enough that they can cover here. Yet, they’ll still be cautious about not suffering injuries, which could lead to them benching players if they see the Packers losing and know that the No. 6 seed is safe.
The side to take here is Washington -3, and I lean towards the under. The last game was a low-scoring bore-fest until a crazy last few minutes.
Prediction: Commanders 23, Cowboys 16
Pick: Commanders -3 and Under 45.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-8.5)
- Moneyline: Chiefs +360; Broncos -470
- Total: 39
The big question in this game is how the Kansas City Chiefs will approach it. Many are expecting them to rest all their key players, but that comes with some danger.
The rustiness element coming off a bye week is often discussed, and if the Chiefs rest all their player in this game, it will be a long layoff between competitive matches. Kansas City may not play until Jan. 18, which would be 24 days since they clinched the No. 1 seed.
If Kansas City does rest its starters, then the Denver Broncos should win by at least a touchdown. They have the motivation factor and should have the quality advantage. The Chiefs’ starters only just beat the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season, so in theory, their backups should lose on the road.
I’m just not sold that we don’t see some of Kansas City’s starters for at least a half.
Ultimately, the Broncos should still win because the Chiefs have no reason to try and win. They’re not chasing an unbeaten season and have no reason to risk injury to any key players. Therefore, even if KC’s starters play, it will be a very limited version of the offense, and their path to winning will be big defensive plays.
The under is the best play here, as the Chiefs’ offense has struggled at full strength and is facing a very good Broncos defense. Equally, if Denver gets up by a touchdown or more, I expect them to play a ball-control style of offense, knowing that their biggest risk is turnovers.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Chiefs 13
Pick: Under 39
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Chargers -245; Raiders +200
- Total: 41
The Los Angeles Chargers’ situation will be dictated based on what happens Saturday. If the Steelers win, then the No. 5 seed is out of reach. As a result, I would expect the Chargers to rest all their key players since they cannot fall to the No. 7 seed and would essentially be locked into the sixth seed with a trip to the AFC North winner on Wild Card Weekend.
If the Steelers lose, then I expect the Chargers to try and win. The fifth seed means a trip to a very mediocre Texans team, which feels much more winnable than a trip to Baltimore. I’d expect to see a number of LA’s starters in that scenario, and this line likely jumps to the Chargers as double-digit favorites.
The Las Vegas Raiders have proven they will fight until the end. They clearly like Antonio Pierce, and many of them are fighting for jobs in 2025. They’re not going to back off regardless of how the Chargers approach this one, so I would lean toward the Raiders covering the six points, as I believe they are competitive regardless.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Raiders 20
Pick: Lean Raiders +6
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Dolphins -135; Jets +114
- Total: 41.5
Naturally, a lot about this game depends on Tua Tagovailoa. Sure, the Miami Dolphins won in Week 17 with Tyler Huntley, but the New York Jets are a better football team than the Browns with Thompson-Robinson under center. With Tua playing, Miami should sweep the Jets aside, especially when you factor in motivation.
New York appeared to have thrown in the towel in Week 17. We should expect some kind of reaction from the Jets to that embarrassing performance in Buffalo. I expect them to want to give their fans something to be excited about, and Miami is a significantly easier team to face than the Bills.
Still, the body language and comments coming out of the locker room make you think they are just ready to pack up and go home.
Tua playing is no guarantee, and there’s no way that I am laying points with Huntley on the road this week. An even half-competent offense could have pushed the Dolphins and potentially beaten them last week. The Jets are still half-competent, but how long the fight will last is questionable. If Huntley plays, the under is probably the play here.
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Jets 14 (if Tua is out)
Pick: Under 41.5 (if Tua is out) and Dolphins -2.5 (if Tua plays)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Seahawks -142; Rams +120
- Total: 41.5
The Los Angeles Rams clinched the division from their sofa on Sunday thanks to the strength of victory tiebreaker being confirmed in their direction. That means the motivation here should be a little lower, but not much.
The difference between being a third and fourth seed is significant. As the No. 3 seed, not only would they avoid either the Minnesota Vikings or Detroit Lions on Wild Card Weekend, but they would also have a chance of hosting in the Divisional Round if the Eagles are upset in the first round.
Thus, I expect the Rams to at least try to put up a fight initially. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if they rested all their key players and tried to win with backups, but it might be one they regret later.
Under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald, the Seattle Seahawks will be playing for pride and proving a point. Barring a couple of sloppy losses, this could have been a playoff team, and they’ll want to end the year with a statement win.
The uncertainty over the Rams’ approach is likely why the Seahawks have been made favorites here. I think Los Angeles should play its starters, but I question if that’s the case. I lean toward Seattle laying the points, but I’m not willing to risk much capital on a game with this many unknowns.
Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20 (if Rams play starters); Seahawks 27, Rams 14 (if Rams bench starters)
Pick: Lean Seahawks -2.5
San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: 49ers -118; Cardinals -102
- Total: 47
This game is close to impossible to call because neither team has anything to play for, and both are evenly matched.
How the two teams play this game may tell us a lot about their feelings towards their coaches. Rumors have swirled around Kyle Shanahan in recent weeks, and Jonathan Gannon is far from locked in as secure. If both teams come out fighting hard, they’re doing it for their coach. But they could just as easily be ready to call it a day.
We may get a little more insight into how to judge this game after Monday Night Football. If the San Francisco 49ers simply capitulate, then I would jump on the Arizona Cardinals here. If the 49ers fight hard, then I’m waiting to see what happens throughout the week and how the line moves. Teams may shut down key players so as not to risk injury that could cost them time over the summer or in 2025.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Cardinals 23
Pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Vikings +124; Lions -148
- Total: 52
We’ll have to wait all weekend for Week 18’s showpiece event, but boy, should it be worth it. The last time the Lions and Vikings met, the game was won on a field goal for Detroit in the final minute after a ding-dong contest that swung one way and the other.
The metrics peg these two sides as relatively even, with the Lions having a slight advantage overall. Both have top-five defenses on the season, with the Vikings narrowly ahead. Detroit’s offense ranks top two entering Monday Night Football, while Minnesota sits 10th. The Lions have also played the 12th-toughest schedule compared to the 21st for the Vikings.
All told, this line is right where I would have put it, with the Lions as favorites by a field goal. Yet, when you start playing out scenarios, more scenarios favor Detroit.
In a tight game simulation, it is essentially 50-50, but if you’re projecting a blowout, that leans heavily toward the Lions. With home-field advantage, you could make the case that this line should be Lions -3.5 to -5, so for that reason, I lean toward Detroit.
The last meeting between the two saw 60 points scored, but the total is already high at 52. Two of the Vikings’ last six games have gone over that, and their defense has allowed over 20 points in five of their last six. Three of the Lions’ last six have gone over 52, and their defense has allowed over 20 points in three of their last five.
A teaser with the Vikings +8.5 and the total going over 46 might be the best way to attack this game. It should be a tight high-scoring affair, and that teaser satisfies both of those.
Prediction: Lions 30, Vikings 27
Pick: Lean Lions -2.5 and over 52; Teaser: Vikings +8.5 and over 46