With just two more weeks of the NFL regular season, our NFL betting opportunities are dwindling. After Monday Night Football, just 45 more NFL games remain in the season, so we need to soak it all in over the next six weeks.
To celebrate, the NFL has given us several standalone games this week, with eight of the 16 matchups being played in their own window. That naturally opens more betting considerations as these standalone games are more tempting to bet on than the bigger slates.
Therefore, ahead of a massive week of football, let’s use our Power Rankings and PFN metrics to preview all 16 games in Week 17 and give our NFL picks and predictions across the week.
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Moneyline: Chiefs -142; Steelers +120
- Total: 43
This game has turned into Christmas Day gold for NFL schedule-makers, with both teams fighting for something in the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs know that avoiding a loss will earn them the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a week to play, while the Pittsburgh Steelers need to win to stay ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North race.
It’s fair to say that neither team has been entirely convincing throughout this season, reflected in their seventh (KC) and 12th (PIT) rankings in our PR+. The Chiefs’ offense and defense both rank 10th on the season, but they’ve played the third-easiest schedule, making those numbers underwhelming. The Steelers are seventh on defense and 23rd offensively, having played the eighth-easiest schedule this season.
Our metrics lean towards the Chiefs on the neutral field but have them essentially even in Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ defense, which relies heavily on pass rush, should help them match up well with Kansas City. The biggest concern will be whether Russell Wilson and the offense can score enough points.
The total is almost exactly where I would have placed it for this game, and the line is pretty close. I lean towards Pittsburgh getting the points, but it’s tight, so unless you want to tease the Steelers up to getting over a touchdown and take the total down below 40, it’s hard to find a play for this one.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Steelers 20
Pick: Pass
Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Houston Texans
- Moneyline: Ravens -205; Texans +170
- Total: 47
If this game follows the metrics, it should be lopsided on Christmas Day. However, the Ravens have had a knack this season for making things look harder than they should.
Baltimore is a top-five team in our rankings, while the Houston Texans are a middle-of-the-pack group. The game being played in Houston evens it up a little, but not significantly enough to make a big difference.
The Ravens are the better team offensively by a considerable distance (2 vs. 25), while the Texans have a slight advantage defensively (5 vs. 13). Additionally, Houston has played a significantly easier schedule to this point, so that has to be taken into account when sizing up those numbers.
Taking the Ravens -4 is a fairly comfortable play based on the metrics. Baltimore has been their own worst enemy at times, but they should have too much for a Texans team that has been far from convincing.
Prediction: Ravens 27, Texans 20
Pick: Ravens -4
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Chicago Bears
- Moneyline: Seahawks -175; Bears +145
- Total: 42.5
The Seattle Seahawks are in a must-win situation in the final two weeks, and that should be a huge motivating factor for them against the Chicago Bears this week. The Bears showed some signs of life on offense against the Detroit Lions in Week 16, but generally, their play since Matt Eberflus was fired after Thanksgiving has been as flat as a pancake.
Seattle is the better team, both offensively and defensively, and they’ve played a similarly graded schedule to Chicago. Therefore, it’s easy to look at this game as a Seahawks win.
Seattle is motivated to win and is the superior team across the board. Being on the road in a potentially cold-weather game is not ideal, but the Seahawks are used to playing in adverse conditions.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
Pick: Seahawks -3
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Chargers -230; Patriots +190
- Total: 43
This is a horrible spot for the Los Angeles Chargers. Heading into a cold Foxborough for a 10 a.m. body clock game is as bad as it gets for a West Coast team that lives in a warm climate and plays their home games in a dome.
The metrics tell you that the Chargers should win comfortably, but the intangibles of the game tell you that it could be much closer than the raw numbers suggest.
Los Angeles is slightly better offensively and significantly better defensively and has similar special teams and SOS metrics to the New England Patriots. They are also coming off extra rest, having played last Thursday, and know that a win clinches a playoff spot, allowing them some rest and recuperation in Week 18.
The cold weather and early kickoff give me pause, and I would prefer to only be laying a touchdown. Still, the Chargers are the right side here.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Patriots 17
Pick: Chargers -4.5
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
- Moneyline: Broncos +140; Bengals -166
- Total: 48.5
This could easily be the best game of the entire week, with both teams having something to play for and the ability to step up in big moments.
This is a typical strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness matchup when it comes to offensive and defensive matchups. However, the Denver Broncos have had a couple of defensive stumbles recently, which raises some red flags against an offense like the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Broncos are the better team, and Cincinnati’s weather will not phase them. However, Denver’s loss to the Chargers raised some eyebrows. The Bengals are a team that will fight until the very end, so Denver had better be prepared. We’ve seen the Broncos’ defense wilt under the pressure of good offenses at times this year and even sometimes against bad ones.
This game feels like it comes down to the final possession, and I tend to avoid picking a side on those. However, they also tend to have shootout vibes, and a 30-27 type game is very much in the realm of possible outcomes here.
I’m taking the over here, as well as looking to tease the Broncos up to +9 and the total down to 42.5.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Broncos 27
Pick: Over 48.5 and a teaser of Broncos +9 and Over 42.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +200; Rams -245
- Total: 49
The Arizona Cardinals’ playoff hopes are dead, which significantly changes this game’s complexion. No longer is this a game with playoff implications on both sides, so it’s tough to know how the Cardinals may react.
Arizona absolutely annihilated the Los Angeles Rams in the last matchup, but that was a very different Rams team in the first month of the season.
These are two very evenly matched teams on paper. They rank identically across the board, with the only real advantage for the Cardinals on special teams. That makes this spread feel a touch too high, especially given that the Rams do not have a particularly great home-field advantage.
The Cardinals’ lack of motivation makes this a really tough game to judge. An offensive explosion is not out of the question, though, so taking the over is the way to play this one. A nice parlay/teaser here might be to combine the Rams’ moneyline with an over in the low 40s.
Prediction: Rams 30, Cardinals 27
Pick: Over 49
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Jets +360; Bills -470
- Total: 47.5
The New York Jets seem to be playing harder now than they did when they were actually in the playoff picture, and that will make them a tough out for the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo nearly made a mess of their Week 16 matchup with the Patriots, demonstrating that you have to take the metrics with a pinch of salt in these divisional games.
Teams tend to match up more evenly with divisional opponents than other teams, so look for the Jets to play this one somewhat closely. Based on that, this line seems too high, but there’s no way I am ruining my Christmas weekend by betting on the Jets. Maybe teasing this game down to Bills -3.5 and pairing it with another game is the way to go.
Prediction: Bills 27, Jets 20
Pick: Bills -3.5 in a teaser
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
- Moneyline: Titans -102; Jaguars -118
- Total: 39.5
We saw the other week how evenly matched these two teams are. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a slightly better offense, while the Tennessee Titans have a slightly better defense.
Overall, it’s very even. Both teams are starting backup quarterbacks for this one, making it messier than ever.
The sportsbooks have essentially made this a pick ’em, and I couldn’t agree more. The last game between these two was an offensive disaster, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more of the same.
I lean towards taking the under, but this is another game where I don’t want my Christmas weekend ruined betting on bad teams.
Prediction: Jaguars 17, Titans 16
Pick: Lean under 39.5
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2)
- Moneyline: Packers +105; Vikings -125
- Total: 48
Although the stakes are lower for the Green Bay Packers in Week 16 than they perhaps could have been, this game hasn’t lost any of its buzz. The Minnesota Vikings have to win to keep the pressure on Detroit, while the Packers should be desperate to avoid finishing as the No. 7 seed and a potential trip to Philadelphia, Detroit, or back to Minnesota.
The numbers tell you that there’s not much to choose between them. Green Bay is better offensively, while Minnesota is better defensively and on special teams. Yet, the Packers have also played a significantly tougher schedule than the Vikings.
The line is pretty much spot on, as the simulations put the most likely range of outcomes as a win by 3-5 points for either side. I lean towards the Packers, who appear to be peaking at the right time and getting back close to full health. This should be an entertaining game and a potential playoff matchup preview.
Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 23
Pick: Pass
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +110; Saints -130
- Total: 39.5
This is another one of those games where it’s hard to be particularly excited to bet on it. Neither side has been convincing, and the motivation of both teams, with their playoff hopes gone, is hard to judge. The New Orleans Saints are better in all three phases but have played a considerably easier schedule.
The line here seems pretty much spot-on, so unless you’re looking for an angle, this is a game I am going to pass with too many unknowns.
Prediction: Saints 23, Raiders 20
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts (-8) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Colts -455; Giants +350
- Total: 40.5
At first glance, this line may seem wild, but when you take into account the metrics and the motivational factors at play, it doesn’t seem that bad. However, the motivational aspect could be totally altered after Saturday’s games, as the Indianapolis Colts may not have a chance at the playoffs anymore.
The numbers tell you that the Colts are the better team, with the main advantage being offensively. Indianapolis has also played the harder schedule, further exacerbating their metrics advantage.
If you were picking this game today, knowing the Colts would still have a chance at the playoffs, then somewhere in the -7 region would be perfect. But it’s close to impossible to bet on this game ahead of time because of the impact of Saturday’s games on this one in particular.
Even if the Colts were eliminated on Saturday, you wouldn’t put it past this New York Giants team to lose by double digits to anyone with the way they are playing.
Prediction: Colts 23, Giants 10
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Panthers +285; Buccaneers -360
- Total: 48.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to bounce back in a big way after losing to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. They have ceded control of the NFC South back to the Atlanta Falcons, and a loss here could be enough to eliminate them if the Falcons win on Sunday Night Football.
When you look at the season metrics, the Buccaneers are by far the superior team, but the Carolina Panthers have played much better in the last 4-6 weeks. We already saw the Panthers play spoiler to a team in Week 16, and they’re just looking to win games and build good feelings. For that reason, there should be no concern about motivations.
This goes against the season-long metrics, but the way things are trending, I’m looking to take the Panthers laying the points. Over a touchdown is enough for me, but I would also look at teasing it up over 10 points as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Carolina wins outright.
With two mediocre defenses, the over is a solid play here as well.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 27
Pick: Panthers +7.5 and over 48.5
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Dolphins -250; Browns +205
- Total: 40.5
This is another game where events on Saturday could dictate how this game is played. If the Miami Dolphins are still alive in the playoff race, then I expect them to win comfortably over a Cleveland Browns team that was an offensive disaster in Week 16. The only real concern on that front is a meltdown from Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense against a good Browns defense.
I like this line if Miami is still in the playoff race, and the metrics support that. The Dolphins are significantly better offensively and only slightly worse defensively. They’ve also played a significantly easier schedule, but that’s not a major factor in a game where one team has the motivation and their starting quarterback versus a team counting down to the end of the season with their third-string QB.
There’s no way you can bet on this game this early in the week because things will change considerably if the Broncos and Chargers avoid defeat on Saturday. So, for now, I’m passing on this game. But I am snapping up the Dolphins laying anything less than a touchdown on Saturday evening or Sunday morning.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Browns 13
Pick: Dolphins anything below -7 if they still have playoff hopes
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +270; Eagles -340
- Total: 42.5
This game is massively complicated by the fact that Jalen Hurts is in the concussion protocol. If Hurts plays, then -7 is about the right line for this matchup. Yet, if he doesn’t, this game becomes close to a pick ’em between a frisky Cowboys team and a Philadelphia Eagles team that will be one hit from Tanner McKee under center.
The Eagles are the superior team offensively and defensively, but they have played a much easier schedule. Still, Philadelphia is significantly better defensively, and it’s hard to see Dallas being able to go toe-to-toe with Hurts and Saquon Barkley over four quarters.
There’s no real way of knowing how Hurts will progress through the concussion protocol, so betting on either side of this game is essentially taking a 50-50 guess on his status. If he clears the protocol, I would take the Eagles at anything -7 or below and then tease down anything up to -10 by six points.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17 (with Hurts), Eagles 20, Cowboys 17 (without Hurts)
Pick: Eagles -7 if Hurts plays
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-5)
- Moneyline: Falcons +170; Commanders -205
- Total: 47
This is an intriguing game on Sunday Night Football between two rookie first-round quarterbacks. The Falcons won convincingly last week over the Giants, but the Washington Commanders are a very different proposition.
Washington has the superior offense, defense, and special teams but has played a much easier schedule. Yet, it feels much safer to back Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn than Raheem Morris and Michael Penix Jr. in his second start.
This game should be a ferocious one, with both teams knowing they need to win for their playoff futures. Both defenses have struggled at times this year, so the over becomes extremely intriguing as well.
My money here goes on the over, and I lean towards the Commanders -5. Additionally, I will look at some combination of the moneyline with the over on a total below 45, depending on the odds I can get in pairing them.
Prediction: Washington 30, Falcons 24
Pick: Over 47 and Commanders ML + Over 42-45
Detroit Lions (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
- Moneyline: Lions -198; 49ers +164
- Total: 51.5
The NFL schedule-makers probably felt they had laid a perfect Week 17 Monday Night Football game when they scheduled this one. Unfortunately, the San Francisco 49ers are a shell of their former selves and out of the playoff picture.
In theory, this should be a walkover for a Lions team that could have a chance to clinch the division and No. 1 seed with a win. The metrics are firmly in favor of Detroit, with an advantage in all three phases of the game.
The 49ers’ schedule has been slightly harder, but not to a point where it significantly alters the way we look at the massive gulf between the two teams in terms of the numbers.
Lions -4 feels a bit too good to be true, and I am going to take it with pleasure at this point. Usually, a line like this that feels too good to be true backfires, but all my numbers tell me that Detroit should win comfortably.
Prediction: Lions 27, 49ers 17
Pick: Lions -4