With the bye weeks over, Week 15 marks the beginning of the NFL’s full-on sprint to the finish line, with all 32 teams in action in each of the next four weeks. That means we once again have 16 games to break down, and there are some monster games on the slate, with potential impact on first-round byes and home-field advantage.
Using our PFN metrics of PR+, Offense+, and Defense+, we will break down all 16 games and analyze how we see each playing out. We will then give our NFL picks and predictions, highlighting which side we will take straight up and what potential bets could be worth making in the Week 15 slate.
NFL Week 15 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Rams +110; 49ers -130
- Total: 49
This game has taken on a very different complexion after the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers’ two important wins in Week 13. Both teams remain very much in the fight for the NFC West, which could go down to the final week. Additionally, all four teams sit very close together in our PR+ standings, ranging from 12th to 15th, with no one separating them.
Both teams have been better offensively than defensively this year. They rank inside the top 12 on offense, with the Rams having the slight edge at eighth overall, compared to 11th for the 49ers.
However, that flips on defense, with San Francisco ranking 20th and LA down in 26th. The Rams have also been slightly better on special teams and have played the marginally harder schedule to date.
This is a very tough game to call, but with both offenses finding some form this week, a shootout could develop if the weather is kind in Santa Clara on Thursday. This game has the feeling of being won by whoever has the ball last, which is a tough spot to call. However, the total seems fairly juicy, with two good offenses and two below-average defenses.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Rams 27
Pick: Over 49
Baltimore Ravens (-14) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Ravens -1200; Giants +750
- Total: 43.5
If the sportsbooks and the metrics are to be believed, this should be a very one-sided matchup. The Baltimore Ravens are significantly better than the New York Giants in all aspects other than special teams. Baltimore ranks inside the top 10 of our PR+, while the Giants are down at the bottom.
With that said, the Ravens have choked in these spots a couple of times already this year, losing to the Raiders in Week 2 and the Browns in Week 8. It’s unlikely that would happen again, but there is a potential “bye week” factor for Baltimore’s offense, and it gets off to a slow start.
I never like laying the 14 points, but backing the Ravens is the play. Teasing them down below 10 points and combining it with another play on the slate is the best way to go with this one. The total is a tough one to call because the Ravens could easily explode for 30+ points but could equally limp to 20 if their offense is rusty to open the game.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Giants 10
Pick: Ravens in a teaser at anything below -10
Washington Commanders (-7) at New Orleans Saints
- Moneyline: Commanders -375; Saints +295
- Total: 43.5
After what we just saw from the New Orleans Saints in Week 14, plus the added uncertainty around Derek Carr, the Washington Commanders very much appear to be the play this week. They have the advantage regarding the metrics, ranking well ahead of the Saints on offense and just below them defensively.
Trusting the Commanders has been a tough thing to do in recent weeks, but they did just beat up on a bad Titans team before the bye. The biggest risks are that the Commanders just look a little flat coming off their bye, and their rookie quarterback wilts in the atmosphere of the Superdome.
All signs point towards this being a relatively comfortable win for Washington. However, you could tease the line down below three points if you’re looking to add some protection.
The total would be a play to the over if we knew Carr was healthy. It’s not out of the question that the Commanders score 35+ points, but a Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler-led Saints could struggle to muster even 10.
Prediction: Commanders 30, Saints 10
Pick: Commanders -7
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +110; Texans -130
- Total: 47
This could prove to be a sneakily important game in the AFC playoff picture. If the Houston Texans lose and the Colts win in Denver, then the AFC South is very much back in play. That would put the Texans at risk of falling into the Wild Card race, and then a head-to-head win here could be vital for either team.
The metrics tell us that this is a fairly even game overall. The Miami Dolphins have the better offense (ranking 14th vs. 24th), but Houston has the better defense (sixth vs. 12th).
This game could come down to a special-teams play, and the Texans have been more consistent over the course of the season. Additionally, Houston has played a slightly harder schedule, so they may prove to be more battle-tested.
This is another game that could easily come down to the wire. The raw offense and defense numbers say to back the Dolphins, but their schedule has been a cupcake, and they haven’t looked anywhere near convincing against half-decent teams.
This is probably a game to pass, especially when you consider there is some scheme familiarity between the two head coaches.
Prediction: Texans 24, Dolphins 23
Pick: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Chiefs -310; Browns +250
- Total: 42.5
The Kansas City Chiefs just keep finding ways to win, but it does feel like the wheels could fall off at any moment. Patrick Mahomes is getting beaten up on a weekly basis and now has to go against Myles Garrett. The Cleveland Browns have proven to be a tougher proposition at home than on the road in recent weeks, going 2-1 at home since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback.
In terms of the metrics, the Chiefs have a big advantage on offense, ranking inside the top 10, whereas the Browns sit in the bottom 10. Defensively, Cleveland has a slight advantage, with a major one on special teams and having played a significantly tougher schedule.
It’s proving impossible to assume Kansas City will do anything the easy way at this point. In their last five games, the Chiefs are 4-1 with a point differential of zero, thanks to three wins by just two points and one win by three. That includes struggles against both the Panthers and the Raiders, who both rank in a similar area of our PR+ standings to the Browns.
Amazingly, it feels like we have to pass on a game in which Mahomes and the Chiefs are laying less than a touchdown to a 3-10 team with nothing left to play for. One way you could look to play this is with the Chiefs in a moneyline parlay or teasing it below three points, but KC is not playing well at all despite being 12-1.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Browns 20
Pick: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
- Moneyline: Bengals -225; Titans +185
- Total: 48.5
This is a really weird game because there’s a lot at play here, but likely very little for either side to actually play for. Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan will face his former team, one he knows very well. However, that goes both ways and could mean we see a really intriguing chess match as the two teams try to fake and bluff each other a little.
There is then also the aspect that Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor might be coaching for his job while Callahan is likely to be safe regardless of the outcome when his side is already eliminated from the playoffs.
How much will pride in facing his old team play into Callahan’s game planning? Or will he keep his tricks close to the vest so as not to put anything on the film ahead of 2025?
Ultimately, there are many variables. In terms of pure metrics, the Bengals are better offensively and on special teams, but the Titans are better defensively and have played a much tougher schedule.
The line feels lopsided to the Bengals, but they have beaten four teams ranked in the bottom 10 of our rankings by over 10 points per game. Passing is probably the smart play.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
New York Jets (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Moneyline: Jets -175; Jaguars +145
- Total: 39.5
We’ve seen some signs of life from Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets offense in recent weeks. In their last three games, they are averaging 24.7 points per game. Unfortunately, they’ve been let down by a defense that has allowed 28.7 points per game in the same span.
Still, they should be too much for a Mac Jones-led Jacksonville Jaguars team that has the highest score of 10 points in games he has started. The problem with the Jets, however, is that now that they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, we have no idea what to expect from them in a meaningless Week 15 game for their veterans.
The total feels low, but who knows? When Jones starts, the Jaguars average under eight points per game, and he didn’t look that efficient against a fading Titans defense. Expecting Jones to score more than 13 points would be ambitious, and New York is not a lock to get to 27. The under is the only intriguing play here.
Prediction: Jets 20, Jaguars 13
Pick: Under 39.5
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-1)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -102; Panthers -118
- Total: 43.5
The fight that both of these teams have demonstrated in the last few weeks has been admirable, making this game more intriguing than you might expect for two teams entering Monday with a combined 8-17 record.
This game has a real coin-flip feel to it. Regarding metrics, there has been very little between the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers in recent weeks. Both have had their woes on defense, but neither has an offense that you would want to trust.
This is another game that makes sense to pass on unless you have a real yearning to back one side or the other.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Cowboys 21
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Colts +170; Broncos -205
- Total: 43
What a matchup this could prove to be in Denver on Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Denver Broncos look to continue a winning streak that has given them a loose grip on an AFC Wild Card spot. The result of this game could have huge ramifications as a potential tiebreaker in the Wild Card picture as well as ripple effects on three or four other teams.
In pure metrics, the Broncos are the superior team across the board. Their offense and special teams are slightly better than the Colts’, and Denver’s defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL, compared to 24th for Indianapolis.
However, the Broncos have also played a much easier schedule, allowing them to pad those stats and offering more opportunities for consistency.
Anthony Richardson is an X-factor every single week and has one of the widest range of outcomes of any player in the NFL. Denver is a much more consistent group overall, but we saw the chaos that can occur in the matchup against the Browns on Monday Night Football in Week 13.
The metrics say that the Broncos laying less than a touchdown is the play, but this game has the potential to be very tense with a lot on the line.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Colts 17
Pick: Broncos -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Steelers +185; Eagles -225
- Total: 44
At this time last season, we saw a monumental collapse from the Philadelphia Eagles. And in Week 14, we saw a little wobble from them against the Panthers.
Carolina wasn’t quite good enough to turn that wobble into a loss for the Eagles, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are a more complete team that will capitalize if Philadelphia looks sluggish again.
The Eagles are the better team offensively and defensive according to the numbers, but not by a wide margin. The Steelers are a significantly better special teams group and have played a slightly tougher schedule, but again, not by much.
The metrics tell us this could be a tight and tense battle, with both teams having a lot on the line only adding to the atmosphere around the game.
The Eagles appear to be the better team overall, but the Ravens and Panthers have demonstrated a blueprint for taking them down, and the Steelers have the personnel to execute it. We should expect Philadelphia to get somewhere in the 20-24 point margin at least, but serious questions remain as to whether Pittsburgh can match or better that against a good Eagles defense.
I lean towards the Eagles laying the points, and the metrics say that is how this game should go, especially with them at home. The total is pretty close to the right spot, with a lean towards the under.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Steelers 17
Pick: Lean Eagles -4.5 and Under 44
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-3)
- Moneyline: Bills +124; Lions -148
- Total: 53.5
The game in Detroit looks to be a super showdown between two incredible offenses. Both scored over 30 points this week in tense shootouts, with contrasting results.
The metrics say that the Detroit Lions are the better team across the board, with the Buffalo Bills lagging behind them by some distance defensively and on special teams. The Lions have also played a slightly tougher schedule.
This game has the makings of being a high-scoring one, which makes the line tough to judge. Those exciting back-and-forth type games are often won on the final possession, so any line below seven points is tough to play.
Yet, this total feels too low, with both teams capable of scoring 30 points at will. Take the over and consider looking for value by taking it up as high as 60 if you’re feeling adventurous.
Prediction: Lions 35, Bills 33
Pick: Over 53.5
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots +240; Cardinals -298
- Total: 45
The Arizona Cardinals’ season is falling apart since their bye, with three straight losses, including two to the Seahawks. They have to stop the rot this week with the New England Patriots coming to town, or their playoff hopes are all but done.
The metrics tell you they should, with the superior offense, equal ranking defensively, and having played a much harder schedule to get those numbers.
The Patriots have been a tough out for teams this season, but the Cardinals have proven in the last six weeks that they can beat up below-average teams. If Arizona cannot cover this one by more than a touchdown at home, then the alarm will no longer be faintly ringing; it will be a blaring siren screaming out across the state.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Patriots 16
Pick: Cardinals -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +120; Chargers -142
- Total: 46.5
This is another Week 15 matchup with huge playoff implications. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took control of the NFC South in Week 14, but their grip over the Falcons is loose. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers are 1-2 in the last three weeks and are now looking nervously over their shoulder with just a two-game lead over the Colts.
The game in SoFi Stadium will be one of those strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness matchups. The Buccaneers’ offense will have to try and crack a very good Chargers’ defense, while Tampa’s defense (which has struggled for most of the year) will get its biggest test since the bye.
Based on recent weeks, the Buccaneers getting points seems like the play here. The Chargers have struggled for any kind of consistency offensively, but they have faced a much harder schedule. Equally, Tampa Bay has done its best to try and lose games, despite facing teams ranked inside the bottom 10.
Ultimately, this might be a game to pass on, with a number of uncertain elements.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Chargers 21
Pick: Lean Buccaneers +2.5
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks
- Moneyline: Packers -148; Seahawks +124
- Total: 47
Sunday Night Football looks set to be a huge matchup with major playoff implications for both teams. The Green Bay Packers desperately need to win if they are to have any lingering NFC North hopes, while the Seattle Seahawks need to win to ensure they remain atop the NFC West entering Week 16.
The metrics give the edge to the Packers, who have a superior offense but trail behind the Seahawks in defense and special teams. Green Bay has faced the second-hardest schedule to date, though, while Seattle’s played the 13th-hardest.
Those numbers reinforce why the Packers are narrow road favorites, especially with 10 days of rest. They will enter the game having played just one game in the previous 14 days.
When you watch the film, the Packers look more convincing, which is reinforced by their better record despite a tougher schedule. The total is in the right spot, with both teams likely to be in the 20-30-point range this week. Green Bay won’t be phased by conditions in Seattle, which is a nice comfort element for them.
Prediction: Packers 27, Seahawks 20
Pick: Packers -3
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
- Moneyline: Bears +260; Vikings -325
- Total: 43.5
A change at head coach didn’t suddenly change the way that the Chicago Bears played football, as they were blown away in the first half for the second week running. Thomas Brown couldn’t inspire a second-half comeback this week, so there was no opportunity for him to prove his coaching mettle in a crunch spot.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings vanquished the Falcons thanks to a second-half offensive explosion.
When it comes to the metrics, the Vikings are better on offense, defense, and special teams while only playing a marginally easier schedule. That points to them winning this game comfortably, as they looked on course to do in Week 12 when they led 24-10 with 7:30 remaining in the fourth quarter.
These divisional games always have a bit of a sting to them, and Minnesota hasn’t been the most convincing team in recent weeks. Laying seven points is a lot, and I feel much more comfortable with them as part of an ML parlay or in a teaser with the line at -2.5 or lower.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 20
Pick: Vikings -2.5 or lower in a teaser
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Falcons -238; Raiders +195
- Total: 43.5
The Atlanta Falcons need to fix things quickly. They are on a four-game losing streak and have lost control of the NFC South. Fortunately, they get a Las Vegas Raiders team that will be starting their third quarterback in a four-week span on Monday Night Football in Week 15.
Desmond Ridder getting the opportunity to start against the team that drafted him and then traded him away last offseason is somewhat poetic.
The Falcons’ metrics haven’t been pretty all season, but they are better overall than the Raiders’. The main reason for that is the offensive numbers, with Atlanta inside the top 15 and Las Vegas ranking fifth from last. The Raiders have better defensive and special teams numbers, but the offense is the biggest factor here.
Atlanta should win, and facing their former QB won’t hurt them, given that he didn’t play for them in this current scheme. If the Falcons don’t win this game and do so convincingly, they will virtually crown the Buccaneers as the NFC South winners if Tampa Bay wins in Los Angeles on Sunday.
The under could be very much in play here with Vegas’ offense unlikely to offer much substance with Ridder at quarterback. He hasn’t been with the team for long, so it’s possible that the Raiders will use a paired-back version of their offense in Week 15.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Raiders 13
Pick: Falcons -4.5