Week 14 will see the final set of byes for the season, with six teams resting in preparation for the final run to the postseason. That leaves us with 13 games to analyze for the week ahead. The action kicks off Thursday night with a blockbuster NFC North matchup that has plenty of playoff ramifications.
Using our PFN metrics of PR+, Offense+, and Defense+, we will break down all 13 games and analyze how we see each playing out. We will then give our NFL picks and predictions, highlighting which side we will take straight up and what potential bets could be worth making in the Week 14 slate.
NFL Week 14 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Packers +154; Lions -185
- Total: 51
It’s nice to have a Thursday Night Football game where we don’t have to worry too much about concerns surrounding short rest, with both teams having played on Thanksgiving. Both teams also rank inside the top five of our PR+, but the Detroit Lions remain a class above the rest of the pack not named the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Lions have the edge both offensively and defensively in this matchup. Their inability to kill off the Chicago Bears last Sunday is a concern. However, a couple of low-repeatability plays (fumble and missed field goal) meant the Bears were still in the game with a chance to win in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Those mistakes don’t undo what has been a fairly comprehensive set of performances in recent weeks.
We are only a month removed from the Lions beating the Green Bay Packers by 10 points on the road, albeit with a hobbled Jordan Love. This line seems low, given the Lions’ dominance these past few weeks, but this should be Detroit’s sternest test since Week 7 in Minnesota.
Lions -3.5 is the play, and while I lean under with the total, both offenses are good enough to make this a shootout.
Prediction: Lions 24, Packers 17
Pick: Lions -3.5
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13)
- Moneyline: Panthers +500; Eagles -700
- Total: 45.5
The Carolina Panthers have been exciting since coming out of their bye, pushing both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all the way. However, they face a more complete team in the Eagles this week.
Philadelphia ranks inside the top 10 offensively and defensively, which is a big step up on the Chiefs and Buccaneers, who have had their defensive issues.
There is little doubt that Philadelphia to win outright is the right side to be on, but there’s very little value in the moneyline in this game, even as part of a parlay. Laying 13 points is a lot, but the Eagles have won four of their last seven by more than that margin, and barring a late score from the Baltimore Ravens this week, would have beaten another top-10 team in our rankings by double digits.
If you read this article regularly, you’ll know I love a teaser, and that’s where I am going here. Take the Eagles down as close to -7 as you can realistically do based on the odds offered by your sportsbook, and either pair it with the over by taking the total down to 39.5 or another game I recommend here as a teaser.
In terms of the total, the Eagles have scored 28 or more points five times in the last seven and 24+ points in all of those games. The Panthers have allowed 56 points in the last two weeks and scored 50 of their own. The Eagles should stifle the Panthers’ offense, but they could score 30+ all on their own this week. I don’t love the total at 45.5, but bringing it down below 40 as part of a teaser is interesting.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Panthers 17
Pick: Eagles -7 in a teaser and over 39.5 in a teaser
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Jets +235; Dolphins -290
- Total: 45.5
The game between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets carries significant weight because playoff spots are on the line. Both franchises are used to meeting late in the season with the division already out of reach, and for the Jets, this is realistically more about pride than anything else. For the Dolphins, it’s not mathematically an elimination game, but it is essentially the Last Chance Saloon.
The metrics tell you that the Dolphins are the superior team here offensively, while they are essentially even defensively. Throw in home-field advantage, and it makes a lot of sense that Miami is favored by sportsbooks. However, -6.5 is much higher than I expected, with my projected line being around -3.5 or -4.
The line is that high takes this out of an against-the-spread (ATS) play and puts it more into the teaser or ML parlay region. The total leans towards the under, with both defenses being top-12 units this season, but it’s right around the point where we would consider it to be “in play.”
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 17
Pick: Dolphins as part of an ML parlay or a teaser at their ML price
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +235; Steelers -290
- Total: 42
Just 17 days after they battled on Thursday Night Football in Cleveland, these two teams meet in Pittsburgh for the return matchup. Despite the Cleveland Browns causing an upset last time around, the Pittsburgh Steelers are understandably favored.
The metrics on these two teams are somewhat hard to judge because several of the Browns’ offensive numbers have been with Deshaun Watson under center. Even when you just take the Jameis Winston games, the numbers are all over the place week-to-week, and it’s hard to project which version of the Winston experience you’re going to get. Defensively, they are essentially even, so the edge goes to the Steelers.
The line being set at -6.5 is understandable, but it feels high. My projected line for this game was in the 4.5 region, suggesting you should take the Browns to cover. However, it’s within the margin where it’s hard to play with any certainty. Therefore, this is another teaser or ML parlay candidate. A same game parlay, taking the Steelers ML with the under at 48 points, is the play I am looking at here.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Pick: Steelers as part of an ML parlay or a teaser at their ML price and under 48 in a teaser
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Falcons +180; Vikings -218
- Total: 45.5
This line is somewhat baffling because, despite some recent stumbles, the Minnesota Vikings are by far the better overall team by the metrics. They rank essentially the same as the Atlanta Falcons offensively but are polar opposites defensively. The only mitigation will be that Kirk Cousins practiced against the Vikings’ defense last year and could have some insight into their plans and calls.
Taking the Vikings -5.5 feels too easy, but Cousins is not playing at a high level right now, and we just saw him struggle against another top-five offense in the Los Angeles Chargers. The revenge-game element and Cousins’ familiarity with Minnesota is certainly a concern, but I am riding the Vikings -5 and taking them as part of an ML parlay this week.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Falcons 17
Pick: Vikings -5.5 and part of an ML parlay
New Orleans Saints (-5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Saints -205; Giants +170
- Total: 39.5
This has the makings of being a fairly forgettable game between the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants. Both teams rank inside the bottom 10 of our PR+ rankings, but the Saints do have a slight edge. They are better offensively and on special teams, while the two match up fairly close in overall defensive numbers.
It is uncomfortable to lay five points with this Saints team on the road. They are 1-4 on the road this year, with their only win coming indoors against the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 2, meaning they’re 0-3 outdoors this season. Two of those losses were by double digits against the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, while they also lost by one point on the road in Carolina.
This is a game in which the numbers say that New Orleans is the right side straight up, but laying five points is close to impossible. From a betting perspective, I’m going to pass this one altogether. It’s hard to even include the Saints in an ML parlay with better options at similar odds elsewhere.
Prediction: Saints 20, Giants 17
Pick: Pass
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Raiders +250; Buccaneers -310
- Total: 44.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just escaped Carolina with a win, and now they host a Las Vegas Raiders team in a situation where they could move back into the lead of the NFC South with four games to play. The Buccaneers are by far the better team, but this was a slightly different Raiders team we saw with Aidan O’Connell under center on Black Friday.
Both teams are mediocre defensively, so this could be high scoring, especially if the Buccaneers’ offense can get back on track. The Raiders’ offense ranks in the bottom five offensively but is closer to league average with O’Connell than it was with Gardner Minshew II.
The Buccaneers proved in Week 12 that they can beat bad teams, but the Raiders have put up a good fight the last two weeks. The over is the most enticing play here, and the lean ATS is to the Buccaneers. There is also another SGP option here where you take Tampa Bay down below three points and bring the total down below 40.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Raiders 20
Pick: Over 44.5 and Buccaneers 1.5 with over 38.5 in a SGP
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +185; Titans -225
- Total: 40
This is another one of those highly forgettable games that could easily get lost in the back of your viewing mind next Sunday. Once we have a game like that, it immediately screams pass to me unless there is something glaringly wrong in the line.
That’s not the case here.
The metrics tell you that the Tennessee Titans are the better team defensively, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are better offensively. But the eye test and the short-term metrics over recent weeks tell a different story.
Tennessee has allowed 23+ points in each of its last four games, while Jacksonville has scored just 33 in its last three, with 14 of those coming in a ferocious fourth-quarter comeback in Week 13.
There are too many variables at play here to like any side of this. Can you really lay 4.5 points with Will Levis and a Titans’ defense that is seemingly crumbling? Equally, can you trust Mac Jones, who led his team to 13 points in two starts (albeit against very good defenses), or Trevor Lawrence, who looked far from 100% before getting hurt?
Passing on this game is the smart option.
Prediction: Titans 23, Jaguars 20
Pick: Pass
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Packers +154; Cardinals -135
- Total: 44.5
The game between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals in Phoenix will have huge implications on the NFC West title, but predicting which way it could go is challenging.
The Arizona Cardinals sit higher in our PR+, with a significant advantage in offensive numbers but a significant downgrade defensively when looking at the season as a whole. However, Arizona’s offense has struggled in the last two weeks, while the defense has been trending up for the last four games.
The Seattle Seahawks are a little more consistent in their performances and are capable of capitalizing on any mistakes. Their fight back against the Jets this week was impressive and was sparked by an incredible defensive moment.
In a game that is essentially a coin flip, it makes sense to give a slight edge to the home team in terms of the line. The Cardinals get the slight edge for us in the same way that the sportsbooks view it. The total is also pretty much where you would set it for a game being played in a dome.
Prediction: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills (-4) at Los Angeles Rams
- Moneyline: Bills -198; Rams +164
- Total: 49
The Buffalo Bills are on a tear right now. They’ve won seven in a row, with five being by more than one score.
Buffalo’s struggles, however, have come on the road. They lost in Baltimore and Houston while making a meal of things against the Jets and in Indianapolis. The Bills have a chance to fix that narrative in the next two weeks, and the first step comes against the Los Angeles Rams.
Our metrics paint a pretty clear picture that the Bills are the better team. They have the edge in all three phases, even though it’s come against an easier schedule than the Rams have played.
If it wasn’t for their struggles on the road at times this season, the Bills would be an easy pick against a Rams team that has been far from convincing.
This is one of those where it would be wrong to overthink it. Buffalo is the better team based on the metrics and the eye test. They’ve dominated LA’s divisional foes in recent weeks and have been sweeping middling to poor teams away in the last six. The total is in the right spot, so there’s no play to be made on that front.
Prediction: Bills 30, Rams 20
Pick: Bills -4
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Bears +185; 49ers -225
- Total: 44
What a fascinating matchup this is between a team that has fired its head coach and another that is reeling from injury issues and coming off two humiliating road losses in cold-weather games.
The Bears almost certainly are going to have a reaction to what transpired since Thanksgiving. If things under Matt Eberflus were that bad, this team should be galvanized in a way metrics cannot measure.
The metrics tell us that the San Francisco 49ers are the better team overall, thanks to a gulf offensively. Chicago has the better defense and special teams but has also played an easier schedule.
Many factors to this game are hard to quantify, and thus, it’s almost certainly going to be a pass from a betting perspective.
How do the Bears react to the change at head coach? Will the 49ers come out swinging with their backs to the wall, or will the sheer weight of injuries and disappointment overwhelm this group to the point they collapse in a heap?
Instinct says that the Bears getting the points is the better play, but not one I’m willing to put any money on.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Bears 20
Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Chargers +145; Chiefs -175
- Total: 43.5
The NFL schedule makers have not been particularly kind to the Chargers. After sending them cross-country on a short week for a 10 a.m. body clock game, they send them back on the road to Kansas City in a prime-time matchup against a Chiefs team that will almost certainly be playing with the “no one believes in our mentality.”
Overall, in terms of metrics, the two teams are fairly even. The Chiefs have the edge on offense, while the Chargers are the better team on defense and special teams.
They’ve played schedules that rank similarly as well. And as was the case earlier this season in Los Angeles, this could be a fairly even matchup. Both are coming off relatively lucky wins and are fighting in different playoff scenarios.
The line for this game is about right. According to the metrics, Kansas City is the marginally better team and has home-field advantage. Nevertheless, the Chargers are trending in a slightly better direction.
I do like the idea of an upset here, but not enough to bet on it.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Chiefs 20
Pick: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Bengals -250; Cowboys +205
- Total: 48.5
This Monday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys promised so much but is likely to deliver very little on that promise. Both teams are on the verge of playoff elimination, which will add a little spice to this game if there is a win-or-go-home type element to it.
This is another very even game in terms of metrics. The Bengals are by far the better offense, but they’re also by far the worst of the two defenses. The Cowboys have also played better on special teams.
The Bengals have been involved in several shootouts this year, but I question whether Cooper Rush can go toe-to-toe in one against Joe Burrow and that offense.
There is something intriguing about the Cowboys getting six points at home with the potential for them to score plenty of points against this Bengals team. Cincinnati is 2-4 this year when scoring over 30 points, demonstrating just how bad the defense is.
The two ways to play this are to take the Bengals in an ML parlay and then take the over in a game that could easily dissolve into madness at AT&T Stadium next Monday.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Cowboys 24
Pick: Bengals ML as part of a parlay and over 48.5