We have reached Thanksgiving week, which means the return of a full 16-game NFL slate for us to break down. The action is hotting up and there is plenty to digest in the week ahead, with only a three-day break until we get three games on Thursday.
Using our PFN Insights and metrics, we give our NFL picks and predictions for the 16 games spanning Thanksgiving starting in Detroit through Monday Night Football and wrapping up the week in Denver.
NFL Week 13 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5)
- Moneyline: Bears +425; Lions -575
- Total: 48
On the surface, everything suggests that backing the Detroit Lions here is the right play. They are on top of our Power Rankings+ metric by some distance and rank above the Chicago Bears in all phases of the game while playing a harder schedule. They are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) at home and 9-2 ATS on the entire season.
However, the Bears have been a tough opponent for the Vikings and Packers in consecutive weeks. Chicago covered in both games, and it’s clear the Bears have stepped up their plate from their woeful run coming out of the bye week.
With that said, the Lions are a step above those two teams, and both of those games were played in Chicago.
The short week should favor the better head coach (Dan Campbell) and the veteran quarterback (Jared Goff), but there’s a risk Detroit looks past this game with a huge matchup against Green Bay next Thursday. Additionally, the Lions have not won on Thanksgiving since 2016, with the Bears beating them three times on Turkey Day since then.
History tells you not to back the Lions on Thanksgiving, but this is a different level of team to the one we’ve seen in recent years. I like Detroit to win, but covering over 10 points makes me nervous on the short week, so the best option would be to look to tease this game down to around 4.5 or five points and pair it with under 54. I like the under at 48, but a same game parlay is very intriguing.
Prediction: Lions 24, Bears 17
Pick: Lions -4.5 & Under 54 in a teaser, and Under 48
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4)
- Moneyline: Giants +164; Cowboys -198
- Total: 38
It might be a good time to bank some brownie points with your family and step away from football for a few hours during the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys matchup. This is set to be a matchup between Tommy DeVito and Cooper Rush, which is hardly the headline matchup the NFL would have hoped for.
The numbers for both teams this season tell you that this game should be close. The Giants’ numbers are mostly formed with Daniel Jones, and DeVito is a downgrade on that front.
Therefore, the Cowboys should, in theory, be the play. But are you really trusting your money to Cooper Rush on Thanksgiving? This game is a pass.
Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 17
Pick: Pass
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +154; Packers -185
- Total: 47.5
To close out Thanksgiving, a fascinating matchup featuring two teams that have had QB injury issues this year will go head-to-head in Lambeau Field. The Green Bay Packers are higher in our PR+ rankings thanks to a tougher strength of schedule and slightly superior special teams play. However, when you isolate just the offense and defense numbers, these two teams are extremely well-matched.
Both offenses have generally been good with their starting quarterback under center, while the defenses have blown hot and cold, which could make this a back-and-forth contest.
The weather forecast could impact this game, with a warm-weather team traveling North to play a night game in what should be freezing conditions. It won’t be Kansas City cold, but it will be far from a Miami evening, with temperatures dipping to around 25.
The weather makes me lean towards the Packers to close out Thanksgiving. The Miami Dolphins have beaten mediocre teams in recent weeks, and that run of softer matchups ends here.
Somewhere in the region of three to seven points for the Packers feels right. If this line gets to three, then I would look to take Green Bay.
Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20
Pick: Packers -3 (if the line gets there)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13)
- Moneyline: Raiders +525; Chiefs -750
- Total: 42.5
Last week, I advised you to take the Kansas City Chiefs laying 11 points in Carolina, and they made a mess of it. However, that was a Panthers team trending upward this season, and this is a Las Vegas Raiders team whose trend arrow is pointing straight at the floor.
I don’t love laying 13 points, but teasing the Chiefs down to around seven and pairing it with another game is a solid option here. Kansas City may well cover the 13 against either Aidan O’Connell or Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but we thought that with 11 points against Bryce Young.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13
Pick: Chiefs -7 in a teaser
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Seahawks -125; Jets +105
- Total: 42
The way things are going with the New York Jets, all signs point to backing a Seattle Seahawks team that has won two huge games in a row against division rivals. However, with inconsistency plaguing their performances, this Seahawks team is a tough one to back.
Logic tells you that the Jets should come out fighting. There have been some bad stories coming out about the situation in that franchise right now, and there should be a fight to put it right. The problem is that stories like that have the ability to demoralize as much as they have the ability to galvanize.
The numbers tell you that the Seahawks are the better team, but not by enough to go and cover as a road favorite. Seattle is 2-0 in 1 p.m. ET kickoffs this year and 1-0-1 ATS. I lean towards the Seahawks, but there are too many variables in this game to feel comfortable putting any significant level of investment into it.
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Jets 20
Pick: Pass
Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Moneyline: Texans -265; Jaguars +215
- Total: 43
As of Monday morning, we do not know Trevor Lawrence’s status, which will impact how this line moves. If Lawrence is healthy, this line probably drops a little to somewhere in the 4.5-point region. But if Mac Jones is confirmed as the starter, then it will likely be around 7.5 points.
It shouldn’t matter, really, but the Houston Texans are a tough team to judge right now. As favorites, the Texans are 3-5-1 ATS after failing to cover and losing outright to the Titans. Our metrics tell us that Tennessee is a better team than the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a bottom-five NFL team this season.
The best way to approach this game right now would be to tease the Texans down close to the moneyline and pair it with another game. If the line drops below 4.5 with the news of Lawrence playing, then Houston would be an intriguing ATS pick. However, anything five or above is a tough sell.
Prediction: Texans 26, Jaguars 20
Pick: Texans ML in a parlay or teaser and anything below -4 ATS
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-6)
- Moneyline: Titans +215; Commanders -265
- Total: 44
A month ago, you would have run to the window to place a bet on the Washington Commanders laying just six points at home against the Tennessee Titans. However, the last four weeks have been bad for the Commanders.
Washington has gone 1-3 in the last four outings and required a Hail Mary to get that one win. In the same time span, the Titans are 2-2, having shown offensive improvements throughout.
It’s still hard to back the Titans straight up or even getting six points. The season-long numbers suggest that the Commanders are the better team, and this could be a get-right spot for them as they try to reset themselves. However, all the numbers pointed to the same for the Texans last week, and look what happened there.
Passing on this game might be the best way to go, but the Washington moneyline in a parlay or a teaser could be an option.
Prediction: Commanders 24, Titans 20
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +164; Vikings -198
- Total: 46.5
This is another game where if you can figure out these two teams, well done.
Heading into their bye week, the Arizona Cardinals were looking fantastic, yet they couldn’t muster any offense of note against the Seahawks. Going on the road to Seattle in November is tough for a warm-weather dome-based team, so it may well be we see that game turn out to be the outlier. Arizona only has one more outdoor game this season (Carolina).
The Minnesota Vikings looked to be back on track against the Bears in Week 12 but let the game slip through their grasp in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. It hasn’t been convincing, but the Vikings are on a four-game winning streak, with a top-five defense in the league driving their success. They’ve fallen into the bottom half of the top 10 in our PR+ rankings but still have a slight edge over the Cardinals.
These two teams are evenly matched overall but in different ways. Arizona is strong on offense but has looked better defensively in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Vikings have a strong defense and an enigmatic offense.
Minnesota has the advantage both offensively and defensively but has also played an easier schedule. The Vikings should be too much for this Cardinals team, but Kyler Murray is the potential X-factor in this one.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Cardinals 20
Pick: Vikings -4
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
- Moneyline: Chargers -125; Falcons +105
- Total: 47
The NFL scheduling team hasn’t done the Los Angeles Chargers any favors here with a short week, cross-country trip to Atlanta for an early matchup against a team coming off a bye. In the space of six days, the Chargers will play a 5:15 p.m. body clock game and a 10 a.m. one. The West Coast team traveling east for an early kickoff is generally an overplayed narrative, but this spot feels particularly brutal.
If you were to look at this game in a vacuum, the Chargers should have too much for the Atlanta Falcons. The Chargers have been significantly better on defense and special teams, while the Falcons have been marginally better on offense. Atlanta has played a tougher schedule to this point but has also stumbled in weird spots.
The straight numbers say to take Los Angeles laying the points, but it might just be worth holding on to see what happens against Baltimore. Worst case, they look dominant and this line moves up a little, but you might be able to get the Chargers as slight underdogs if they struggle against the Ravens.
The Falcons’ defense shouldn’t be able to stop the Chargers, and Los Angeles’ defense should be too good for a mediocre Atlanta offense.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Falcons 20
Pick: Pass for now
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Steelers +124; Bengals -148
- Total: 47
The AFC North has been wild this season, with everyone seemingly capable of beating anyone in any given week. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be desperate to put right the wrongs from last week, but the Cincinnati Bengals can’t be underestimated.
Cincinnati’s offense has been really strong and should be able to make plays on Pittsburgh’s defense. Equally, the Steelers should be able to score relatively freely against the Bengals’ defense, which has allowed 34+ points in three of their last four and five of 11 games this season.
This could be viewed as a must-win game for both sides, with the Steelers needing to keep their buffer to the Ravens for the division and the Bengals’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread but with a very winnable few games coming up.
The numbers tell you that Pittsburgh is the superior team here. However, we’ve seen in the last three weeks within this division that the numbers don’t tell the full story.
These coaching staffs know each other so well at this point that there’s more to the game than metrics and numbers. Passing on this game is probably the smart move because the range of outcomes is wide.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 23
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Colts -148; Patriots +124
- Total: 43
This is another game where trusting either team with your money feels somewhat foolish. The New England Patriots have shown multiple times this year that they are capable of laying an absolute egg at any point, and the Indianapolis Colts’ performances swing wildly from week to week, regardless of who is under center.
It’s impossible to put money on Anthony Richardson as a road favorite, but backing the Patriots at all feels very risky. Numerically, this game favors the Colts slightly, but the weather could be the equalizer for a quarterback with a warm-weather background in Florida playing in close-to-freezing conditions.
Prediction: Colts 23, Patriots 20
Pick: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -270; Panthers +220
- Total: 46
We saw in Week 12 what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are capable of when they are firing on all cylinders. The offense did a fantastic job against a defense that had been good for the majority of this season. The Buccaneers’ defensive numbers this week will be somewhat flattering, given they were facing a Giants’ offense in peril, but the overall signs were promising as they look to finish the season strongly.
This game against the Carolina Panthers doesn’t look as easy as it did a month ago. The Panthers are developing on offense and should be able to score points against Tampa Bay’s defense. Still, Carolina’s defense still leaves much to be desired and will have trouble stopping one of the better offenses in the NFL.
This is a must-win game for the Buccaneers in order to keep the pressure on the Falcons for the division. They should have too much for Carolina, but covering six points, as mentioned, doesn’t look as easy as it did a month or six weeks ago.
Taking the Buccaneers’ moneyline as part of a teaser or parlay is a better play than taking them laying the full six points. The over is very tempting in a game that could be defense-optional.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 23
Pick: Buccaneers ML in a parlay or teaser and Over 46
Los Angeles Rams (-2) at New Orleans Saints
- Moneyline: Rams -130; Saints +110
- Total: 46.5
Both the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints have had mixed fortunes so far this season. The Rams’ defense struggled to sustain its levels against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, which has been a common theme for Los Angeles at times in 2024. The offense is also tough to get a read on, as it sometimes mixes the superb with the ridiculous.
The Saints, meanwhile, have won two straight games to slightly change the outlook of their season. They are still among the bottom 12 teams in our rankings and are rightly underdogs in this one. However, New Orleans does have home-field advantage and is coming off its bye, which should mean they’re a little healthier. They are still undermanned offensively, which makes them somewhat of a boom-bust offense.
These are two fairly evenly matched teams, and it’s hard to back either one. This could end up being a high-scoring game, with both teams having below-average defenses this year. The best play here might be to take the over rather than back either side.
Prediction: Rams 30, Saints 27
Pick: Over 46.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Eagles +120; Ravens -142
- Total: 50
The game of the week may very well be the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in a battle of two teams chasing division titles. Both teams rank inside the top six of the PFN Power Rankings entering Monday Night Football in Week 12. The Ravens will have to deal with a shorter week, but both have had to travel across the country after playing in Los Angeles this week.
The numbers between these teams are very even overall, but the makeup of this game suits the Eagles. They are by far the superior defense, and while their offensive numbers are not in the same stratosphere as Baltimore’s this season, they should be able to move the ball against this Ravens defense.
Philadelphia’s offense is more of a grind-you-into-dust type group, but its passing game should be able to have chunk plays in this one.
Despite the fact that the Ravens have consistently been ranked higher in our PR+ this season, this matchup really suits the Eagles, who are the team trending up the fastest in recent weeks. The only hesitation is that Philadelphia’s schedule has been really soft this season, with its only win of substance having come all the way back in Week 1.
This has the makings of a statement game for the Eagles. The numbers here say this is a push with the Ravens laying points. However, the matchup dynamics have me looking to take the Eagles in what could be a slow first half before bursting into life in the second half.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Ravens 23
Pick: Eagles +2.5
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
- Moneyline: 49ers +250; Bills -310
- Total: 46
It’s tough to know whether this line is factoring in Brandon Allen or Brock Purdy as the San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback. It might be a hedge, as it seems too low for Allen and too high for Purdy. Therefore, depending on how Purdy’s health progresses this week, we may see this swing a couple of points either way.
The numbers give a slight lean to the Buffalo Bills, but laying 6.5 points against what is ultimately still a good team in the 49ers is a lot. However, the Bills have won four of their last five by more than a touchdown, and six of their nine wins have been by a margin of seven points or more.
With uncertainty over Purdy’s health, and the Bills riding a wave, they are the side that I am leaning in this one. In terms of what bet to make, the play here looks to be to tease Buffalo down to around 0.5 points. You can pair that with another game or look to take the total down to 40. The Bills should be capable of getting to around 27-30 points in this one, while the 49ers should be able to get to at least 10 and potentially over 13.
Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 17
Pick: Bills -0.5 and over 40 in a teaser
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +190; Broncos -230
- Total: 41.5
This Monday Night Football game has become surprisingly intriguing with the Cleveland Browns showing in recent weeks that they can win games against good teams. Going on the road to Denver will be tough, but the extra rest should help, and they’ve shown that the elements are not an issue for them.
The Broncos are rightly favored. They are shaping up to be a borderline top-10 team this year, with the offense now playing like a league-average group and the defense continuing to impress.
Cleveland’s defense is a solid group, while the offense is enigmatic. Jameis Winston has struggled on the road, so it wouldn’t be wise to expect too much from him this week.
Ultimately, the play here is to take the Broncos to cover. They’ve proven multiple times that against lesser teams, they are capable of winning and doing so relatively comfortably. With the bye next week, there should be no risk of Denver overlooking this game with a focus on the future. With two good defenses, the under could be interesting here as well.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Browns 13
Pick: Broncos -5.5 and Under 41.5